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This post was inspired by a good question from a friend.  The Times article below does a good job of comparing rates of myocarditis in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people and there's roughly a 5-10X increase in myocarditis from COVID vs. in vaccinated people - not to mention a far greater risk of death from COVID - and almost all of the cases of myocarditis in vaccinated people resolved quickly.

 

Posting this because we're starting to see a bunch of anti-vaxx misinformation on this topic, as there was a preprint of an unreviewed paper that has been retracted, as it had a bad math error showing erroneously high myocarditis risks in vaccinated people. My guess is many of the anti-vaxxers citing this retracted paper don't know and/or don't care that the paper was retracted.

 

I find it unfortunate that the scientific publishing process has become so confrontational and misused. Back in the "old days" when I published scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals, preprint servers weren't around and the only people who saw the papers in draft form were the peer reviewers. Fortunately, my papers never had more than minor issues with them (typos/minor editorial comments) and were all eventually published and I can't even imagine having real errors in them being misused by members of the public, as is happening now.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/.../covid-myocarditis-vaccine.html

 

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/retracted-canadian-study-that...

 

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To everyone who has viewed these posts, whether or not you've voiced your support, thank you. Thank you for following along over the course of one of the longest, most difficult periods that the world

And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

God it’s been a crazy 9 months but today was a bittersweet day where it becomes that much more clear how close to the end we are 

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12 hours ago, WxInTheHeights said:

Per CDC data, NYS has now crossed the 75% mark of all adults fully vaccinated. The one-dose number is at 84%.


That’s really remarkable!  
 

 

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On 8/18/2021 at 4:24 AM, NJwxguy78 said:

The US shows no sign of slowing down covid19 transmission. The UK is on fire again as well.

 

Again, the only mechanism I see to slow this down is the quick burn rate. We should be through the worst of it by October*, but lots of pain still to come for unvaxxed areas. 
 

*this assumes a more efficient variable doesn’t crop up. 

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I think this was the right idea.  Many of you expressed a similar sentiment.

 

There will still be regional flares, but they will be easier to deal with as resources, including skilled medical pros, can move from one fire to another if the whole world isn’t burning simultaneously.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc7news.com/amp/covid-19-peak-delta-variant-covid-cases-in-us-coronavirus-surge/11059117/

 

 

 

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Great news on Merck's molnupiravir, the first orally available (capsule) antiviral for COVID, as it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 50% in mild to moderately ill, unvaccinated COVID patients in an interim phase III analysis and the drug was extremely well tolerated with no major side effects observed.

 

Specifically, the interim analysis showed that 7.3% of patients treated with molnupiravir were hospitalized within 29 days and of the patients who received a placebo, 14.1% were hospitalized or died by day 29. No deaths were reported in patients who were given molnupiravir within the 29-day period, while eight deaths were reported in placebo-treated patients.

 

The trial was halted due to the very positive results (unethical to keep giving placebo to more people in a trial) and Merck will file for an EUA (emergency use authorization) with the FDA ASAP. Currently, the only antiviral approved for COVID is remdesivir, which is only available via IV, so having an orally bioavailable COVID treatment is huge.

 

For background, the third link below has some info on the drug, which I worked on for about 8 months after retirement, while consulting with my old department at Merck on the process development side of the manufacturing process for the active ingredient. Very happy for my old colleagues.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/merck-to-seek-emergency-authorization-for-oral-covid-19-treatment.html?fbclid=IwAR3qIf_CoIdwOjfhx9SgOBUCjfLl8Xt4vS1i1sywAxMe3hNekryX_wZQRV4

 

https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgebacks-investigational-oral-antiviral-molnupiravir-reduced-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-approximately-50-percent-compared-to-placebo-for-patients-with-mild-or-moderat/?fbclid=IwAR1aavKbp2Xwr2vK2MmctEY0cFz24nJmV7m8o3t699QhiWNOYbZt5yLyD_0

 

 

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4 hours ago, ru848789 said:

Great news on Merck's molnupiravir, the first orally available (capsule) antiviral for COVID, as it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 50% in mild to moderately ill, unvaccinated COVID patients in an interim phase III analysis and the drug was extremely well tolerated with no major side effects observed.

 

Specifically, the interim analysis showed that 7.3% of patients treated with molnupiravir were hospitalized within 29 days and of the patients who received a placebo, 14.1% were hospitalized or died by day 29. No deaths were reported in patients who were given molnupiravir within the 29-day period, while eight deaths were reported in placebo-treated patients.

 

The trial was halted due to the very positive results (unethical to keep giving placebo to more people in a trial) and Merck will file for an EUA (emergency use authorization) with the FDA ASAP. Currently, the only antiviral approved for COVID is remdesivir, which is only available via IV, so having an orally bioavailable COVID treatment is huge.

 

For background, the third link below has some info on the drug, which I worked on for about 8 months after retirement, while consulting with my old department at Merck on the process development side of the manufacturing process for the active ingredient. Very happy for my old colleagues.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/.../merck-to-seek-emergency...

 

https://www.merck.com/.../merck-and-ridgebacks.../

 

 


Impressive -

 

I might be getting ahead of myself here, but I can imagine the recent investment in this class of drugs may result in improved treatments for cold & flu treatments as well, no?

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1 hour ago, WxInTheHeights said:

This news + EUA vaccine for kids 5-11 soon might finally have the end of the pandemic in sight.

Maybe but do you think every parent wants their kid vaccinated ?

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1 hour ago, Snowman11 said:

Maybe but do you think every parent wants their kid vaccinated ?


probably about half. That would be enough to keep Covid levels from overwhelming hospitals.

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4 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:


Impressive -

 

I might be getting ahead of myself here, but I can imagine the recent investment in this class of drugs may result in improved treatments for cold & flu treatments as well, no?

Yes, you are correct.  In fact, I recall discussions with the clinicians at Merck, some of whom were more optimistic about its potential use in other viral infections (including cold/flu) vs. COVID, especially if the COVID trial didn't go well - I'm sure they're ecstatic with these results.  I'm seeing a few old Merck colleagues at our Rutgers tailgate tomorrow, so will hopefully hear some first hand news on the reaction around the Company.  

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Nice commentary on Merck's new antiviral in Endpoints, noting that molnupiravir will now be competition for the Regeneron and Lilly antibody cocktails for treatment of COVID infections. The antibodies work quite well, but they still require injections/infusions, which are much more complicated than simply taking a pill, and they're a lot more expensive to manufacture than molnupiravir, which is a simple "small molecule" compound. Of course, the best course is vaccination, but the reality is we still have over 110MM unvaccinated Americans, so some will continue to get infected and this drug could reduce the severity of the disease and even save lives.

https://endpts.com/merck-claims-pandemic-breakthrough-covid-19-pill-reduces-hospitalization-and-death-by-50/

 

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32 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

Yes, you are correct.  In fact, I recall discussions with the clinicians at Merck, some of whom were more optimistic about its potential use in other viral infections (including cold/flu) vs. COVID, especially if the COVID trial didn't go well - I'm sure they're ecstatic with these results.  I'm seeing a few old Merck colleagues at our Rutgers tailgate tomorrow, so will hopefully hear some first hand news on the reaction around the Company.  


thank you for sharing!

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1 hour ago, Jefflaw77 said:

This doesn’t seem good no? 
 

https://news.trust.org/item/20211001194329-xkwip


That is pretty well-documented by now.  @ru848789 broke that down a few pages back. Infection is going to happen. T-cell memory is likely still there preventing death. 


We are almost through the last great delta wave. The combination of drugs to treat Covid and high numbers of immunized/natural immunity mean we are probably through the worst.

 

 

 

 

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