February 1-2, 2020 -- Possible Light-Mod Snow Event - Page 9 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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February 1-2, 2020 -- Possible Light-Mod Snow Event

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Hour 72 starts as snow into or just W of NYC 

 

 

1580558400-Kg29VWad6s4.png

 

1580558400-eLUYxi6Suag.png

Yep , inland areas get a little something. 

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Great track, no phase. 

 

Models got the track right from 10 days out, whiffed on the N branch.

 

No biggie. 

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Great track, no phase. 

 

Models got the track right from 10 days out, whiffed on the N branch.

 

No biggie. 

??

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh72_trend.gif

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh72_trend.gif

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What an annoyance 

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45.png

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6 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

??

Not sure of the point of this post... Do you typically expect a perfect depiction ten days out to the present forecast period from operational models? These gifs are actually a pretty good pat on the back if you ask me. The storm signal was there the whole time on various pieces of guidance & with the exception of a rogue blip run here & there, quite consistent... Especially from the medium range, moving up in time.

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6 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

??

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh72_trend.gif

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh72_trend.gif

 

 

 

 

C5040CC8-3503-4F85-A53D-65B81BF10868.png

 

5e2c8cbe94703.png

 

 

C82F2571-5F17-4A8B-BDFD-361C76CDF460.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-24 at 10.48.56 PM.png

 

 

8B6D07C6-19BD-46A3-9FF8-A975A33919D8.gif

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

 

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_kuchera-0666400.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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2 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Not sure of the point of this post... Do you typically expect a perfect depiction ten days out to the present forecast period from operational models? These gifs are actually a pretty good pat on the back if you ask me. The storm signal was there the whole time on various pieces of guidance & with the exception of a rogue blip run here & there, quite consistent... Especially from the medium range, moving up in time.

It was because your typical jumps in the model had the low in the gulf, apps runner, BM, OTS. Not a "good track for 10 days out" IMO.

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And here the 18z NAM

 

Notice the " track " was spot on , but the models all saw a phase.

 

It`s why people are chasing " precip " with a 996 low instead of a 976 low.

 

So the result of an all S stream system is different with a bad air mass in place. 

 

 

namconus_z500_mslp_us_49.png

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

 

 

C5040CC8-3503-4F85-A53D-65B81BF10868.png

 

5e2c8cbe94703.png

 

 

C82F2571-5F17-4A8B-BDFD-361C76CDF460.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-24 at 10.48.56 PM.png

 

 

8B6D07C6-19BD-46A3-9FF8-A975A33919D8.gif

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

 

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_kuchera-0666400.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

Was your post referring to a good track 10 days out? Or what was it?

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

It was because your typical jumps in the model had the low in the gulf, apps runner, BM, OTS. Not a "good track for 10 days out" IMO.

 

The models had a BM low for the most part and only lost it in the mid range because there was no thing to capture it.

 

In the end it`s going to the BM and not phasing 

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Was your post referring to a good track 10 days out? Or what was it?

 

Read my last 2 posts 

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Screen Shot 2020-01-24 at 10.48.56 PM.png

 

 

namconus_z500_mslp_us_49.png

 

Not phased, hence the 20mb pressure difference.

 

The models had a handle on a BM track 

 

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9 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

It was because your typical jumps in the model had the low in the gulf, apps runner, BM, OTS. Not a "good track for 10 days out" IMO.

 

Was going to respond in more depth, but PB seems to have covered it, specifically with regard to track. It was noted that the upper evolution was different.

 

It's not my intention to pile on. My larger point being, there are times when models truly are awful... completely miss a signal, or completely hone in on a signal & then completely lose it. This wasn't one of those times.

 

It was there the whole time here & guidance has alluded to this type of evolution from ten days out, which is pretty impressive.

 

image.png

 

Current 60 hour forecast:

 

image.png

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6 minutes ago, CCB! said:

 

Was going to respond in more depth, but PB seems to have covered it, specifically with regard to track. It was noted that the upper evolution was different.

 

It's not my intention to pile on. My larger point being, there are times when models truly are awful... completely miss a signal, or completely hone in on a signal & then completely lose it. This wasn't one of those times.

 

It was there the whole time here & guidance has alluded to this type of evolution from ten days out, which is pretty impressive.

 

image.png

 

Current 60 hour forecast:

 

image.png

 

They did very well with the SWFE too.

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I think he's gained a better understanding, @Analog96 - no worries :)

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2 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Yea. Was confused at first. Understood now! Thanks all!

No problem, Matthew. 

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5 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

 

Dude - took me about 15 seconds to realize that Euro map was from days ago, lol.  

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This little low ruined the storm from phasing.  It created an exit route for the low.

 

20200129_224916.png

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