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Hot Topic in Science: 2019-nCoV: Coronavirus Outbreak 2020


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1 hour ago, MesoBanding said:

To add to this - the USA is 32.5 times the size of Italy geographically but only roughly 6 times the population. 
 

Italy's total area is 116,350 square miles or 301,340 square kilometers, the 72nd largest country in the world. Almost 40 per cent of that is mountainous territory. The area of the US is 9,826,675 square kilometers by comparison. Thus the US is about 32.5 times the size of Italy.Dec

But our major cities are more densely populated than Lombardy or Italy in general, so they're at much greater risk of major impacts that much of the rest of the US.  The DC-Boston megalopolis has 52 million people and a population density of about 1000/square-mile (vs. the US avg of 80/square-mile), which is twice Italy's overall density of about 500/square mile.  Same for other major cities in the US.  

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Hi folks - just a quick drop in here. I know things have progressed quite a bit with the situation. Frankly, I haven't seen any new news in the past three days, I've got a lot of catching up to do. Re

Me and the crew!     

Some major updates this morning coming from yet unreleased/unpublished data for NYC in particular. Highlights;   1) we’re currently peaking/have peaked  2) lockdown/social distancing wa

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7 minutes ago, CCB! said:

CDC Director Update:

 

Few highlights:

  • Declines to say whether there's a coronavirus "pandemic." He says it's clearly a "massive global outbreak."
  • "This epidemic started in China. … 99% of cases that occurred last night occurred outside of China. This isn’t China. Right now, the epicenter – the new China is Europe.”
  • Says the U.S. is beyond containment of the coronavirus in some areas of the country. "In general, we’re in a containment/blended mitigation, in some areas we’re in high mitigation."
  • Says most healthy people who get sick should "go to home isolation" for 14 days and "do everything they can" to not infect others. "Rest, drink a lot of fluids," and "please, please, please honor the home isolation."
  • Average age of coronavirus death in Italy is 82-84.
  • "You pray that the virus doesn't get through a community transmission zone. if it does, it will come through a nursing home."

 

That's someone encouraging especially coming from the CDC itself and not a politician

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"The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Nassau County has increased to 19, Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said at a Tuesday morning news briefing, as the state was considering new measures to contain the virus' spread.  She said two of the new positive cases were school bus drivers. Officials have been in contact with the 80 children they were in contact with on their routes." via Newsday

 

All of our Glen Cove and Oyster Bay students stayed home today presumably because of district robocalls.   Most of the kids from Hempstead also stayed home. My program is small - only about 60 kids on the roster.   

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Interesting Q and A from CNN (with input from CDC) on airline travel:

Q. Since a plane's cabin keeps circulating air, will I get sick if another passenger is sick?

Most viruses don't spread easily on airplanes because of how the air circulates and is filtered, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
Modern commercial jets recirculate 10-50% of the air in the cabin, mixed with outside air.
"The recirculated air passes through a series of filters 20--30 times per hour," the CDC says.
"Furthermore, air generally circulates in defined areas within the aircraft, thus limiting the radius of distribution of pathogens spread by small-particle aerosols. As a result, the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases."
Still, try to avoid contact with anyone sneezing or coughing. And if you're feeling sick, cover your entire mouth and nose with the inside of your elbow when you cough or sneeze.

Q. If traveling on a plane, how do I stay safe?

It's not the cabin air you need to worry about. It's keeping your hands clean.
Always be mindful of where your hands have been, travel medicine specialist Dr. Richard Dawood said.
Airport handrails, door handles and airplane lavatory levers are notoriously dirty.
"It is OK to touch these things as long as you then wash or sanitize your hands before contaminating your face, touching or handling food," Dawood said.
"Hand sanitizers are great. So are antiseptic hand wipes, which you can also use to wipe down armrests, remote controls at your seat and your tray table."
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32 minutes ago, CCB! said:

DJI/S&P now in the red after early gains.

 

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Well bin Salman upped the ante on Vlad by saying that the Saudi Arabia Oil Co will raise daily output to 12.3 mln a day in April which I think is beyond their maximum capacity. A week ago they were talking cuts. Despite, at some point this will be a net positive for the consumer etc. Just follow any part of the yield curve, and you’ll know what equity markets will do. Snapshot of 10yr 1 day. As you can see, stock price action is almost perfectly correlated to rates.
 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

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NJ has recorded its first COVID-19 related death :( - Man in his 60's from Bergen County.

 

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Additional context:

 

 

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13 minutes ago, CCB! said:

National Guard being called out in New Rochelle.

 

 

 

"The National Guard will deliver food and clean schools in the zone during the containment period, which will last two weeks, Cuomo said.

All schools in the area will close, and large gatherings have been canceled.

 

People can go in and out of the containment zone, and small businesses can remain open, Cuomo said."

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Torn over the posting of this tweet from someone who is relatively trusted in media... On one hand, I think posting this without any additional context doesn't help the situation & fuels the narrative that the media isn't being responsible. I mean, most people in the area know about the increasing # of cases/developing clusters in the region by now.

 

But on the other, I'd imagine that there's more to it... Though if I was in his shoes, I'd have waited to gather & confirm additional info before posting this somewhat ominous, yet vague message.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Torn over the posting of this tweet from someone who is relatively trusted in media... On one hand, I think posting this without any additional context doesn't help the situation & fuels the narrative that the media isn't being responsible. I mean, most people in the area know about the increasing # of cases/developing clusters in the region by now.

 

But on the other, I'd imagine that there's more to it... Though if I was in his shoes, I'd have waited to gather & confirm additional info before posting this somewhat ominous, yet vague message.

 

 

I mean hasn't this been obvious for a while now? There's going to be so many people untested.

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3 minutes ago, amonte1219 said:

I mean hasn't this been obvious for a while now? There's going to be so many people untested.

That's my take on it too... Even those who aren't paying as close attention to the situation as we are in this thread, the message has been out there. 😕 - Agreed on the testing.

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31 minutes ago, Rygar said:

 

"The National Guard will deliver food and clean schools in the zone during the containment period, which will last two weeks, Cuomo said.

All schools in the area will close, and large gatherings have been canceled.

 

People can go in and out of the containment zone, and small businesses can remain open, Cuomo said."

A synagogue blocks from where I live has been closed indefinitely.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A synagogue blocks from where I live has been closed indefinitely.

I'm sure you're taking appropriate precautions up there, Don. But stay safe. Thanks for your updates, as you seem to be finding yourself right in the middle of this one.

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