Tropical Storm Fay

[Crossbowftw3 571]

BGM take...

 

Friday and Friday night...
Models in general agreement that a coastal, quasi-tropical
moisture laden system will track north during this time period
and spread clouds and showers to a good portion of the forecast
area, but especially the eastern half. A cold front, supported
by an upper low dropping through the Great Lakes, will affect
western NY and the far border of our area on Friday night. The
interaction between the two features is, unfortunately, very
uncertain which plays into the decisions on any impact from
possible locally heavy rainfall. Previous model trends had been
divergent with about half indicating an axis of heavy rain
mainly falling over eastern NY and New England, with the other
side positioning high amounts of rain over the Catskills and
NEPA zones. Latest operational guidance has come more into
agreement that there could be a stripe of 2 to 4 inch rains
along and east of I-81. That said, ensemble probabilities were
indicating very low percent chances for rainfall amounts in
excess of 1, or 2 inches...but did the pattern did spatially
target our eastern zones, similar to the individual operational
models. At this point, we`re still in a wait and see mode
regarding the evolution of the system and also model trends. We
will highlight the potential for locally heavy rainfall in our
eastern areas within our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some good
news is that there is room for runoff in the hydrologic systems
around here to help mitigate a potential for widespread
flooding.

[Ace 808]

We have Fay...

 

 

[Ace 808]

43 minutes ago, Apophis said:

HRRR Hour 24. Neat storm! Also, tornado threat in the band spiraling into NJ? 

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.

[WxLover 1,775]

Was the last tropical storm up here Irene?

[Crossbowftw3 571]

3 minutes ago, WxLover said:

Was the last tropical storm up here Irene?

Technically it was Jose, or one of the storms from last year. Can't remember which.

[CCB! 29,887]

9 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

[Crossbowftw3 571]

1 minute ago, CCB! said:

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

Agree, probably very limited instability actually builds inland to sustain a chance for brief tornadoes.

[CCB! 29,887]

 

[WxLover 1,775]

Wow!

[uofmiami 2,327]

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have 
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North 
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer 
Banks today.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the 
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and 
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east 
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the 
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity 
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an 
area of light to moderate westerly shear.  These environmental 
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.  
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the 
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of 
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification.  Fay 
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or 
Saturday. 

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center 
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the 
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model 
fields imply.  As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side 
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is 
indicated in the model fields. 

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a 
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the  
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated 
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic 
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains 
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the 
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a 
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, 
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[mcscrew 337]

50 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.

From the TS Warning:
 

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible
          tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

[fireguy286 1,813]

Don't @ me but, looking at the data, I get why, and always assumed it would it make it to TS but seems a little early, I figured maybe next update. 

[NJwxguy78 24,016]

I am in Toms River ready to chase.

[WxInTheHeights 3,299]

 

[Apophis 1,242]

21z HRRR

[amonte1219 78]

Air travel tomorrow afternoon should be interesting

[Ace 808]

2 hours ago, CCB! said:

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

 

Yep I agree. My response was based on the HRRR which shows a very inland track. Compared to the alternative, more realistic track (NHC tack) which has the center hugging the coast/just inland, it probably only marginally increases tor chances. Like you said, a waterspout are probably our best chance at seeing a spin up with this system

 

It may be early, but Saturday looks potentially interesting. 

[Apophis 1,242]

[Oglem 598]

Wow, some really heavy bands depicted on 01z HRRR:

Should be an interesting day tomorrow!

[OHweather 2,020]

 

A long tweet thread. Curious where the western cutoff to the heavy rain ends up being.  

Fay...where to start. OK, rain. Unsurprisingly, the environment will be very favorable for heavy rain north/east of the center, with PWATs of 2-2.50", skinny CAPE, and warm cloud depth to above 600mb/around 14k ft. The drops will be warm/a bit small, but will be tons of them. 1/9 pic.twitter.com/xtKeoSNhUQ

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020

In general, residence time of this band will only be 2-3 hours in any given spot from extreme eastern PA/NJ to LI and the HV/NY). However, 2-3 hours of heavy rain with embedded 1-2"+ per/hr rates can hit FFG in urban areas or areas that have recently seen heavy rain. 3/9 pic.twitter.com/PYZHnM9FPJ

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020

In terms of wind, meh but a few interesting spots. Along the coast, probably some 40-50 MPH type gusts from NJ to Long Island/CT (it's a tropical storm after all)...maybe locally 50-60 if a convectively active mesovort smacks into land somewhere. 5/9 pic.twitter.com/FW4YPsML7f

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020

 

While those soundings have very weak instability, it's worth noting that the environment immediately south of that rain band will feature a bit more CAPE (which will enhance updrafts some) and even some mid-lvl dry air/DCAPE. 7/9 pic.twitter.com/GAhTyU5988

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020

To sum up...
-Some flash flood risk (on top of typical urban stuff) DE/E PA/NJ/NY/W New Eng, though western extent ?
-Windy along the coast from NJ to CT
-Sporadic damage possible inland NJ, LI, lower HV/S CT with embedded convection
-A couple tornadoes possible NJ/SE NY/CT
9/9

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020