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Weather Threats: 2020 Edition


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You are out of your mind. This winter has been over for 45 days already. It’s never too early for warmth if it isn’t going to snow. 

interesting times are pending  

The 1st one to post an 840 hour GFS snowstorm next winter gets a 72 hour vacation! 

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I actually think the GGEM solution makes more sense.  
Not because I'm a snow weenie, but it just makes more sense.

Is the GFS outcome possible? Sure it is.  But it's very rare that you see a low stall and do loops like that for three days.

 

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5 hours ago, Analog96 said:

I actually think the GGEM solution makes more sense.  
Not because I'm a snow weenie, but it just makes more sense.

Is the GFS outcome possible? Sure it is.  But it's very rare that you see a low stall and do loops like that for three days.

 

With the constant vertically stacked closed low showing up on all guidance, I actually wouldn't bet against the surface low doing some "odd" things like that by that juncture. But I do concur that it'll correct east a bit. I think the question is where cyclogenesis initially occurs & the eventual phase. Theoretically, if not ostensibly, this is a good trend on the GFS & just what you would like to see. If one "wanted" something from this system, I'd say you'd want a weaker, further S southern vort which delays the phase & prevents the system from wrapping up too quick. You don't want to light that "wick" too early. That being said, I think there's a limit on how far this corrects east & I'd be more bullish on one of the follow up systems. This does look to be quite the rain & wind-maker though!

 

High-traffic environment, so naturally we should all expect some wild variations on deterministic guidance post five days for now until the respective models can sort out which disturbances are more likely to develop & interact. Fun times ahead!

36b57417-bfbb-4a81-a22d-0244ea4dee30.gif

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27 minutes ago, CCB! said:

With the constant vertically stacked closed low showing up on all guidance, I actually wouldn't bet against the surface low doing some "odd" things like that by that juncture. But I do concur that it'll correct east a bit. I think the question is where cyclogenesis initially occurs & the eventual phase. Theoretically, this is a good trend on the GFS & just what you would like to see. If we "want" something, I'd say we'd want a weaker, further S southern vort which delays the phase & prevents the system from wrapping up too quick. You don't want to light that "wick" too early. That being said, I think there's a limit on how far this corrects east & I'd be more bullish on one of the follow up systems.

 

High-traffic environment, so naturally we should all expect some wild variations on deterministic guidance post five days for now until the respective models can sort out which disturbances are more likely to develop & interact. Fun times ahead!

36b57417-bfbb-4a81-a22d-0244ea4dee30.gif

Only thing is, the GFS hangs that Monday low around so long it doesn't really give anything else a chance to develop.

Hence, the pattern that follows stays cold, but is dry.

Now, it could stay dry and something could develop much later, like 2010, but we'll see.

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2 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

Only thing is, the GFS hangs that Monday low around so long it doesn't really give anything else a chance to develop.

Hence, the pattern that follows stays cold, but is dry.

It's definitely a risk... Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the amped pattern, but no guarantees as they say. 

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7 minutes ago, CCB! said:

It's definitely a risk... Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the amped pattern, but no guarantees as they say. 

I'd take sustained cold and wait for a storm.  This year has generally been two unstable weeks, two calm weeks.

If we get the cold air to coincide with a stormy period, I'll take my chances.

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It's going to be a nasty system in our parts next week regardless. As the ULL occludes, we should see a period of very strong winds as @Analog96alluded to earlier. Several inches of rain probable too.

 

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2 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

I am starting to worry this huge (historic) PNA spike maybe just too early as there are some signs it rolls over in mid-december which will flood the CONUS with warmth...yet again.

Bro what? Show me proof

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2 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

I am starting to worry this huge (historic) PNA spike maybe just too early as there are some signs it rolls over in mid-december which will flood the CONUS with warmth...yet again.

I'm not really worried, I also wouldn't be any bit surprised if that occurred. This upcoming period, whether it delivers or not is just a welcome guest.

 

I'm not expecting a joyous second half of Dec, tbh. Though I'm looking forward to what Jan has in store, particularly from week 2 onward.

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This first system was always going to be a rain event.  A potent storm but not a frozen one for our area.  The next wave has/had a chance if everything worked out but even then inland (well inland) had the better chance.  It has been the 8th onward we were hoping for since this pattern has shown its face several days ago.  If we want an early season event we have to look 8th onward into mid December.  Can the pattern be favorable during that time period is the question.  

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9 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

I am starting to worry this huge (historic) PNA spike maybe just too early as there are some signs it rolls over in mid-december which will flood the CONUS with warmth...yet again.

We haven't had this size if a magnitude of a PNA in years. Let it play out first. 

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2 minutes ago, CCB! said:

I'm not really worried, I also wouldn't be any bit surprised if that occurred. This upcoming period, whether it delivers or not is just a welcome guest.

 

I'm not expecting a joyous second half of Dec, tbh. Though I'm looking forward to what Jan has in store, particularly from week 2 onward.

You just hate to see heights approaching 590! in Seattle with rain here in December

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9 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

I am starting to worry this huge (historic) PNA spike maybe just too early as there are some signs it rolls over in mid-december which will flood the CONUS with warmth...yet again.

Would you rather there be a trough out west?  Sure it could change by why not just get exited about the fact there’s actually a +PNA showing up?

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