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COVID-19 Pandemic: ~56M Cases, ~1.3M Dead


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1 hour ago, NJwxguy78 said:

Had moderna dose 2 early this morning. Exciting times.

 

So far, can say I felt way worse 10 hours after dose 1 than dose 2. 
 

 

I get MRNA round two Sunday. Already warned my boss I might call out Monday.

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And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

God it’s been a crazy 9 months but today was a bittersweet day where it becomes that much more clear how close to the end we are 

A reminder that I saw on Twitter this morning:       “The coronavirus doesn’t care if you’re tired of the coronavirus.”

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38 minutes ago, WxInTheHeights said:

I get MRNA round two Sunday. Already warned my boss I might call out Monday.


glad to hear you will soon join the ranks of the microchipped :)  

 

pretty amazing that we all got here!

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23 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


glad to hear you will soon join the ranks of the microchipped :)  

 

pretty amazing that we all got here!

Have your computer skills increased since getting your 2nd dose.  I have heard people have acquired skills they never thought they'd have w/ regard to computers!  lol

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6 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Have your computer skills increased since getting your 2nd dose.  I have heard people have acquired skills they never thought they'd have w/ regard to computers!  lol


I’m hoping for some extra memory 😆 

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Was a bit tired after my first dose of the Pzifer vaccine. Expecting to feel like crap after the second dose 

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7 minutes ago, Psv said:

Was a bit tired after my first dose of the Pzifer vaccine. Expecting to feel like crap after the second dose 

I got my first dose 4 hours ago. Don't feel anything yet

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I got my first dose 4 hours ago. Don't feel anything yet


your arm will be really sore for a day. That’s the worst of it 

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5 hours ago, WxInTheHeights said:

I get MRNA round two Sunday. Already warned my boss I might call out Monday.

Nice!! Getting my second dose Monday. Ecstatic. 

 

Look At Us Paul Rudd GIF by First We Feast: Hot Ones

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On 3/2/2021 at 8:07 PM, Snowman11 said:

Like I said in my previous  post , do you think at least 70 percent of the country will get the vaccine ? I know I will not and my family.

There's no kind way to put this.  People who don't get the COVID vaccines, outside of children, are simply idiots with zero understanding of science and the benefit/risk of vaccines.    

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10 hours ago, Psv said:

Remember when everyone doubted if there would be a second wave?

Not me, I predicted it and the third wave.  I don't think there will be a fourth though, as I think we're going to just barely beat the new variants increasing cases by vaccinating fast enough to get closer to herd immunity (it's not a "switch" - transmissions will slow down proportionally to how many people are vaccinated + infected/recovered/immune).  

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12 hours ago, Manny said:

 

P.1 is no joke. Please get vaccinated if you qualify. 

Keep in mind, though, that all of the variants appear to be handled by the mRNA and J&J vaccines, at least with regard to stopping hospitalizations and deaths - there will be more vaccinated people getting mild/moderate COVID cases from the variants, though.  The big picture issue, though, is that it's absolutely true that the faster we get everyone vaccinated, the lower the case numbers get and the less likely a variant emerges which would evade the vaccines. That's simple genetic evolutionary probability at work.  as Fauci says, there can't be mutation if there isn't transmission.  I liken it to Russian roulette, where the level of transmission is comparable to the number of bullets in the chamber.  The lower the transmission rate, the less bullets in the chamber and the less likely a variant will emerge that evades the vaccines.  That's also why we can't only worry about the US.  

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2269579-how-much-of-a-threat-is-the-brazil-variant-of-coronavirus-to-the-uk/

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On 9/3/2020 at 4:28 AM, ru848789 said:

 

Skipped doing my comparison of national data and FL/TX/AZ/CA wave 2 to NJ wave 1 last week (other priorities), but figured I'd do one more and this is probably it for comparing these states, as the major outbreaks are mostly over in these states with regard to cases and hospitalizations, which have dropped off substantially, although, as has been the case in most states, the decline in deaths is going more slowly. In case anyone people don't remember 2 months ago, the reason for picking these states was that they're the three most populous, plus a 4th state that had one of the earliest 2nd waves and has a similar population to NJ, which was my comparator, since it has had the highest death rate, overall and, of course, many of us live here. Below is the link to one of my early posts on these states, in late June, which had a number of predictions which mostly came true.
 
 
In the very big picture, this "wave 2" has featured case peaks that were twice what they were in "wave 1" (although "wave 1" likely was well undercounted, due to lack of testing for much of it and wave 2 featured a much younger/milder infected population) and a hospitalization peak which was about the same as in wave 1 (likely more accurate than cases), but has had a death peak about half what it was in wave 1, which given similar hospitalization numbers, very likely means improved medical procedures and pharmaceutical treatments have had a significant effect, halving deaths of seriously ill/hospitalized patients. Still using 7-day moving averages (7DMA) on a per capita (per 1MM) basis for most of the discussions of cases, hospitalizations and deaths (especially for comparing states), from the Covidtracking site.
 
National Stats: After a 2-week peak at 65-68K/day from mid-July until the end of July (~2X the peak from wave 1, although wave 1 was likely well undercounted, due to lack of testing), cases have been steadily declining and the 7-day avg is now down around 40-45K/day, which is good news. Hospitalizations peaked at about ~60K in late July, which is very close to the peak in the first wave, but if the dynamics were the same as the first wave, this 2nd peak would have also been ~2X what they were in the first wave, not roughly the same, meaning the hospitalization rate is roughly half the rate it was for the first wave (relative to cases). As per previous posts, hospitalizations are likely ~1/2 of what they were in wave 1 due to the combination of younger patient profile and more testing (per capita) leading to more mild/asymptomatic cases (as has been discussed a lot recently). Deaths are up over 2X from their early July low and they clearly peaked at a rate of about 1000-1150 per day through about last week, which was about half of the April peak (2100-2250/day), but have now started to slowly decline and are down in the 900-950/day range (7DMA); given similar hospitalization rates, the most obvious reason for 1/2 the death rate is improved medical procedures/pharmaceutical treatments. So, relatively speaking, this is better news, although our current peak death rates are still worse than all but a handful of countries with over 50MM in population (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia), per capita.
 
Cases in AZ/FL/TX/CA: For the 4 states I've been looking at, closely (Florida, Texas, California, as all three spiked and are the 3 largest states, plus Arizona, as it peaked earlier and has a similar population as NJ, the comparator) cases are continuing to decline fairly rapidly in AZ (especially), FL, and TX and they're declining quickly again in CA after a 2nd spike. As per recent posts, the AZ case peak was about 30% more, per capita (per 1MM people) than the NJ peak (which was about 3500/day or 400/1MM), while the FL peak was ~50% more, the TX peak was ~10% less and the CA peak was ~40% less.
 
Hospitalizations in AZ/FL/TX/CA: AZ's hospitalizations peaked (and continue declining) at ~55% of NJ's (which were 8000 total or 900 per 1MM), while FL peaked at about 50% of NJ's per capita rate (and is declining), TX peaked at ~45% of NJ's rate and is now declining, and CA peaked at 25% of NJ's peak and is also declining. As per previous reports, these reductions vs. NJ are likely due to the much younger age of those infected in this wave, combined with far more aggressive testing than during our peak (we had positivity rates of 40-50% due to lack of tests), which is discovering more mild/asymptomatic cases.
 
Deaths in AZ/FL/TX/CA: My guesstimate has been that deaths in AZ/FL/TX would likely be about 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NJ (about 30/1MM), partly due to the younger age and milder cases of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved treatments and procedures. AZ peaked at ~40% of NJ's peak and despite having major fluctuations, they're death rates have been steadily declining for the past few weeks and are now down around half of their peak. FL peaked at about 30% of NJ's peak a few weeks ago and after some fluctuations has now declined to about 1/3 below their peak. TX peaked at about 1/3 of NJ's peak and after some fluctuations is now steadily declining and is at about 1/3 below their peak. CA's case/hospitalization rates have been well below the other 3 states and their death rate peaked at about 12% of NJ's peak (and is continuing to decline), as I've been predicting based on lower case rates/hospitalization rates per capita vs. the other 3 states. In hindsight, per capita deaths in FL/TX/AX were likely on the low side of my guesstimates vs. NJ's mostly because hospitalization rates were lower than I thought they'd be (45-55% of NJ's), whereas I had accounted for improved medical procedures/treatments for people once they were hospitalized, reducing death rates significantly vs. the first wave. Also, clearly California did the best out of these states with regard to cases, hospitalizations and deaths per capita in wave 2, which is not a surprise as CA had the strongest set of interventions in place (masking/distancing and not reopening as aggressively in the first place).
 
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Summary: Wanted to elaborate on the issue of comparing death rates per capita in NJ/NY vs. other states, showing how we would've had far lower rates if we weren't hit so early and so hard. This is because I see so many people who say that NJ/NY (and other NE US states like MA/RI/CT) have "done horribly" during the pandemic because our deaths, per capita, are the 1st and 2nd highest in the US (at around 2400-2600 deaths/1MM). NJ/NY would both have death rates ranging from near the middle of the pack in the US to well below the middle of the pack for death rates per capita in the US, depending on which of 2 scenarios played out with regard to being the first ones hit and hit so hard and having such high death rates early on (twice what was seen in later waves), which is easy to see when comparing against a more "typical" state, like Texas or Florida or California, which were barely hit in the spring, but hit hard in the summer and harder in the winter. NY/NJ had 50-60% of our deaths in the spring, while most states typically had only ~10% of their deaths in the spring.

Details: As per numerous previous posts of mine (and the one quoted above), the deaths per hospitalization in the spring wave in NJ/NY were double what was seen during the summer in the 2nd wave all over the US and in the winter wave all over the US, including NJ/NY. This halving of death rates, post-spring was largely due to having more efficaceous treatments and having significantly improved medical procedures (especially on dealing with anoxic/ventilated patients), which were developed by the end of the spring wave (we were the guinea pigs). All of the deaths/death rate/population data, below are from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

And keep in mind that we're comparing crappy to really crappy performance in the US relative to a host of East Asian and African countries that have per capita death rates that are 1/20th to 1/100th of the US's (and most of Europe/South America too), mostly due to far better testing-tracing-isolating, augmented by better masking/distancing. I just wanted to show that NJ and NY are nowhere near the crappiest if one takes into account how early and hard we were hit (including the much higher deaths/hosp we absorbed in the spring).

𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗛𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬:

If one halves the deaths/hosp for the spring wave, then NJ/NY both drop to about 1640-1780 deaths/1MM, which would put both states in the 15-25th range in the US, given that both NJ/NY had 50-60% of their deaths in the spring, when death rates per hospitalization were much greater, while the vast majority of states had ~10% (or less) of their deaths in the spring. Specifically, NJ had about 15,040 deaths in the spring and 8310 since spring, so that would've been about 15,830 (15,040/2 + 8310) deaths/8.88MM or 1780 deaths/1MM, while NY had about 32,000 deaths in the spring and 16,000 since the spring, so that would've been about 32,000 deaths (32K/2 + 16K)/19.45MM or 1645 deaths/1MM.

𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟮: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬

In addition to being hit first, we had almost no interventions in place when the virus was silently multiplying exponentially in the densest population areas in the country (with very high commuting densities). Again, as I posted many times back in the spring, if we had had any testing in place we could have put interventions like distancing/masking in place well before mid/late March, when testing started getting going, and likely avoided a large chunk of those spring cases/deaths on top of halving the death rates as discussed above. We also would've likely started the stay-at-home orders 1-2 weeks earlier, which several studies have said would've saved 50-80% of the lives lost in wave 1. Even if it was just a 50% reduction in cases/deaths, that added on top of halving the deaths per hospitalization in the spring, would've dropped NJ/NY even further down in death rates, overall.

If we had had 50% less cases/deaths in the spring due to better testing and earlier interventions and had the lower death rates in the spring that other states have seen since summer (meaning roughly 1/4 the deaths we had in the spring), NJ would have had 12,070 total deaths (3760 in spring vs. 15,040 actually in the spring, plus 8310 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 23.2K NJ deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2640 to 1360/1MM, which would place NJ at about 30th in the US. And NY would have had 24,000 total deaths (8000 in spring vs. 32,000 actually in the spring, plus 16,000 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 48K NY deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2480 to 1240/1MM, which would place NY at 34th in the US. Both states would have lower death rates per capita than Texas (1540/1MM) and Florida (1470 deaths/1MM), if we had not been hit first and so hard.

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝟭𝗠𝗠 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀

And if we wanted to see how states have done since the first wave, which nobody was really prepared for, but which NJ/NY were hit far harder in, as detailed above, things really get interesting. Just looking at deaths per 1MM people in selected states (mostly the ones I've discussed before, as per the post linked above), since the end of May, it shows that NJ/NY have better records than most other states (would be in the 35-40th range out of 50 states). People in this area have responded pretty well and only had one significant peak since spring, which was half the peak (in hospitalizations) vs. the spring and had about 1/4 the death rate vs. spring, due to the improved treatments/procedures as discussed previously. I'm only showing the graphs (from the link below) for NJ/NY/FL/TX, just to show the shapes of the trajectories of cases/hosp/deaths.

https://covidtracking.com/data

Arizona: 15,183 deaths/7.28MM = 2085 deaths/1MM
South Dakota: 1832 deaths/0.88MM = 2081 deaths/1MM
Texas: 42,561 deaths/28.99MM = 1468 deaths/1MM
Florida: 28,826 deaths/21.48MM = 1340 deaths/1MM
Calilfornia: 48,801 deaths/39.51MM = 1235 deaths/1MM
New Jersey: 10,049 deaths/8.88MM = 1131 deaths/1MM
New York: 17.675 deaths/19.45MM = 908 deaths/1MM

 

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2 hours ago, Manny said:

Nice!! Getting my second dose Monday. Ecstatic. 

 

Look At Us Paul Rudd GIF by First We Feast: Hot Ones

Getting Pfizer dose 2 on Saturday, along with my wife, as we're 1B, and our son already has both - he should've been 1B (immune issues), but when he signed up with NJ, they told him he was 1C, but he was probably also the first person in NJ to sign up, lol, as he just happened to see the site go live and signed up, so we think they just gave appt's to anyone who signed up that first day.  And my dad just got his 2nd dose in FL, but my sister is still waiting in FL, as she's 61 and they're only doing those over 65 still.  

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Well, a year ago today, 3/3, was one of the most surreal days in my life, as Rutgers very likely clinched an NCAA tourney berth in hoops with that huge win over MD at home, which was euphoric, and after I got home, I immediately washed my clothes, took a shower and hoped I hadn't done something dumb by going to that game and getting infected. That day was the start of our quarantine, as our son had moved home the day before, over concerns that his roommates and friends might not take the coming pandemic seriously enough, while he knew we would (he and my wife are immunocompromised).  
 
That was the last day any of us went anywhere indoors in public without a mask on and we generally only went to places to shop very late at night to avoid other humans and we had a fairly elaborate decontamination system for groceries, takeout, mail/packages etc. (which we relaxed significantly a few months later after it became clearer that surface transmission was rare). And outside of doing some outdoors, socially distant visits with friends, it was the last time we hung out with other humans. As I've acknowledged before, I thought this wouldn't necessarily be much worse than a flu through early Feb, but by mid/late Feb, I was posting about it becoming a pandemic and I made the post linked below on 3/1/20 (on a Rutgers sports board, where I started posting on COVID before here).
 
And unfortunately, just about the worst case scenario has played out in NJ, the US, and in much of Europe and South America, with this pandemic killing millions (2.5MM so far and over 500K in the US) and infecting over 110MM as per PCR virus testing and likely having infected over half a billion people in actuality. Only countries that stopped/greatly slowed transmissions, usually by some combo of testing. tracing, and isolating to detect minor outbreaks and prevent them from growing into major outbreaks, augmented by distancing (which occasionally meant lockdowns for some)/masking to greatly reduce transmissions in general (this was all in our pandemic playbook, which the Trump Administration generally ignored). Many of these countries only have 1/20th to 1/100th the deaths per capita that the US and many European/South American countries have.
 
It's easy to see in the table below (which is 2 weeks old, but still relevant) that deaths per 1MM and cases per 1MM generally trend together, i.e., those countries with low case rates, per capita, are the ones with low death rates, per capita (the table is sorted from high to low deaths per capita). Just about every country with over 1000 deaths/1MM has over 35,000 cases/1MM, while almost every country with under 40 deaths/1MM has under 2000 cases/1MM (except Singapore, who has, by far, the highest testing rate per case, so have found far more asymptomatics than anyone). And the way to keep cases and deaths low is to keep cases low from the beginning, by doing testing (with fast results), so that the testing can actually be used to isolate cases and prevent new ones.
 
The ~520K dead in the US is certainly in the range of what I said was possible a year ago, just based on simple death rate comparison vs. the flu, if we did nothing, i.e., 120K to 1.2MM dead - and we didn't do much more than nothing relative to what the successful countries did. Yes, we've done a lot of tests, but with little intelligence behind them (so isolation and tracing can stop the spread) and starting way too late, letting epidemics break out. And yes, some think we made great sacrifices, but I doubt we've ever had more than 60-70% masking, especially in private homes with small family/friends gatherings, where most transmissions likely occur (as well as the big gatherings too) and 95-100% masking in indoor public spaces (which we only ever had in some states anyway), but 60-70% masking in private is simply not enough to do more than slow the spread.
 
So, a year later we're here and the one thing we've done extraordinarily well is developing vaccines for this virus, thanks to some of the best scientists in the world, collaborating worldwide for decades on vaccine research, and excellent support from Operation Warp Speed. I know many thought this would take 18-24 months given the fastest vaccine to market had been over about 4 years, but I truly thought we'd have a vaccine ready for the public by the end of the year, even back in April and fortunately that ended up being correct. And after a rough start to distribution under the last administration, vaccination rates are climbing rapidly and we have a chance to slow this pandemic significantly and to even hopefully stamp it out - if we can get to herd immunity (70-80% probably) from vaccinations, combined with infections (with ~30% infected/mostly immune), ASAP, especially before the more transmissible variants can cause case/death increases again.
 
We'll have enough doses by the end of March to vaccinate 40% of (110MM of 270MM) all adults and as per President Biden's announcement the other day, we should have enough vaccines for every adult by the end of May, so we ought to be able to vaccinate at least 60-70% of adults by then, which will be very close to herd immunity. Hopefully, we'll be back to "normal" by mid/late summer if we can get enough people vaccinated and if we dont see new variants emerge which can evade our vaccines (a real threat, especially with the rest of the world not being close to herd immunity by then, which increases the likelihood of such a variant - which we can make boosters for quickly, but distribution still takes months). Hopefully...
 
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4 hours ago, ru848789 said:

There's no kind way to put this.  People who don't get the COVID vaccines, outside of children, are simply idiots with zero understanding of science and the benefit/risk of vaccines.    

I was reading some comments on articles about the vaccines-the conspiracy theories are unreal-Bill Gates is poisoning everyone, it's a hoax so the pharma companies will get rich, it will make you infertile.   Unreal.

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44 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

There are alot of people who do not want the vaccine

 

That doesn't make them an idiot

 

 How does that make them an idiot ?

 

This isn't an opinion. There's zero valid reasons for not getting the vaccine, ESPECIALLY after 100 million plus doses have been doled out since December and if something goes wrong it usually appears in the first few weeks. 

 

I also find it rich that people say they won't take the vaccine because they don't trust it but will then proceed to eat a bunch of artificial processed sh-t that causes all kinds of proven damage to your body over time. 

 

Bro when ag3 is getting the vaccine that's all you need to know about its safety lol 

 

And if you want things to go back to normal, you're going to have to pitch in as a member of society and get your vaccine. This won't work if people say no thanks. 

 

 

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