Crossbowftw3 571 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 BGM take... Friday and Friday night... Models in general agreement that a coastal, quasi-tropical moisture laden system will track north during this time period and spread clouds and showers to a good portion of the forecast area, but especially the eastern half. A cold front, supported by an upper low dropping through the Great Lakes, will affect western NY and the far border of our area on Friday night. The interaction between the two features is, unfortunately, very uncertain which plays into the decisions on any impact from possible locally heavy rainfall. Previous model trends had been divergent with about half indicating an axis of heavy rain mainly falling over eastern NY and New England, with the other side positioning high amounts of rain over the Catskills and NEPA zones. Latest operational guidance has come more into agreement that there could be a stripe of 2 to 4 inch rains along and east of I-81. That said, ensemble probabilities were indicating very low percent chances for rainfall amounts in excess of 1, or 2 inches...but did the pattern did spatially target our eastern zones, similar to the individual operational models. At this point, we`re still in a wait and see mode regarding the evolution of the system and also model trends. We will highlight the potential for locally heavy rainfall in our eastern areas within our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some good news is that there is room for runoff in the hydrologic systems around here to help mitigate a potential for widespread flooding. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ace 1,329 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 We have Fay... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ace 1,329 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 43 minutes ago, Apophis said: HRRR Hour 24. Neat storm! Also, tornado threat in the band spiraling into NJ? If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WxLover 2,612 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Was the last tropical storm up here Irene? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxLover said: Was the last tropical storm up here Irene? Technically it was Jose, or one of the storms from last year. Can't remember which. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ace said: If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted. I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, CCB! said: I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though. Agree, probably very limited instability actually builds inland to sustain a chance for brief tornadoes. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WxLover 2,612 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Wow! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
uofmiami 2,615 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mcscrew 371 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ace said: If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted. From the TS Warning: * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
fireguy286 1,931 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Don't @ me but, looking at the data, I get why, and always assumed it would it make it to TS but seems a little early, I figured maybe next update. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,625 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I am in Toms River ready to chase. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WxInTheHeights 4,065 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Apophis 1,483 Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 21z HRRR Quote Link to post Share on other sites
amonte1219 278 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Air travel tomorrow afternoon should be interesting Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ace 1,329 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, CCB! said: I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though. Yep I agree. My response was based on the HRRR which shows a very inland track. Compared to the alternative, more realistic track (NHC tack) which has the center hugging the coast/just inland, it probably only marginally increases tor chances. Like you said, a waterspout are probably our best chance at seeing a spin up with this system It may be early, but Saturday looks potentially interesting. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Apophis 1,483 Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Oglem 1,207 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Wow, some really heavy bands depicted on 01z HRRR: Should be an interesting day tomorrow! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OHweather 2,318 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 A long tweet thread. Curious where the western cutoff to the heavy rain ends up being. Fay...where to start. OK, rain. Unsurprisingly, the environment will be very favorable for heavy rain north/east of the center, with PWATs of 2-2.50", skinny CAPE, and warm cloud depth to above 600mb/around 14k ft. The drops will be warm/a bit small, but will be tons of them. 1/9 pic.twitter.com/xtKeoSNhUQ — Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020 In general, residence time of this band will only be 2-3 hours in any given spot from extreme eastern PA/NJ to LI and the HV/NY). However, 2-3 hours of heavy rain with embedded 1-2"+ per/hr rates can hit FFG in urban areas or areas that have recently seen heavy rain. 3/9 pic.twitter.com/PYZHnM9FPJ — Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020 In terms of wind, meh but a few interesting spots. Along the coast, probably some 40-50 MPH type gusts from NJ to Long Island/CT (it's a tropical storm after all)...maybe locally 50-60 if a convectively active mesovort smacks into land somewhere. 5/9 pic.twitter.com/FW4YPsML7f — Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020 While those soundings have very weak instability, it's worth noting that the environment immediately south of that rain band will feature a bit more CAPE (which will enhance updrafts some) and even some mid-lvl dry air/DCAPE. 7/9 pic.twitter.com/GAhTyU5988 — Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020 To sum up... -Some flash flood risk (on top of typical urban stuff) DE/E PA/NJ/NY/W New Eng, though western extent ? -Windy along the coast from NJ to CT -Sporadic damage possible inland NJ, LI, lower HV/S CT with embedded convection -A couple tornadoes possible NJ/SE NY/CT 9/9 — Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) July 10, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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