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COVID-19 Pandemic: ~27M Cases, ~900k Dead


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And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

Man this is short sighted. I have taught high school history for 14 years. This March-June was the hardest I ever worked. My wife was floated to a Covid floor and to overnights for 2 weeks...which tur

A reminder that I saw on Twitter this morning:       “The coronavirus doesn’t care if you’re tired of the coronavirus.”

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It's been awhile since I made a post on the IHME/U of Washington model, since the recent versions hadn't changes a whole lot.  However, with this version, they've extended the model through 10/1, showing the start of a second peak, with 145K deaths by August 1st (similar to what it was in mid-May, but an increase over what it was a week or two ago, as per below) and almost 170K deaths by Oct 1st - and implying a lot more after that, based on the significant increase in deaths in September, via the model.  NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, meaning the significant increases for the US are coming from other states, which is not a surprise.  

  • From IHME: "Based on the latest available data, cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach 145,728 (estimate range of 136,633 to 166,185) in the US by August. These cumulative estimates are higher than those found in the June 5 release (140,496 deaths, with an estimate range of 134,395 to 146,999) and the May 29 release (135,109 deaths, with an estimate range of 123,344 to 157,715)"
  • NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, with NY projected to reach 32K deaths by 10/1 and NJ expected to reach 13K deaths by 10/1 meaning the significant increases for the US would be coming from other states, which is not a surprise.
  • A word about Brazil and Mexico.  The model shows an huge increase in deaths in Brazil, bringing it from the current ~37K deaths to over 165K deaths by August 1st.  Similarly, Mexico is projected to go from 13K current deaths to 52K deaths by August 1st.  

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

 

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Here is today's update from the state as five regions prepare to enter Phase 3 tomorrow:

 

image.png.54b82bdde63b0b05a949dfce1aa2b307.png

 

Overall testing rates: 14% NYS, 17% NYC, 11.5% xNYC.

 

Today, Cuomo announced that local areas may begin reopening pools and playgrounds. Unfortunately, BDB continues to be stubborn and refuses to come up with a plan to safely reopen such areas, instead continuing to opt for "it's not safe". The city continues to be held back in key aspects of reopening and getting people places to go for the summer.

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2 hours ago, WxInTheBronx said:

I think you got this at the end of the last thread @ru848789, but reposting over:

 

 

 

No worries - worth sharing more than once!  Just posted this elsewhere...

 

Regeneron announced they've started clinical trials for their antibody cocktail. They're convinced their mixture of 2 antibodies will be better than the single antibody products others have. They're also the only ones who have shown this antibody cocktail approach to be effective in the real world with Ebola 2 years ago. They've been my pick all along to be the leader for this technology - has the potential to be a cure for most, as well as a preventative for most. If safe/effective, approvals could come by the end of summer.

Scaling up to meet demands for treatment is doable, as the numbers are small, while scaling up to meet demands for prevention, will take many months; this could be a stopgap until vaccines are ready - most expect antibodies would only confer immunity for "months" so might be most appropriate for front line workers and the most vulnerable among us.  SEcond link is from a few months ago, but does a great job explaining the science involved.  

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/regeneron-starts-testing-covid-19-antibody-cocktail-humans

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-york-biotech-company-working-make-antibody-treatment-coronavirus-n1154566?fbclid=IwAR1FFGWD3eRNdUY7g7SYSHpXy-ZWFdBVHPoJ9KxLCyRX-njshM36vUCzO3Y

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Another excellent summary article by Derek Lowe in today's In The Pipeline, this time on the status of the major vaccine efforts worldwide.  Although the non-scientific part he ends with is just as interesting as the all the science in the main part of the article.  It ain't going to be boring to watch and someday I'm sure we'll see books written about this effort...and a movie with Dave Hanks in there somewhere, lol...
 
 
Finally, there are political considerations. Aren’t there always. The various companies involved all have an incentive to be the first to announce an effective vaccine, of course – that will be a huge publicity event. On top of that, there is surely a desire on the part of the current administration to be able to announce this before the election in November – and let me be clear, this would be true no matter who was in office, or from which party. I will say, though, that the President’s willingness to promote hydroxychloroquine so far during the pandemic does not bode well for his restraint when it comes to potential treatments. The election season will just make that more fraught. And internationally, one can already see some elbow-throwing between the US and China (and potentially between the US and Europe?) on the origin of the first effective vaccine as well. Russia is part of this as well. National pride is at stake, which also can lead to some otherwise-irrational behavior.
 
The next few months, then, are not going to be dull. Politics aside, the organization and execution of all these trials will be a huge and complex effort, as mentioned, and when the numbers start coming out of them we’re going to surely be taken by surprise. That’s what clinical trials do; this won’t be different. I’m expecting sudden reversals, and sudden bursts of hope, despair, and confusion. None of us have ever seen anything like what’s coming, and I hope we never have another opportunity to see anything like it again!
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On top of the news yesterday about the importance of face masks in preventing COVID spread in that salon in Missouri, comes a really well done research article (peer-reviewed and in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) saying essentially the same thing.  Rather than summarizing it, here's the abstract, so people can read for themselves.  The bottom line is if one can't maintain social distancing in public (indoors or outdoors), which is very difficult in some work, travel and entertainment situations, wear a mask. Period.  
 
Abstract
Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
 
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On 6/11/2020 at 12:53 PM, WxInTheBronx said:

Here is today's update from the state as five regions prepare to enter Phase 3 tomorrow:

 

image.png.54b82bdde63b0b05a949dfce1aa2b307.png

 

Overall testing rates: 14% NYS, 17% NYC, 11.5% xNYC.

 

Today, Cuomo announced that local areas may begin reopening pools and playgrounds. Unfortunately, BDB continues to be stubborn and refuses to come up with a plan to safely reopen such areas, instead continuing to opt for "it's not safe". The city continues to be held back in key aspects of reopening and getting people places to go for the summer.

With a few days of an open business actually strung together now, I present today's update:

 

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Overall rates stand now at 13.6% NYS, 16.7% NYC, and 11.2% xNYC.

 

A battle might be brewing here between NYC and NYS. The state, as you see, reported 321 patients in all NYC ICUs for Covid. The NYCDOH is tracking ICU patients for all causes but only in the public (H+H) hospital system, with a report today of 339, tracking against a threshold of 375. This could set up a conflict as Phase 2 approaches as early as 10 days from now. While ultimately, the state will have more authority in this movement, you can see where a conflict would lay over ICU space, one of the metrics being tracked by both the BDB and AC administrations. NYC also has the wild card of much larger and more sustained protests over the last two weeks, which thankfully have so far not reflected in the Covid numbers, with testing holding between 1% and 2% positive (3% if you use NYCDOH reporting). With BDB not offering much for Phase 2 as of yet, but with AC seemingly intent on moving regions forward every two weeks barring disasters in the numbers, keep an eye out.

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Houston ICUs at 89% of capacity with cases exploding every day. NC and FL are out of control as well.

 

 

I am really glad that NY and NJ are both going heavy on contact tracing. It’s just going to take one person coming from a hotspot to light the fuse in NYC again. 
 

 

 

Now that everything is open or soon to be, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “wave 2” in the tri-state is really just going to be a continuation of wave one, and by late June we are approaching March numbers again.

 

Stay safe.

 

 

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Wonder if this has to do with the protest as well spiking the numbers? Also isnt it  true that now that surgeries are happening people are getting tested that wouldn’t of before. Since anyone who comes into the hospitals have to get tested ? Also my fiancé and I did postpone our wedding from this August to next May. Also will ve moving our honeymoon to Greece to next July instead of August. Seemed like the best and safest choice. Hope all is well to all. 

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3 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

Wonder if this has to do with the protest as well spiking the numbers? Also isnt it  true that now that surgeries are happening people are getting tested that wouldn’t of before. Since anyone who comes into the hospitals have to get tested ? Also my fiancé and I did postpone our wedding from this August to next May. Also will ve moving our honeymoon to Greece to next July instead of August. Seemed like the best and safest choice. Hope all is well to all. 

The Southern states were very aggressive in their reopening and are now seeing surges. These states kind of half-arsed their original stay-at-home plans too.

 

So far, the tri-state hasn't seem to have suffered negative feedback from the protests; NY as of today has the lowest RT in the nation at 0.77 and NJ is right behind. But things can change in a hurry if one thing is mismanaged.

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1 hour ago, Nchaboy said:

Wonder if this has to do with the protest as well spiking the numbers? Also isnt it  true that now that surgeries are happening people are getting tested that wouldn’t of before. Since anyone who comes into the hospitals have to get tested ? Also my fiancé and I did postpone our wedding from this August to next May. Also will ve moving our honeymoon to Greece to next July instead of August. Seemed like the best and safest choice. Hope all is well to all. 

Doubtful, as probably 50-70% of protesters were wearing masks in the big cities and even more in the small cities/towns, so maybe some small peaks, but not the kind of peaks that look like might be coming in many states in the rest of the US that didn't get hit that hard in wave 1 - many of those states opened back up way too early and have not been practicing good masking and social distancing.  We're just into the 2nd quarter of a long game with less than 5% of the US infected and herd immunity being 55-80% depending on the actual R0 which we really don't know yet.  

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6 hours ago, ru848789 said:
Well, this isn't great news with regard to the virus, as a new preprint paper (2nd link) just came out from the Scripps Institute showing that the strain of the virus which has been predominant in Europe and the NE US has a mutation that appears to make the virus more stable and significantly more transmissible, at least in cell culture tests (using "psuedo-viruses" built to mimic the coronavirus, but not dangerous versions).  The authors feel that this is why this strain has become the predominant strain in the world.  The difference in the two strains is just one amino acid substitution.  
 
 
 
Not all experts agree on the increased transmission effect, though, as per the Times article below, as some feel the predominance of this strain is due to the "founder effect" which simply states that whatever version seeded the infections early on in key, densely populated locations like northern Italy and NYC naturally became the predominant strain as it spread rapidly.  More work needs to be done here, clearly, to confirm the laboratory findings truly result in greater person to person transmission. Clearly, however, nobody is seriously talking about the virus weakening (even though that is possible).  
 
The one piece of good news from the study was that the original strain (from Wuhan, which is what infected most on the US West Coast) and this strain both respond well to neutralizing antibodies obtained from survivors' plasma, indicating that convalescent plasma, engineered antibodies and vaccines would very likely work for both strains.  There is also no indication that either strain exhibits different patient impacts. 
 
This is all potentially the result of a mutation in just a single amino acid residue at position #614 (substituting a glycine for an aspartic acid) on the viral spike protein on the S1 domain, which mediates receptor binding and fusion of the viral and cellular membrane at the interface of the spike protein and the ACE-2 receptor sites on human lung/endothelial cells, allowing the virus to gain entry into these cells and take over the genetic machinery of such cells, turning out boatloads of new viruses to continue the infection.  See the pic below.  
 
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Also question why was there an article our from the WHO Saying now it seems very rare for a symptomatic transmisión now. Wasn’t it supposed to be even people who don’t show symptoms can spread this virus easy. There is so much info out there it’s hard to believe any of it. Makes my head hurt lol.  

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4 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

Also question why was there an article our from the WHO Saying now it seems very rare for a symptomatic transmisión now. Wasn’t it supposed to be even people who don’t show symptoms can spread this virus easy. There is so much info out there it’s hard to believe any of it. Makes my head hurt lol.  

There seems to be a rush to say something that ends up causing confusion instead of just saying and admitting, “we don’t know & are working on finding and having an answer.”  So one month it’s X and then a month or two later don’t follow X, it causes confusion which the population doesn’t need during a pandemic. 

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14 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

There seems to be a rush to say something that ends up causing confusion instead of just saying and admitting, “we don’t know & are working on finding and having an answer.”  So one month it’s X and then a month or two later don’t follow X, it causes confusion which the population doesn’t need during a pandemic. 


good point. Sort of like the mask debacle

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On 6/11/2020 at 12:53 PM, WxInTheBronx said:

Here is today's update from the state as five regions prepare to enter Phase 3 tomorrow:

 

image.png.54b82bdde63b0b05a949dfce1aa2b307.png

 

Overall testing rates: 14% NYS, 17% NYC, 11.5% xNYC.

 

Today, Cuomo announced that local areas may begin reopening pools and playgrounds. Unfortunately, BDB continues to be stubborn and refuses to come up with a plan to safely reopen such areas, instead continuing to opt for "it's not safe". The city continues to be held back in key aspects of reopening and getting people places to go for the summer.

 

Hopefully BDB opens the pools in the city.  Where are all the kids going to go in the summer ? I now work with kids .

22 hours ago, fireguy286 said:

That is not good news. 

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People are going to be pissed if states close again. 

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  • 33andrain changed the title to COVID-19 Pandemic: 23M+ Cases, 800k+ Dead
  • 33andrain changed the title to COVID-19 Pandemic: ~27M Cases, ~900k Dead

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