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Southern states starting to take the lead in deaths per capita after NY and NJ were tops in the country since pretty much the beginning.


Sad that this is happening now. We were caught blind here. The surging deaths there now have literally no excuse.

 

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To everyone who has viewed these posts, whether or not you've voiced your support, thank you. Thank you for following along over the course of one of the longest, most difficult periods that the world

And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

God it’s been a crazy 9 months but today was a bittersweet day where it becomes that much more clear how close to the end we are 

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As if the pandemic's toll on individuals and families was not enough, a recent Kaiser Foundation evaluation estimated the cost of preventable hospitalizations, due to people not being vaccinated, to be $5,700,000,000 from June through August. That's 5.7 billion dollars. That's the price of "freedom" I guess. If you haven't already, get vaccinated. Please.

 

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/unvaccinated-covid-patients-cost-the-u-s-health-system-billions-of-dollars/

 

 

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On 3/4/2021 at 3:03 AM, ru848789 said:

 

Summary: Wanted to elaborate on the issue of comparing death rates per capita in NJ/NY vs. other states, showing how we would've had far lower rates if we weren't hit so early and so hard. This is because I see so many people who say that NJ/NY (and other NE US states like MA/RI/CT) have "done horribly" during the pandemic because our deaths, per capita, are the 1st and 2nd highest in the US (at around 2400-2600 deaths/1MM). NJ/NY would both have death rates ranging from near the middle of the pack in the US to well below the middle of the pack for death rates per capita in the US, depending on which of 2 scenarios played out with regard to being the first ones hit and hit so hard and having such high death rates early on (twice what was seen in later waves), which is easy to see when comparing against a more "typical" state, like Texas or Florida or California, which were barely hit in the spring, but hit hard in the summer and harder in the winter. NY/NJ had 50-60% of our deaths in the spring, while most states typically had only ~10% of their deaths in the spring.

Details: As per numerous previous posts of mine (and the one quoted above), the deaths per hospitalization in the spring wave in NJ/NY were double what was seen during the summer in the 2nd wave all over the US and in the winter wave all over the US, including NJ/NY. This halving of death rates, post-spring was largely due to having more efficaceous treatments and having significantly improved medical procedures (especially on dealing with anoxic/ventilated patients), which were developed by the end of the spring wave (we were the guinea pigs). All of the deaths/death rate/population data, below are from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

And keep in mind that we're comparing crappy to really crappy performance in the US relative to a host of East Asian and African countries that have per capita death rates that are 1/20th to 1/100th of the US's (and most of Europe/South America too), mostly due to far better testing-tracing-isolating, augmented by better masking/distancing. I just wanted to show that NJ and NY are nowhere near the crappiest if one takes into account how early and hard we were hit (including the much higher deaths/hosp we absorbed in the spring).

𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗛𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬:

If one halves the deaths/hosp for the spring wave, then NJ/NY both drop to about 1640-1780 deaths/1MM, which would put both states in the 15-25th range in the US, given that both NJ/NY had 50-60% of their deaths in the spring, when death rates per hospitalization were much greater, while the vast majority of states had ~10% (or less) of their deaths in the spring. Specifically, NJ had about 15,040 deaths in the spring and 8310 since spring, so that would've been about 15,830 (15,040/2 + 8310) deaths/8.88MM or 1780 deaths/1MM, while NY had about 32,000 deaths in the spring and 16,000 since the spring, so that would've been about 32,000 deaths (32K/2 + 16K)/19.45MM or 1645 deaths/1MM.

𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟮: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬

In addition to being hit first, we had almost no interventions in place when the virus was silently multiplying exponentially in the densest population areas in the country (with very high commuting densities). Again, as I posted many times back in the spring, if we had had any testing in place we could have put interventions like distancing/masking in place well before mid/late March, when testing started getting going, and likely avoided a large chunk of those spring cases/deaths on top of halving the death rates as discussed above. We also would've likely started the stay-at-home orders 1-2 weeks earlier, which several studies have said would've saved 50-80% of the lives lost in wave 1. Even if it was just a 50% reduction in cases/deaths, that added on top of halving the deaths per hospitalization in the spring, would've dropped NJ/NY even further down in death rates, overall.

If we had had 50% less cases/deaths in the spring due to better testing and earlier interventions and had the lower death rates in the spring that other states have seen since summer (meaning roughly 1/4 the deaths we had in the spring), NJ would have had 12,070 total deaths (3760 in spring vs. 15,040 actually in the spring, plus 8310 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 23.2K NJ deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2640 to 1360/1MM, which would place NJ at about 30th in the US. And NY would have had 24,000 total deaths (8000 in spring vs. 32,000 actually in the spring, plus 16,000 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 48K NY deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2480 to 1240/1MM, which would place NY at 34th in the US. Both states would have lower death rates per capita than Texas (1540/1MM) and Florida (1470 deaths/1MM), if we had not been hit first and so hard.

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝟭𝗠𝗠 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀

And if we wanted to see how states have done since the first wave, which nobody was really prepared for, but which NJ/NY were hit far harder in, as detailed above, things really get interesting. Just looking at deaths per 1MM people in selected states (mostly the ones I've discussed before, as per the post linked above), since the end of May, it shows that NJ/NY have better records than most other states (would be in the 35-40th range out of 50 states). People in this area have responded pretty well and only had one significant peak since spring, which was half the peak (in hospitalizations) vs. the spring and had about 1/4 the death rate vs. spring, due to the improved treatments/procedures as discussed previously. I'm only showing the graphs (from the link below) for NJ/NY/FL/TX, just to show the shapes of the trajectories of cases/hosp/deaths.

https://covidtracking.com/data

Arizona: 15,183 deaths/7.28MM = 2085 deaths/1MM
South Dakota: 1832 deaths/0.88MM = 2081 deaths/1MM
Texas: 42,561 deaths/28.99MM = 1468 deaths/1MM
Florida: 28,826 deaths/21.48MM = 1340 deaths/1MM
Calilfornia: 48,801 deaths/39.51MM = 1235 deaths/1MM
New Jersey: 10,049 deaths/8.88MM = 1131 deaths/1MM
New York: 17.675 deaths/19.45MM = 908 deaths/1MM

 

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Sadly, Mississippi just passed New Jersey to become the state with the highest overall COVID death rate per capita in the US. NJ/NY were generally way out in front of almost every other state, given how early and hard we were hit in spring of 2020, before anyone knew what we were dealing with, which led to the fastest exponential growth rate seen in cases for the pandemic (especially given minimal testing back then), as well as deaths per hospitalization being about 2X greater since we had no treatments or effective medical procedures early on.

 

https://www.mississippifreepress.org/15908/mississippi-now-no-1-in-all-time-covid-deaths-per-100000-dethroning-new-jersey/

 

Some said the lockdowns and generally conservative stance our area took on distancing/masking and testing/tracing/isolating in those first few months didn't "work" but as I painstakingly showed in the post from this past March, quoted above, if NJ/NY hadn't been hit so hard and early (with >50% of our deaths in Spring 2020 vs. about 10% for most states), we'd be in the middle of the pack in the US in per capita death rates, thanks to those conservative stances, as our death rates have been well below the US average since about June 2020.

 

And beyond that both NJ/NY continue to do far better than most other states in hospitalizations and deaths since the vaccines rolled out, given our much higher than average vaccination rates. Failure to follow mitigations and to achieve good vaccination rates are what has led MS to catch and surpass both NJ and NY in per capita death rates and many other low vaccination rate states will also pass NJ/NY soon, unless they can find ways to vaccinate a lot more people quickly.

 

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I have been seeing videos on social media of people going into restaurants and complaining to the employees  about them checking vaccine card and making a scene  .

They are just doing their job. Get mad at the government instead.

received_1039061773592587.jpeg

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Just found out one of my co workers is in the hospital with covid . Bad shape. Pneumonia right now. He had an appointment to take his shot 1 day after he got covid.

He is all tubed up right now.

23 years old

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2 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

Just found out one of my co workers is in the hospital with covid . Bad shape. Pneumonia right now. He had an appointment to take his shot 1 day after he got covid.

He is all tubed up right now.

23 years old


so sad. Hope he pulls through.

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The difference between lashing out at vaccines and masks and encouraging them.

 

Most deaths per capita since 6/1/21:

 

Florida the most, Arkansas 3rd, Mississippi 4th.

New Jersey 38th, Connecticut 48th, New York the least.

 

 

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“BUt pEoPLe Die FRoM EvERyTHInG. WHaT aBout ThE FLu?”
 

 

(CNN)Alabama had more people die last year during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic than births, a top health official said, as the US continues to grapple with rising coronavirus cases and deaths. 

"This past year, 2020, is going to be the first year that we know of in the history of our state where we actually had more deaths than births," Alabama Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris said Friday during a news briefing.
"Our state literally shrunk," he said.
 
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As expected, Pfizer/BioNTech announced very positive results for its mRNA vaccine given to 2245 children aged 5-11, demonstrating a strong immune response for their 10 ug dose, comparable to what was seen in previous clinical trials in 16-25 year olds using a 30 ug dose, and demonstrating an excellent safety profile with similar levels of mild side effects seen in previous trials in adults (and no evidence of myocarditis, meaning that would possibly only be a rare side effect once dosed to millions, as has been seen so far, with that very rare side effect seen in only about 13 per 1MM - and it has been reversible in just about all of them).

 

Pfizer will file for an Emergency Use Authorization shortly and FDA approval will likely come by late Octorber. This will mean that instead of 85% of the US population being eligible for vaccination, 94% will soon be eligible, which is fantastic, as transmissions in unvaccinated children have been a large driver of the current wave of infections of the delta variant (which is over 95% of current infections in the US). As an aside, Moderna is only a few weeks behind Pfizer in their trials with children aged 5-18 (in two parts, 5-11 and 12-18) and both companies expect data for children as young as 6 months by the end of the year.

 

Getting over 90% of the population to a highly immune state is likely the only way to come close to stopping the pandemic (~90% is the estimated herd immunity level for delta, which is 2-3X more transmissible than the original virus, which would've had a herd immunity around 65%) and it would be much better to achieve that via vaccination than through infection, as we know vaccinated people are far, far less likely to be hospitalized and/or die from COVID. The current count is around 680,000 unvaccinated dead from COVID vs. about 2000 vaccinated dead from COVID, 90% of which are over 65 and with comorbidities.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/health/pfizer-child-vaccine-data/index.html

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/politics/fda-covid-vaccine-trials-children.html

 

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1 hour ago, ru848789 said:

As expected, Pfizer/BioNTech announced very positive results for its mRNA vaccine given to 2245 children aged 5-11, demonstrating a strong immune response for their 10 ug dose, comparable to what was seen in previous clinical trials in 16-25 year olds using a 30 ug dose, and demonstrating an excellent safety profile with similar levels of mild side effects seen in previous trials in adults (and no evidence of myocarditis, meaning that would possibly only be a rare side effect once dosed to millions, as has been seen so far, with that very rare side effect seen in only about 13 per 1MM - and it has been reversible in just about all of them).

 

Pfizer will file for an Emergency Use Authorization shortly and FDA approval will likely come by late Octorber. This will mean that instead of 85% of the US population being eligible for vaccination, 94% will soon be eligible, which is fantastic, as transmissions in unvaccinated children have been a large driver of the current wave of infections of the delta variant (which is over 95% of current infections in the US). As an aside, Moderna is only a few weeks behind Pfizer in their trials with children aged 5-18 (in two parts, 5-11 and 12-18) and both companies expect data for children as young as 6 months by the end of the year.

 

Getting over 90% of the population to a highly immune state is likely the only way to come close to stopping the pandemic (~90% is the estimated herd immunity level for delta, which is 2-3X more transmissible than the original virus, which would've had a herd immunity around 65%) and it would be much better to achieve that via vaccination than through infection, as we know vaccinated people are far, far less likely to be hospitalized and/or die from COVID. The current count is around 680,000 unvaccinated dead from COVID vs. about 2000 vaccinated dead from COVID, 90% of which are over 65 and with comorbidities.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/health/pfizer-child-vaccine-data/index.html

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/politics/fda-covid-vaccine-trials-children.html

 


I know late October is relatively very fast… I was hoping for sooner than that.

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So last week I was traveling for a celebration of life in Kansas and I'm sure I was around some unvaxxed people. Got back Saturday and woke up yesterday feeling like I got hit by a bus. Every muscle hurt. Last night I had a temp of 100 and major chills. Today however I woke up and am mostly feeling better though still a tad achy. Guess I should still get tested?

It's also been nearly 6 months since my 2nd Pfizer shot

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50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So last week I was traveling for a celebration of life in Kansas and I'm sure I was around some unvaxxed people. Got back Saturday and woke up yesterday feeling like I got hit by a bus. Every muscle hurt. Last night I had a temp of 100 and major chills. Today however I woke up and am mostly feeling better though still a tad achy. Guess I should still get tested?

It's also been nearly 6 months since my 2nd Pfizer shot


If you feel better I don’t understand the need to test, unless for employment or some other reason. That’s just me though. Glad you had it mild.

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58 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


If you feel better I don’t understand the need to test, unless for employment or some other reason. That’s just me though. Glad you had it mild.

That's why I'm debating getting it. Its likely someone else had it and I contracted it from them but my parents are coming to visit next week and I want to make sure I'm negative before then.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's why I'm debating getting it. Its likely someone else had it and I contracted it from them but my parents are coming to visit next week and I want to make sure I'm negative before then.


I think it’s definitely worth a call to your doc for an opinion.  

 

 

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