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Current Observations: Spring/Summer 2020


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Just had a heavy snow shower. I had to take the kids out to enjoy it, haha.   

1947...1923...1891

I can never move.    

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Half decent severe threat NJ/PA vicinity on Monday.  A weak vort max providing lift at peak heating along and southwest of the backdoor front.  Shear is weak, but good directional shear and just enough speed shear for some loose storm organization.  Moderate to strong instability, someone cool and dry aloft contributing to DCAPE, and fairly low wet bulb 0’s for July.  Environment seems conducive to microbursts, with any more persistent updrafts producing isolated large hail.  As PWATs increase late afternoon into the evening and the LLJ ramps up some, could see some training/back building convection into the evening with a localized flooding risk.  Overall weak shear and forcing will keep the threat isolated/marginal risk, but a corridor near and just south of the front over PA and NJ likely will have enough coverage to justify a slight risk for damaging winds.  Elsewhere, terrain and sea breezes will contribute to at least isolated severe weather. 

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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

Half decent severe threat NJ/PA vicinity on Monday.  A weak vort max providing lift at peak heating along and southwest of the backdoor front.  Shear is weak, but good directional shear and just enough speed shear for some loose storm organization.  Moderate to strong instability, someone cool and dry aloft contributing to DCAPE, and fairly low wet bulb 0’s for July.  Environment seems conducive to microbursts, with any more persistent updrafts producing isolated large hail.  As PWATs increase late afternoon into the evening and the LLJ ramps up some, could see some training/back building convection into the evening with a localized flooding risk.  Overall weak shear and forcing will keep the threat isolated/marginal risk, but a corridor near and just south of the front over PA and NJ likely will have enough coverage to justify a slight risk for damaging winds.  Elsewhere, terrain and sea breezes will contribute to at least isolated severe weather. 

Nice summation there mate. 

 

This was the 18z yesterday, but the 0z was largely similar. HRDPS likes a bowing segment across SEPA into C & SNJ. HREF placed the area of strongest updrafts in the same vicinity. Some of the other CAMS maintain a more scattered/isolated look with some variations in storm motion. 

 

Plenty of instability, even the mid level lapse rates aren't bad for this area of the country - But the weak shear is the one thing of note... Even still, forecast soundings show some veering with the arrival of the disturbance. Where the frontal boundary is draped will be the maker or breaker for points N of Trenton in terms of reaching severe criteria. Some disagreement among guidance today in that regard. So will be glued to this early on. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-truecolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

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34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

GFS is going to be wrong. 86 at the park at 10am

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