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Pretty darn good call by @Yaakov going back to 9/2.  

Even as a strong cat 1, surge will be an issue considering the angle of approach & long duration. Combine that with copious rainfall amounts & this has the potential to be a high impact event

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TD19 has had its LLC drifting to its Southwest allowing it to be south of NHC's track and possibly heading to aligning its Mid Level Center and LLC. 

 

Models are showing the biggest threat with TD19 is probably the rain NE of its track, but assuming that TD19 is probably over water now that will leave it with ~72 hours over the Gulf waters. We have seen many storms erupt over the Gulf taking a similar westerly heading over a short period of time. 

 

 

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Interesting tweet. Something to keep in mind is that the OHC on the Gulf side of Florida is kind of low (as you'll see in that twitter thread), so maybe that could be a factor in preventing RI if it moves slowly over the Gulf. However, the storm seems to be in a favorable atmospheric environment for intensification, so tonight/tomorrow should be interesting, as we'll see what factors win out. Hopefully we don't have another landfalling RI hurricane on our hands. 

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23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Even as a strong cat 1, surge will be an issue considering the angle of approach & long duration. Combine that with copious rainfall amounts & this has the potential to be a high impact event for a large portion of the Gulf coast. In addition, the ceiling is obv high for potential significant strengthening being situated in the GOM with minimal shear & weak steering currents. 

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