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To everyone who has viewed these posts, whether or not you've voiced your support, thank you. Thank you for following along over the course of one of the longest, most difficult periods that the world

And on the other side of the coin, NYCDOH officials reporting zero C19 deaths for 11 July. Preliminary and subject to change, but this is the most significant milestone yet.

God it’s been a crazy 9 months but today was a bittersweet day where it becomes that much more clear how close to the end we are 

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5 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:


 

nice.

 

curious to see when moderna will be recommended.

Going back to my doctor in December to see if I still have antibodies from the 2nd shot.

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8 hours ago, Rygar said:


This is a really good read, thanks for sharing! 

 

I have been wondering if this began outside of Wuhan and just exploded there.  
 

I don’t expect to learn anything new from China, so we have to look elsewhere. The testing in Europe shows Covid19 along the same timeline as “case zero” in Wuhan. We have not looked at blood samples here in the US from late 2019 in any organized way, but we should. 
 

I still don’t think we will know the reality for many years, if ever. 
 

Would be fascinating if animals carried this around the globe faster than we did, and it broke out simultaneously in different places. 

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2 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:


This is a really good read, thanks for sharing! 

 

I have been wondering if this began outside of Wuhan and just exploded there.  
 

I don’t expect to learn anything new from China, so we have to look elsewhere. The testing in Europe shows Covid19 along the same timeline as “case zero” in Wuhan. We have not looked at blood samples here in the US from late 2019 in any organized way, but we should. 
 

I still don’t think we will know the reality for many years, if ever. 
 

Would be fascinating if animals carried this around the globe faster than we did, and it broke out simultaneously in different places. 

We would know so much more about this if it did not begin in China.

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1 hour ago, Analog96 said:

We would know so much more about this if it did not begin in China.


I get your point - I’m just saying it is possible that it began elsewhere and exploded in China. 
 

Regardless, the lack of transparency around bio labs should concern everyone.

 

Also I’m still fascinated that a very similar sars virus broke through decades ago that I had never read about before.

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Finally getting data from the NIH "Mix and Match" booster study, where people who had been fully vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or J&J vaccines received one of the three vaccines (including the original one they got) as a booster. The great news is all of the combinations produced very robust immunological responses, as expected, which may be important as there is some data indicating that vaccine effectiveness might be waning a bit after 6-8 months (especially in stopping infections, but not much waning in stopping severe COVID).

 

However, even if the waning effectiveness is minor there's literally no downside to getting a booster (no new observed safety effects) and the small upside in improved protection, especially for those over 65 and with comorbities, is worth pursuing at least for those folks, if not everyone (as they're doing in some countries). Will be interesting to see the final results, as the results, so far, are preliminary, and will be interesting to see whether the US recommends any mixing/matching. The two comments that stood out to me were that those who got J&J originally were "boosted" better by an mRNA vaccine over a 2nd J&J dose (but we don't know the true "correlate of protection" to know exactly what that means for immunity, although a more robust antibody response almost has to be better at least by a bit) and that the boosting obtained from Pfizer and Moderna for those who originally got either vaccine was essentially the same.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mix-match-covid-vaccine-boosters-are-effective-nih-study-finds-rcna2974

 

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The Times article, below, includes the data from June through September, when there were 100,000 COVID deaths, of which only 2900 were in vaccinated people, meaning 97,100 of those deaths were in unvaccinated people, the vast majority of which could have been avoided if they had simply gotten vaccinated.

 

Looking over a longer timeframe, sInce the end of April, when vaccines had become widely available to all, through now, 150,000 Americans have died from COVID, the vast majority of which were unvaccinated, representing completely unnecessary deaths. Same story as above.

 

And sadly, these unnecessary deaths are highly concentrated in red states, which have, by far, the lowest vaccination rates, which can be seen in the two graphics below from the Times article. Here are a couple of examples of the data, showing total COVID deaths since May 1st (and deaths per 1MM), the vast majority of which would be considered preventable. In addition to the significantly higher vaccination rates in blue states, these states are also much more likely to have their populations wearing masks in high risk situations, with the combination leading to 3-5X lower death rates per 1MM for most blue states vs. red states since 5/1. Vaccination rates have also been lower in some minority populations, but that has improved significantly and is a much smaller factor than the red/blue factor (among states and within states).

 

NJ: 2100 deaths since 5/1 (235 deaths/1MM), 74% w/at least 1 vaxx

NY: 3800 deaths since 5/1 (195 deaths/1MM), 72% w/at least 1 vaxx

CA: 9600 deaths since 5/1 (243 deaths/1MM), 73% w/at least 1 vaxx

FL: 21700 deaths since 5/1 (1014 deaths/1MM, 67% w/at least 1 vaxx

TX: 18200 deaths since 5/1 (627 deaths/1MM), 60% w/at least 1 vaxx

LA: 3900 deaths since 5/1 (867 deaths/1MM), 53% w/at least 1 vaxx

 

Finally, there's really no nice way to say this, so I'll just say it: the anti-vaxxers (and anti-maskers) spreading misinformation at odds with all of the overwhelming scientific data detailing the benefits of these lifesaving vaccines (and masks) on social media actually have blood on their hands, as they've influenced others to not get vaccinated (or wear masks), leading to infections, hospitalizations and, unfortunately, deaths, almost all of which could've been avoided.

 

And unfortunately, social media has been the primary tool in disseminating this misinformation. It's heartbreaking to see people turning down vaccines for a far more deadly disease - COVID - than they ever did in the past for even far less deadly diseases like measles, mumps, chicken pox, etc. and IMO it's no coincidence that this has occurred during a time when social media has become so powerful and ubiquitous.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/.../01/us/us-covid-deaths-700k.html

 

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On 10/13/2021 at 3:56 PM, ru848789 said:

Finally getting data from the NIH "Mix and Match" booster study, where people who had been fully vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or J&J vaccines received one of the three vaccines (including the original one they got) as a booster. The great news is all of the combinations produced very robust immunological responses, as expected, which may be important as there is some data indicating that vaccine effectiveness might be waning a bit after 6-8 months (especially in stopping infections, but not much waning in stopping severe COVID).

 

However, even if the waning effectiveness is minor there's literally no downside to getting a booster (no new observed safety effects) and the small upside in improved protection, especially for those over 65 and with comorbities, is worth pursuing at least for those folks, if not everyone (as they're doing in some countries). Will be interesting to see the final results, as the results, so far, are preliminary, and will be interesting to see whether the US recommends any mixing/matching. The two comments that stood out to me were that those who got J&J originally were "boosted" better by an mRNA vaccine over a 2nd J&J dose (but we don't know the true "correlate of protection" to know exactly what that means for immunity, although a more robust antibody response almost has to be better at least by a bit) and that the boosting obtained from Pfizer and Moderna for those who originally got either vaccine was essentially the same.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mix-match-covid-vaccine-boosters-are-effective-nih-study-finds-rcna2974

 

 

A few comments following up on this and today's FDA advisory committee unanimous approval of Moderna's booster shot, which the FDA will approve shortly.  Keep in mind that the Moderna booster is a half dose vs. the original 2-dose regime, but remember, that regime was 2x100 ug doses vs. Pfizer's 2x30 ug doses. The greater doses for Moderna are likely why the protection seems to have waned a bit less than Pfizer's, at least for mild infections (and why Moderna has more minor/modest side effects).

 

Probably because of the half booster dose of 50 ug, it appears that the immune response from the Pfizer and Moderna 3rd shot boosters in the mix/match NIH study are nearly identical, which is why my wife and I decided to go ahead and get our Pfizer boosters today (we waited to see the head-to-head data, in case Moderna's booster was "better" and it doesn't appear to be).  

 

With regard to J&J, the FDA is meeting to discuss their 2nd dose data tomorrow, so hopefully we'll have a path forward soon (within a week) for folks who want to follow scientific recommendations (and not self-medicating, in a sense).

 

Of course, much of this is somewhat qualitative, since there is no established "correlates of protection" i.e., any known antibody level (and/or T-cell/B-cell levels) that predicts protection from infection (or severe COVID/death); the scientific literature review article below has a wealth of information on approaches to establishing correlates of protection and data obtained so far in those still incomplete efforts. That's why the bottom line for me is that I've felt quite comfortable with my original 2 doses (and haven't limited my activities at all since fully vaccinated) but was also happy to get a 3rd dose to further increase my immune response/protection with zero downside. However, I wish we could somehow make more inroads with unvaccinated people than getting highly protected people 3rd doses.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18450-4

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Dr Oz said the covid  vaccines are becoming less efficient as time goes on with new strains emerging.  He then said that immunity from the virus is just as strong as the first 2 doses of the vaccine. 

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1 hour ago, Snowman11 said:

 Colin  Powell has passed away

He was vaccinated according to Fox 5 Good Day NY.

He died from Complications from Covid


he was vaccinated, but also had blood cancer.

 

sad. 

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47 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Dr Oz said the covid  vaccines are becoming less efficient as time goes on with new strains emerging.  He then said that immunity from the virus is just as strong as the first 2 doses of the vaccine. 


He is a cardiothoracic surgeon, and should stick to his field.

 

That’s like my dentist discussing liver disease.

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6 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:


He is a cardiothoracic surgeon, and should stick to his field.

 

That’s like my dentist discussing liver disease.

Right, I am sure he brushed over it a little in med school, but it is far from his specialty.

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On 10/17/2021 at 3:02 PM, WxInTheHeights said:

Uhoh...warning signs from the UK? Another surge en route?

 

 

Very likely the UK increase is much more due to the UK eliminating any distancing/masking restrictions a few months ago, along with transmission rate increases in the young (especially schoolchildren) vs. the delta variant variation AY.4.2 being any more transmissible, although that possibility can't be discounted either. 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec9d5d-9e02-4cc4-95e7-1dcbb1844d43

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14 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:


he was vaccinated, but also had blood cancer.

 

sad. 

Yes and he was 84.  Fully vaccinated elderly people who are seriously immunocompromised, as a myeloma patient would be, are still at much higher risk of severe COVID/death than people not in those categories.  Very sad.  A great American in so many ways.  

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