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Current Observations: Met Winter 20-21


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Good morning all from Starkville, MS! Yep, Mississippi that is, where i’m at currently finishing up my degree, and already my semester begins today, although classes have already been cancelled! Crazy

Always reppin   

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At 11 am CST, frigid air continued to push into Texas. Select temperatures:

 

Amarillo: 0° (low so far: -1°)

Dallas-Fort Worth: 17°

Houston: 34°

Lubbock: 6° (low so far: 5°; old record: 12°, 2004)

 

The temperature in Houston will likely reach the teens tomorrow morning. The last time that happened was January 17, 2018 when the temperature fell to 19°. The last time before that was January 8, 1996 when the temperature also fell to 19°. Overall, Houston can expect its lowest temperature since December 24, 1989 when the mercury dipped to 11°.

 

Select temperature levels and most recent occurrences:

 

Amarillo:

< 0°: February 14, 2021: -1° (through 11 am CST)

< -1°: January 7, 2017: -3°

< -3°: February 10, 2011: -6°

< -6°: December 22, 1989: -8°

< -8°: February 11, 1986: -12°

< -12°: February 1, 1951: -14°

 

Dallas-Fort Worth:

< 16°: January 17, 2018: 13°

< 13°: February 4, 1996: 8°

< 8°: December 23, 1989: -1°

 

Houston:

< 20°: January 17, 2018: 19°

< 19°: December 24, 1989: 11°

 

Lubbock:

< 10°: February 14, 2021: 5° (through 11 am CST)

< 5°: January 1, 2018: 4°

< 4°: February 2, 2011: 2° 

< 2°: December 23, 1989: -1°

< -1°: December 22, 1989: -2°

< -2°: January 5, 1971: -4°

< -4°: January 13, 1963: -16°

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615A/15. Adding several graphics from the 4AM NWS forecast process inclusive of the ICE STORM WARNING coverage area (purple), the HPC HREF ensemble 1/2" of glaze expectation by 7A Tuesday (blue), WPC ensemble probs of .10 glaze (orange) by 7A Tuesday and the much lower prob of 1/2" glaze.  I would expect power outages in the NWS warning area and SPC HREF Blue coverage area.  IF these amounts work out- I think it will be big.  Modeling doesn't necessarily guarantee freezing longer than 4AM Tuesday in nw NJ, so if it's not, then the rain is non freezing during its heaviest 3 hour period. Still the ground is cold so I'd plan on a bad night, and in fact a bad day today in the  I84 corridor on all untreated surfaces.  Regarding info near NYC... just be careful. Untreated's slippery near NYC-LI today-this evening,  should ease sometime tonight. Looking at 06z/15 NAM FOUS...if that surface wind stays ne in NYC through tonight as the sfc low transits coastal NJ, the guidance will be too warm at the surface.  This needs careful monitoring. My guess, via the 06z/15 guidance, there may be an underplaying of extensive ice damage, especially just west of the 4AM warning.   Just a degree or two makes a huge difference. I'm not expert enough to know for sure. So for me here in Wantage NJ, if its still 31-32F at 4A Tuesday, we've got pretty big problems in far nw NJ/se NYS/nePA. We will see how the probs work. Prep worst and hope for the best.  

 

It has been intermittent freezing rain showers here in Wantage of far nw NJ since 430AM with 26/21 and an icy deck. 

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Screen Shot 2021-02-15 at 5.10.29 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-15 at 5.40.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-15 at 5.40.38 AM.png

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Morning thoughts...

 

A record cold air mass moved into Texas yesterday producing widespread snow. Snowfall amounts included: Amarillo: 4.1”; Austin: 1.0”; Dallas: 4.0” (old record: 3.0”, 1951); and, Lubbock: 1.6”. Widespread record cold was present this morning.

 

In the Pacific Northwest, the three-day snowstorm came to an end in Seattle with rain. The final accumulation was 12.4”,.

 

At 8:40 am, some patches of freezing rain moving across southeast New York State. It will be mostly cloudy with some pockets of freezing drizzle and drizzle. Steadier precipitation will begin moving into the region this afternoon or this evening. An area running east-northeastward from northeast Pennsylvania to central New England will likely pick up 0.25”-0.50” freezing rain with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50”-1.50” precipitation is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 38°

 

Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be noticeably milder for a time in parts of the region.

 

In the long-range, there reasonable consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

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