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Tropical Storm Fay

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Possible Tropical Storm impacts this weekend, and the board is dead.

 

 

Bueller? 

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Latest TWO from this morning:

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of 
northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic 
waters.  The low is expected to move northeastward near or just 
offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then 
turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast 
Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form 
within the next couple of days.  Regardless of development, the low 
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause 
some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the 
coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few 
days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer 
Banks through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

107666583_3293035587428565_4897338114280954892_n.png.260587cd16378d2c4ea6cdb7628ce716.png

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Would help if we could get this thread pinned. First likely TC to affect our waters since Jose (I believe) and wouldn't this be one of the earliest for us?

 

Nevertheless I don't see much more than some gusty winds (to 40 MPH?) on the coastlines with surge problems, with up to 2-3" of rain to accompany it. 

 

For those of us inland N&W of NYC...uh...half inch to an inch of rain barring any enhancement?

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Surprised this thread is quiet

Nice little storm on the way

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Thread ^^

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Looks like we have a Severe thunderstorm chance saturday as well

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26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Looks like we have a Severe thunderstorm chance saturday as well

Those feeder bands will be moving into an environment rich with helicity w/a potent LLJ/onshore flow... There will most likely be a few waterspouts. NJ/LI/CT coastlines favored, but the threat will carry inland a bit.

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Direct access to gif referenced in that tweet ^^

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh30_trend.gif

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Haven't been high on the 3K NAM's up the Bay and over Philly ('West') track last few runs, 12z's wobble east makes more sense, probably more to come.  

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For posterity... The NAM with the not so unexpected super correction ENE. The RGEM with the modest correction WNW. I'd lead towards what the ECMWF/RGEM are intimating.

 

rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_fh33_trend.gif

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3 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

Surprised this thread is quiet

Nice little storm on the way


we kicked out all but our favorite members.

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