Hot Topic in Science: 2019-nCoV: Coronavirus Outbreak 2020 - Page 385 - Political Discussion Topics - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
Jakkel138

Hot Topic in Science: 2019-nCoV: Coronavirus Outbreak 2020

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, NJwxguy78 said:


 

I have no idea why lawyers and judges seem to be so susceptible. Assume it’s the sheer number of people many see on a daily basis? I know of seven in my outer network. 

There's so much I could say about this... But to make light of it might be wrong... 🙃

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wxmd529 said:

My educated guess for peaking is 5-9 days. In NYC area. We’re getting there...

It looks like our peak may be well handled... 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It looks like our peak may be well handled... 

Real or sarcasm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jefflaw77 said:

This - I'm 42 - never smoked more than 10 cigarettes in my life, but who the F knows.. I not overweight, but not a bean stalk either.

 

I'm not a worry wart - but honestly- i don't want to go anywhere.  But i'm getting concerned - b/c i don't even want to run to a supermarket anymore and will need things sooner or later..

Same here, with a wife and son who are asthmatic/immunocompromised - son came home from RU on 3/3 and we've been in lockdown since, meaning no visiting or socializing with anyone else, period.  Apart from walks, which are safe in our low density neighborhood, I'm the only one who ventures out into public and that's rarely.  About once every week or so I go to either a late night convenience store (like Wawa) at about 2 am, so nobody is there or I might go to our Shop Rite at 11:30 pm (closes at midnight), when very few are there, if there are things we can only get there (like meat to freeze). 

 

I bring sanitizer to occasionally wash my hands with and am a nut about not touching my face.  We wash almost all perishables in warm/soapy water and rinse well (some debate whether to do that with produce, but I'd rather risk diarrhea than coronavirus), while the non-perishables are left in the garage for >72 hours, the longest documented time for virus viability (on stainless steel and hard plastic; cardboard/paper are ~24 hrs, but we just leave it all out for 72, including our mail, as it's just easier).

 

And to minimize trips, our local deli will take orders for perishables (eggs, milk, bread, butter, lunchmeat, etc.) over the phone and will put them in the trunk of my car, so no contact.  When I get home I wash everything except the lunchmeat in warm, soapy water, so I can use them immediately (the lunchmeat is left untouched for 3 days, just in case).  We also order takout 2-3 times a week as a break for us (only hot food and we transfer all entrees to clean plates when we get back and chuck all containers and wash hands after that) and they'll do the same thing with prepaying and dropping the items in the trunk, so no contact.  We also get as much as we can delivered, but that's harder these days.  

 

I'm sure it's all a bit of overkill, but with high risk loved ones, I don't mind.  Also, having just retired in Dec makes this far easier for me, although I did go back to work for 8 hrs/wk in Feb consulting, essentially with my same boss - but Merck has had almost everyone telecommuting since about 3/16, so no issue for me and our son is finishing his MS at RU and all his classed are on-line (2 were before this anyway).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

Essentially agree but I’m not as bullish as 3-5 days because that seems quick but could be 

I was exactly right, 8 days in advance, on when the US would hit 5000 cases and was only off by one day, 5 days in advance, on when we'd hit 80K, although like the financial ads always say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, lol. I hope I'm right, as I'm sure everyone else does - and if I am, both NY/NJ will come in moderately under the worst case projections on hospitalizations/ICUs, although I think we'll still continue to see issues with proper deployment of what the system has, as it's tough to manage with small inventories and fairly large incoming patient spikes, at times.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

I was exactly right, 8 days in advance, on when the US would hit 5000 cases and was only off by one day, 5 days in advance, on when we'd hit 80K, although like the financial ads always say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, lol. I hope I'm right, as I'm sure everyone else does - and if I am, both NY/NJ will come in moderately under the worst case projections on hospitalizations/ICUs, although I think we'll still continue to see issues with proper deployment of what the system has, as it's tough to manage with small inventories and fairly large incoming patient spikes, at times.  

What's the accuracy or validity of those maps?

 

It has to be a "smart thermometer" to have the data uploaded no? So what exactly can we conclude from this?

 

3 to 5 days seems extraordinarily optimistic for an NYC peak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

What's the accuracy or validity of those maps?

 

It has to be a "smart thermometer" to have the data uploaded no? So what exactly can we conclude from this?

 

3 to 5 days seems extraordinarily optimistic for an NYC peak.

Here in CT, new cases have gone up 31% Sunday, 29% Monday and 21% today so good trend to see-small sample size-but around here appears no one is really out other than walkers/runners etc.   Seems the vast majority are taking it seriously and staying away-I'm cautiously optimistic-also hoping the warmer weather/UV strength comes into play too ( I know it's questionable) but can't hurt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Here in CT, new cases have gone up 31% Sunday, 29% Monday and 21% today so good trend to see-small sample size-but around here appears no one is really out other than walkers/runners etc.   Seems the vast majority are taking it seriously and staying away-I'm cautiously optimistic-also hoping the warmer weather/UV strength comes into play too ( I know it's questionable) but can't hurt.

Noticing the same here, most everyone is staying put except for some walkers or runners.

 

Dont know about the warmth though, cases are exploding in Louisiana. 

 

I think it slows it some, but in my opinion it's gonna run its course. Of course it can be altered by social distancing, but a lot of middle America is not taking it seriously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Noticing the same here, most everyone is staying put except for some walkers or runners.

 

Dont know about the warmth though, cases are exploding in Louisiana. 

 

I think it slows it some, but in my opinion it's gonna run its course. Of course it can be altered by social distancing, but a lot of middle America is not taking it seriously.

I agree-the virus will have its way in the end.   I see this moving south and west with time-like a wave overspreading the country, we'll be out of the worst, but other places will be entering it. (it is interesting that South America and Australia have not seen huge #'s)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's into our company now. One of our managers (not mine) lost his life to the virus...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I agree-the virus will have its way in the end.   I see this moving south and west with time-like a wave overspreading the country, we'll be out of the worst, but other places will be entering it. (it is interesting that South America and Australia have not seen huge #'s)

 

Also...CT numbers are in, looks like new cases is just about the same (testing cap?) But deaths unfortunately took a massive leap from yesterday (33 new and 2 yesterday)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowWolf87 said:

 

Also...CT numbers are in, looks like new cases is just about the same (testing cap?) But deaths unfortunately took a massive leap from yesterday (33 new and 2 yesterday)

they added 17 previously unreported deaths so that skews today's #.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I agree-the virus will have its way in the end.   I see this moving south and west with time-like a wave overspreading the country, we'll be out of the worst, but other places will be entering it. (it is interesting that South America and Australia have not seen huge #'s)

Brazil had 1000 new cases today vs 300 yesterday....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

they added 17 previously unreported deaths so that skews today's #.

Thanks for mentioning that, still an unfortunate large jump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

What's the accuracy or validity of those maps?

 

It has to be a "smart thermometer" to have the data uploaded no? So what exactly can we conclude from this?

 

3 to 5 days seems extraordinarily optimistic for an NYC peak.

 

Last night's post on this with the link to the Times article.  Basically, this is a network of 1MM internet connected thermometers, so the data are all real time and have shown real trends in regular flu far faster than the CDC network of data collection from doctor's.  The data also revealed where hotspots occurred from large gatherings, like Mardi Gras and spring break in FL, as well as the decrease in fevers after our area implemented much more restrictive policies in mid-March:

 

The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.  Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier.

 

The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days. By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowWolf87 said:

Thanks for mentioning that, still an unfortunate large jump.

yeah the Governor said today in his presser it's going to get ugly with death rates next 2 weeks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

 

Last night's post on this with the link to the Times article.  Basically, this is a network of 1MM internet connected thermometers, so the data are all real time and have shown real trends in regular flu far faster than the CDC network of data collection from doctor's.  The data also revealed where hotspots occurred from large gatherings, like Mardi Gras and spring break in FL, as well as the decrease in fevers after our area implemented much more restrictive policies in mid-March:

 

The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.  Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier.

 

The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days. By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.

 

 

Interesting thanks for the information.

 

Could it also be a function (the downward trends) of flu season wrapping up?

 

I just dont want to make too many assumptions here regarding NYC. As I think the peak is still realistically 7 days away if we are to assume we are about 7 to 10 days behind Italy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CovidTracking updates:

 

Tests: 1,048,971 (+104,000 from yesterday. Note VPOTUS claims 1.1M+)

Positive: 184,770

Negative: 864,201

Per capita: 1 in 315

 

State leaders:

NY: 205,186 (as noted earlier, first state to get inside 1/100)

WA: 65,462

FL: 60,623

MA: 46,935

NJ: 45,773

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WxInTheBronx said:

Real or sarcasm?

Real. I'm not ready to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief, however, if we peak in a week, we may actually not crash our healthcare system 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Real. I'm not ready to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief, however, if we peak in a week, we may actually not crash our healthcare system 

Yes, NYC may be able to handle this. 

 

Other areas....let's see how they prepare.

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...