Weather Threats on the Horizon: Spring 2020 Edition - Page 51 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
Oliviajames3

Weather Threats on the Horizon: Spring 2020 Edition

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16 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Wow! From earlier today. 

 

 

That is insane! I can't remember the last time I heard of a 90+ mph gust in NJ from a thunderstorm. 

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Sick. 

 

 

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Imagine getting hit three times by severe storms in a 24-36 hour period. Wow.

 

Still 250k+ without power in PA as well.

 

However for us north of NNJ the threat is much lower today than it was yesterday. 

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4 hours ago, Thundersnow3765 said:

spccoday1.categorical.latest.png?v=875

There's less of a chance in the NYC metro today than there was yesterday. Shift this all 50 miles south and it makes more sense.

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WRF-ARW did quite well with the derecho yesterday while the NAM and HRRR whiffed. Today the ARW has a MCS, while the NAM and HRRR are much more tame. Wonder which will play out today

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_14.png

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2 minutes ago, Thundersnow3765 said:

WRF-ARW did quite well with the derecho yesterday while the NAM and HRRR whiffed. Today the ARW has a MCS, while the NAM and HRRR are much more tame. Wonder which will play out today

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_14.png

I kind of lean towards the lower end guidance, but there should still be some fireworks. I think there will be some severe reports & a few strong storms. But I'd lean toward high precip downbursts being the primary culprit vs straight line winds & large hail. It'll be harder to achieve again up this way with the stalled frontal boundary basically overhead, but ya never know. 

 

 

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From yesterday's derecho... This is nuts.

 

 

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mcd0811.gif

 Mesoscale Discussion 0811
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern OH...Western PA...Northern WV
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 041645Z - 041815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing severe thunderstorm threat is forecast across
   central/eastern OH, northern WV Panhandle, and western PA.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage across central OH has recently
   increased, supported by air mass destabilization and ascent from the
   approaches convectively enhanced vorticity maximum. Downstream air
   mass across central and eastern OH and western PA is expected to
   continue destabilizing under strong diurnal heating. Additionally,
   the westerly flow aloft increases with eastern extent into PA,
   suggesting the potential for a stronger, more organized convective
   line into PA. More cellular activity could produce some isolated
   large hail but the primary severe weather threat is expected to be
   damaging wind gusts. Given the current radar trends and favorable
   downstream air mass, a watch will likely be needed soon.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/04/2020
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Well, at least there will be numerous chances over the next few days with this stalled front in play. All you can ask for really.

 

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_neus_44.png

nam3km_ir_neus_56.png

 

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86 today, now 82

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Southern NJ about to get mauled again by a bow. Im going to go outside, drink a beer and curse at the sky. 😂

ihatesnj.png

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^^ it's true. 

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That line is bowing out, nasty. 

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Line holding together and even strengthening some on the north side. Might clip portions of the immediate metro.

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