February 1-2, 2020 -- Possible Light-Mod Snow Event - Page 4 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
33andrain

February 1-2, 2020 -- Possible Light-Mod Snow Event

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I am not quite ready to call the weekend storm threat dead yet but I will be if there aren't changes after the 12z runs tomorrow.

 

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Just now, fireguy286 said:

Lot of adjustments still dancing about.

trend-ecmwf_full-2020012812-f102.500hv.conus.gif

Notable for the ECMWF adjusting as much as it is still. Obviously we're still too progressive with the synoptic flow, but that is really not a terrible look on the most recent run. Soo very close 😕

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif

 

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00z tonight is going to be very interesting. The fact that when all the models move to the Euro and then the Euro/EPS moves west after leads me to believe the amount of short waves is something that models can’t handle right now until there is better sampling. 

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13 minutes ago, fireguy286 said:

EPS

download.png

download (1).png

download (2).png

Still enough Inside the benchmark to stay engaged. 

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Just now, 33andrain said:

Have to realize the entire h5 evolution here has changed. It's northern stream driven almost entirely, so the chances of the coastal bombing out enough or in time to save anyone south and east of NYC is minimal to near impossible. The "hits" you are seeing on the EPS and the Ukmet are warm solutions.

 

Yes.

download (3).png

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32 minutes ago, RAllen964 said:

00z tonight is going to be very interesting. The fact that when all the models move to the Euro and then the Euro/EPS moves west after leads me to believe the amount of short waves is something that models can’t handle right now until there is better sampling. 

Or they are moving to the middle ground for agreement?

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Fresh data coming in tonight from recon. Huge 0z suite coming up IMO. This is far from over.

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27 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

:what2:

Banter but I can't even tell you how many times a day i do this. 

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1 minute ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

AF309 did not go to our piece..

image.png

well that sucks. Why not? 

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2 minutes ago, Henry said:

well that sucks. Why not? 

I sadly don't know. But the atmosphere around it should give models a better idea as the pieces follow roughly the trajectory of recon.

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H5 looks better to me on the recent Euro with a closed low in the midwest and slightly more phasing 

 

12z top

18z bottom

 

5e30cdff59e2a.png

5e30cdf19bb12.png

5e30ce1e05dbe.png

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18z eps is west of 12z eps and actually has a better phase.

 

5e30d8d99524c.png

5e30d937d7711.png

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Pretty big jump west in 6 hours. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-total_precip_inch-0752800-1.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-total_precip_inch-0752800.png

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