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COVID-19 Pandemic: ~56M Cases, ~1.3M Dead


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It's 11pm and still no update from NYS on the hospitalization data. Cuomo tweeted out that 1,104 patients were hospitalized statewide, which would be a drop of 18 from yesterday. But the regional data hasn't appeared.

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And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

God it’s been a crazy 9 months but today was a bittersweet day where it becomes that much more clear how close to the end we are 

To everyone who has viewed these posts, whether or not you've voiced your support, thank you. Thank you for following along over the course of one of the longest, most difficult periods that the world

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On 6/22/2020 at 8:01 PM, ru848789 said:

Summary (two-part post): This will be a two part post with part 1 focusing on overall death rate comparisons for COVID vs. flu, while part 2 is on a similar comparison for those aged 0-17 years. Beware of claims circulating that COVID is only 2-3X worse than the flu with regard to overall deaths and that the flu was 6-20X more deadly than COVID for people under 18. Both are wrong. The real math is overall, COVID will likely have a final total infection rate of 0.5-1.0%, overall, vs. 0.08% for the flu, plus COVID will eventually infect 5.5-8X the numbers infected by the flu every year, which is why 900K-2.6MM eventual US COVID deaths are possible (w/o interventions or a cure/vaccine). And with regard to children, once I found actual reported US death rates for those under 18 for both COVID and influenza (flu deaths are estimated for every age group, but actual deaths are reported for those under 18) it became pretty clear that the death rates are likely pretty similar, with flu maybe having 2X the death rate for that age group (not 6-20X) at worst, depending on assumptions.

 

Part 1 - Details on overall COVID vs. flu death rates: With regard to overall deaths, the graphic (first link below - don't even want to reproduce it here, for fear of it being misinterpreted) of COVID vs. influenza deaths by age group is very misleading and was constructed by FREOPP, a right wing think tank, from the wrong set of CDC data. The authors assume an average annual deaths from "influenza and pneumonia" of 60,000 per year, which is an estimate and is what the CDC reports, but it's irrelevant if we want to compare COVID to just influenza, since there are many sources of pneumonia in any given year, not just influenza.

https://freopp.org/estimating-the-r...vs-influenza-or-pneumonia-by-age-630aea3ae5a9


The estimate most people use for influenza deaths is ~30K/year, which is the average over 2010-11 to 2016-17 (the most recent 2 years are "preliminary estimates" and not included); see the CDC link. However, keep in mind that this is an estimate made from models (not actual reported deaths, like we have for COVID) and is likely much higher than the true influenza death rate, since it includes bacterial pneumonia and other sources of death lumped in with influenza, as per the link from Scientific American where the author said, "In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which is far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/


However, even if we use the somewhat inflated 30K estimate of average flu deaths per year that's still not an apples to apples comparison with COVID. Over those same 8 years, the CDC data show that, on average, there are an estimated (again from models) 22.3MM symptomatic flu cases per season, which is about 6.8% of the population; that 30K/22.3MM ratio is the symptomatic infection fatality rate (SIFR), which is 0.13%. However, to get a true comparison of apples to apples we need to know the infection fatality rate including asymptomatic cases of the flu, which the Scientific American paper estimates could be 50% and the CDC estimates is around 40% (link below). Let's be conservative and use 35%, which is the same number that the CDC is currently projecting for the % of asymptomatic COVID cases - that would give a 0.08% total infection fatality rate (TIFR) for flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm#:~:text=The commonly cited 5% to,didn't have any symptoms.

 

So, from a big picture perspective, comparing TIFRs for flu vs. COVID, the comparison, then, is 0.08% for flu vs. 1.1-1.2% for COVID, which is based on the New York and Spain deaths vs. seroprevalence data from antibody testing a reasonable subset of the population. Specifically, for NY, there were 30,700 dead as of 6/13, which is an infection fatality ratio of 1.1% (vs. 2.68MM infected, given 20MM in NY with 13.4% with antibodies, which includes asymptomatic infections), which is up a bit from the 1.0% it was back on 5/1. So the apples to apples TIFRs are 0.08% to 1.1%, meaning COVID is 13.7X deadlier than the flu, overall, so far.

Having said that, I've been saying all along and most experts seem to agree that the eventual COVID TIFR will be 0.5-1.0%, since it's possible more vulnerable people have been infected so far and since doctors are getting better at treating COVID (once there's a near cure or vaccine, the TIFR will change completely, though - for now, we're discussing pre-cure/vaccine IFRs for comparison). It's also why, absent interventions, cures or vaccines (I think we could have a cure by Sept and a vaccine by Dec, but can't count on it yet), we have to have more aggressive interventions if we want to decrease our death rates significantly, i.e., distancing first, with masks if distancing isn't possible, combined with aggressive testing, tracing and isolating (we're doing good on testing, but not on tracing/isolating).

 

One more thing: in an average year only about 34MM people are infected by the flu (including asymptomatics), which is slightly over 10% of the US: for us to reach "herd immunity" in the US for COVID we'd need to have 55-80% infected, depending on who's R0 transmission estimates one believes (and assuming no built in natural immunity, which could exist, but to what extent isn't known yet), which is more than 5X as many people as get infected with the flu in a typical year - so IFRs are deaths per infection, but if there are 5X as many infections, the deaths go up that much more over time, i.e., from 13.7X to 68.5X. It's why anyone saying COVID is no worse than the flu, overall, is simply nuts.

 

Part 2 - Details on COVID vs flu death rates for those 0-17: Well, I finally found the COVID CDC reported US age group deaths through 6/13 (103K total vs. 117K total on Worldometers on that date - it's known the CDC data lag, so they're going to be on the low side). And I finally found the CDC actual reported deaths for influenza for pediatric cases (ages 0-17), which have been reported for almost 20 years. It really shouldn't be this hard to find everything, but it is. So let's have a look, although the spoiler alert is it confirms what I said in part 1, that actual pediatric deaths for flu are likely only a little bit higher, not 6-20X higher.

The first link has the CDC data on COVID mortality by age and it shows 26 deaths from ages 0-14 and 125 deaths from 15-24, which would equate to ~12 deaths per 1 year increment if they were equal risk, but they're not, so let's say deaths for 15-17 are half those of 18-24 to be conservative. That would mean 18 more deaths for 15-17, making a total of 44 deaths from 0-17, by the CDC numbers and let's add 14% (6 of 44) to that, since the CDC count is 14% behind the real count, making a total of 50 deaths from 0-17. My guess is this number is fairly conservative, since extrapolating NY's 15 deaths in ages 0-19 to the US (333MM/20MM - relative populations) would give 250 deaths and even if we took 20% off that (since 0-19 is not 0-17 - a 10% difference, but doubling it since there should be more deaths for 18-19 vs. 0-17) it's still 200 deaths from 0-17 vs. the CDC number of 50. Or we could just say the COVID number is likely between about 50 and 200 deaths for 0-17 year olds.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku


The CDC estimated 8-year average flu deaths in the 0-17 age group of ~450 I calculated last night certainly sounds a lot worse than the actual COVID deaths, but as mentioned in part 1 flu deaths are estimated by a fairly complex model. However, for children, 0-17, the CDC actually has true death counts, since those had to be reported by every state to the CDC since 2004 and those actual reported flu deaths have ranged from 37 (2011-2012 season) to 185 deaths (2017-2018 season), as per the 2nd link below, with an average number of age 0-17 flu deaths being about 120 per season (for the same 8 years as in the post above: 2010-11 thru 2017-18).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/pedfludeath.html

Comparing that 120 actual CDC flu deaths for 0-17 to the range of 50-200 I just estimated from the COVID data (US vs. NY) means the differences are not very large. Even if we only took the US-CDC COVID number (~50), the ratio is 2.4X, which is nowhere near the 6-20X postulated in that FREEOPP graphic, but I think it's just as likely that there's no significant difference. This is in sharp contrast to the huge difference in the total infection fatality (TIFR) rate for COVID in the overall population vs. influenza, as I showed in part 1, if one assumes a TIFR of 0.5-1.0% for COVID (it's 1.1% for NY now) vs. 0.08% TIFR for the US for flu, giving a ratio of 6.25-12.5X for TIFRs for COVID compared to flu.

Going one step further, if the TIFR ratio is 6.2-12.5 and we have 30K estimated flu deaths per year, that's 186K-372K COVID deaths. However, as per part 1, only about 10% of the total US population gets infected by flu every year (34MM, including asymptomatics), whereas COVID would infect 55-80% of the US based on herd immunity or 5.5-8.0X more people than flu (and assuming no built in natural immunity, which could exist, but to what extent isn't known yet), so multiplying just by the low end of that range (5X), we could see 930K-1860K US deaths eventually.

 

I've been saying 900K-2600K in other posts using just the 0.5-1.0% COVID IFR times that full 5.5-8.0X multiplier, which gives 181MM-264MM infected), assuming no interventions, cure or vaccine and since we can't count on cures/vaccines (even though I think we could have a cure by Sept and a vaccine by Dec), we have to have more aggressive interventions if we want to decrease our death rates significantly, i.e., distancing first, with masks if distancing isn't possible, combined with aggressive testing, tracing and isolating (we're doing good on testing, but not on tracing/isolating).

 

Fixed.

 

To date the U.S  non resolved # is .51% 

 

 

TOTAL INFECTED  2,357,261   DEATHS 121,135  

 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

 

Eventually that number will roll towards .2% by next year as treatments improve. 

 

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

To date the U.S  CFR is .051% which I thought would end up being the CFR from the very beginning.

 

 

TOTAL INFECTED  2,357,261   DEATHS 121,135  

 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

 

 

The case fatality rate is 5.1% not 0.051%.  But I recall both of us saying for months that the eventual infection fatality rate would be in the 0.5-1.0% range, which is what most experts are now predicting, given IFRs near 1% in locations that have antibody/seroprevalence testing (like NY's/Spain's 1.1%), so we know how many are likely truly infected (although CDC is still on the low end at 0.25% IFR, which I struggle to see being right - I expect it to come down some, but not that much).  

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9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

To date the U.S  CFR is .051% which I thought would end up being the CFR from the very beginning.

 

 

TOTAL INFECTED  2,357,261   DEATHS 121,135  

 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

 

Eventually that number will roll towards .02% by next year as treatments improve. 

 


Do you mean 5.1%?

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4 hours ago, ru848789 said:

The case fatality rate is 5.1% not 0.051%.  But I recall both of us saying for months that the eventual infection fatality rate would be in the 0.5-1.0% range, which is what most experts are now predicting, given IFRs near 1% in locations that have antibody/seroprevalence testing (like NY's/Spain's 1.1%), so we know how many are likely truly infected (although CDC is still on the low end at 0.25% IFR, which I struggle to see being right - I expect it to come down some, but not that much).  

 

You and I thought .5 and that looks like 5.1 ? 

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7 minutes ago, Upstate25 said:

Dude do #/# then times it by 100 to get %. 121,135/2357261= .051*100=5.1%

 

I just divided the deceased by the total infection # and took it as the resolved total. 

 

I see your 5.1%

 

 

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8 minutes ago, fireguy286 said:

NY NJ CT imposing 14 day quarantine on visitors from 9 states: AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, UT, TX.

 

The tables have fully turned. 

Not sure how you enforce that....honor system?

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Today's update. This time, all the data is available from NYS.

 

383849821_Screenshot2020-06-24at3_51_44PM.png.10d813a0b6efc66d03ecae684c887c17.png

 

image.png.93171af7d4c8eb1ebc5770f8463ccae8.png

Overall testing now 11% flat for NYS, 13.3% NYC, and 9.1% xNYC.

 

The original five regions that led off reopening on 15 May will indeed go to Phase 4 on Friday. Again, there have been some concerning signs in the numbers, but to this point, NY is still looking pretty good with a very low positive testing rate and hospitalizations/ICU continuing to trend down.

 

(15:52 - Edited due to incorrect entry for the Mohawk Valley's number of positives, thanks @mcscrew for catching)

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29 minutes ago, WxInTheBronx said:

Today's update. This time, all the data is available from NYS.

image.png.4273ba4f800caa97e738c2859bf38d10.png

image.png.93171af7d4c8eb1ebc5770f8463ccae8.png

Overall testing now 11% flat for NYS, 13.3% NYC, and 9.1% xNYC.

 

The original five regions that led off reopening on 15 May will indeed go to Phase 4 on Friday. Again, there have been some concerning signs in the numbers, but to this point, NY is still looking pretty good with a very low positive testing rate and hospitalizations/ICU continuing to trend down.


Can you confirm the Mohawk Valley? Something looks off

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30 minutes ago, mcscrew said:


Can you confirm the Mohawk Valley? Something looks off

Oops - Mohawk Valley should only be 30 positives. I think they were 6 yesterday and I forgot to remove that 6 from the entry today. 630 on 1,282 tests would be ugly!

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7 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


just make up a number that makes you feel better and repeat it.

 

10k. There. New fact.

 

And whatever you do, don't blame the people in charge. 

 

The economy is hungry for more American lives.

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So many saw this coming...we saw this coming...and here we are. Just hope we don't see resurgence as well, if we do I think we will be better equipped to handle it though. 

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3 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

NYC prepared lay off, furlough 22,000 city employees amid budget crisis caused by pandemic, mayor says

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/nyc-prepared-lay-off-furlough-22-000-city-employees-amid-budget-crisis-mayor-says

This is an unfortunate consequence of the short-sighted refusal by some in Washington to fund state and local governments to cover their revenue gap. Those short-sighted politicians--even while some are campaigning to hold onto their jobs--view the jobs of fire fighters, police officers, school teachers, and first responders as expendable. In their warped worldview, public safety, public health, and elementary and secondary education don't carry much weight. Tragically, one can expect many more such layoffs across the country in the coming weeks and months.

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  • 33andrain changed the title to COVID-19 Pandemic: 23M+ Cases, 800k+ Dead
  • NJwxguy78 changed the title to COVID-19 Pandemic: ~56M Cases, ~1.3M Dead

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