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Hot Topic in Science: 2019-nCoV: Coronavirus Outbreak 2020

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2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

I think the fact that the daily growth in new cases is not exponential anymore is a clear sign; if it was still business as usual we would be seeing explosive growth by now.

I hope this is right! 

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

I think the fact that the daily growth in new cases is not exponential anymore is a clear sign; if it was still business as usual we would be seeing explosive growth by now.


I am hopeful that you are right. I do not think we can draw any conclusions yet until everyone can be tested rather than sent home from hospitals because they “just have bilateral pneumonia but they can breathe on their own.”

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2 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


I am hopeful that you are right. I do not think we can draw any conclusions yet until everyone can be tested rather than sent home from hospitals because they “just have bilateral pneumonia but they can breathe on their own.”

 

I absolutely agree that we are undercounting non-severe cases by a mile, but NY has been relatively consistent with its testing policy so it can still be a somewhat useful proxy for the number of severe cases, which should track the overall number of cases. 

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5 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

Ok here’s the deal with whether or not social distancing is working @SnowWolf87 and others

 

1) were no longer experiencing exponential growth; could be real, could be due to testing limits, could be both

2) asymptomatic people are still not getting tested. So we have no idea what’s really happening until the antibody test gets approved 

3) it’s likely that social distancing which has been in place for almost 10 days is beginning to work. But remember people who are positive today got infected 7-14 days ago, so it’s really just the beginning 

4) keep in mind that sooo many commuters to the city are no longer here. That’s a huge difference too

5) it is absolutely too early to say definitively despite what others (including myself) are suspecting.

Yes I think just by the fact we did something means we have to see some kind of net result from it. 

 

Are we out of the woods yet? Not by any means, but I think we are on the right path.

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1 minute ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Yes I think just by the fact we did something means we have to see some kind of net result from it. 

 

Are we out of the woods yet? Not by any means, but I think we are on the right path.

Correct. The one MAJOR problem is that as was alluded to above by I think @NJwxguy78 these admissions in the icu tend to be quite long for the severely affected patients. 550 patients discharged from the hospital and 1000 admitted  yesterday in NYS. Those numbers over time are what lead to overcrowding of hospitals and lack of icu beds and ventilators. Also, this improvement will lag when the the numbers peak for the same reasons. Although I completely agree we are probably starting to see the curve bending (not flatten YEt)

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2 hours ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Global CFR hovering right around 4.5 4.6 percent based on total deaths/total cases.

 

Yikes

I think if globally everyone could get tested the CFR would easily be well below 1%.  I would bet millions of people had it by now imo. 

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2 minutes ago, Adam said:

I think if globally everyone could get tested the CFR would easily be well below 1%.  I would bet millions of people had it by now imo. 

Could very well be true.

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CovidTracking updates:

 

Total tests: 626,667 (99,447 positive to 527,220 negative)

Up 107,000 from yesterday, so hopefully we've at least hit a consistent 100k daily.

 

State leaders:

NY: 145,753

WA: 46,380

MA: 29,371

NJ: 25,372

TX: 23,666

 

(CA reports 88,400 but there's uncertainty in the reporting, see https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california/)

 

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Updated NYC death statistics:

 

image.png.1920ea2ab834c37b17daf9ed6c12b5ca.png

The age demo skew would be even more pronounced if adjusted for what percentage of the total population is 75+

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We're going to own large chunks of airline companies...?

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2 minutes ago, Slantwise said:

The age demo skew would be even more pronounced if adjusted for what percentage of the total population is 75+

 

Over 75's are 5.9% of NYC's population. 65 to 74 is 7.7%. Combined, that's 13.6% of the population accounting for 75% of the deaths so far.

 

https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/population-geography/pop-demography.htm

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How could an individual or company support the medical efforts? How does one "help"?

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3 hours ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Unfortunately many are still not heeding the word.

 

So I think its gonna lie somewhere in the middle assuming that those who are not taking care are going to continue spreading.

 

The police just busted a wedding in Lakewood,NJ, in addition to one late last week also.

 

Even in my small town the kids are playing like it's a holiday, probably spreading it back home to the parents and grandparents soon enough.

On a serious note - I am waiting for the lawsuits to come due to these type of incidents. 

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New Italy numbers are rough. 969 new deaths 

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