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BGM take...

 

Friday and Friday night...
Models in general agreement that a coastal, quasi-tropical
moisture laden system will track north during this time period
and spread clouds and showers to a good portion of the forecast
area, but especially the eastern half. A cold front, supported
by an upper low dropping through the Great Lakes, will affect
western NY and the far border of our area on Friday night. The
interaction between the two features is, unfortunately, very
uncertain which plays into the decisions on any impact from
possible locally heavy rainfall. Previous model trends had been
divergent with about half indicating an axis of heavy rain
mainly falling over eastern NY and New England, with the other
side positioning high amounts of rain over the Catskills and
NEPA zones. Latest operational guidance has come more into
agreement that there could be a stripe of 2 to 4 inch rains
along and east of I-81. That said, ensemble probabilities were
indicating very low percent chances for rainfall amounts in
excess of 1, or 2 inches...but did the pattern did spatially
target our eastern zones, similar to the individual operational
models. At this point, we`re still in a wait and see mode
regarding the evolution of the system and also model trends. We
will highlight the potential for locally heavy rainfall in our
eastern areas within our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some good
news is that there is room for runoff in the hydrologic systems
around here to help mitigate a potential for widespread
flooding.
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Sunrise this morning in Toms River ahead of the storm. 

The passage of Tropical Storm Fay brought a swath of 2”-4” rain with some locally higher amounts. Some totals:   Allentown: 1.92” Atlantic City: 3.24” New York City: ...JFK: 2

Pouring out. Put baby right to sleep. 👌

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  • CCB! changed the title to Tropical Storm Fay
43 minutes ago, Apophis said:

HRRR Hour 24. Neat storm! Also, tornado threat in the band spiraling into NJ? 

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.

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9 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

Agree, probably very limited instability actually builds inland to sustain a chance for brief tornadoes.

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Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have 
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North 
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer 
Banks today.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the 
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and 
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east 
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the 
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity 
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an 
area of light to moderate westerly shear.  These environmental 
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.  
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the 
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of 
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification.  Fay 
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or 
Saturday. 

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center 
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the 
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model 
fields imply.  As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side 
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is 
indicated in the model fields. 

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a 
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the  
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated 
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic 
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains 
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the 
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a 
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, 
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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50 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

If that is the track it takes or somewhat similar, definite tornado threat. High SRH and low LCL heights setup. Other parameters suck but a brief, weak tornado can't be discounted.


From the TS Warning:
 

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible
          tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

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2 hours ago, CCB! said:

I think we see at least two waterspout sightings along the NJ coastline, upwards towards LI. Not sure we see much develop/move inland though.

 

Yep I agree. My response was based on the HRRR which shows a very inland track. Compared to the alternative, more realistic track (NHC tack) which has the center hugging the coast/just inland, it probably only marginally increases tor chances. Like you said, a waterspout are probably our best chance at seeing a spin up with this system

 

It may be early, but Saturday looks potentially interesting. 

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A long tweet thread. Curious where the western cutoff to the heavy rain ends up being.  

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