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CCB!, September 11 in Weather Discussion
Sep 14 2020
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Sep 11 2020
Pretty darn good call by @Yaakov going back to 9/2.
Even as a strong cat 1, surge will be an issue considering the angle of approach & long duration. Combine that with copious rainfall amounts & this has the potential to be a high impact event
11 hours ago, CCB! said:
Looking really good this morning
Hopefully the models start catching on to this wave.
This will need its own thread soon. Trouble brewing.
TD19 has had its LLC drifting to its Southwest allowing it to be south of NHC's track and possibly heading to aligning its Mid Level Center and LLC.
Models are showing the biggest threat with TD19 is probably the rain NE of its track, but assuming that TD19 is probably over water now that will leave it with ~72 hours over the Gulf waters. We have seen many storms erupt over the Gulf taking a similar westerly heading over a short period of time.
Sally is gonna be an issue. Combining slow moving storm into a vulnerable concave coastline, and surge will pile in. The earliest S name was October 2, 2005 in the form of Stan. Crushed that record
Won’t surprise me at all if Sally gets to a major hurricane at some point.
Sally unfortunately looks like she could be a big problem for the NOLA area.
Interesting tweet. Something to keep in mind is that the OHC on the Gulf side of Florida is kind of low (as you'll see in that twitter thread), so maybe that could be a factor in preventing RI if it moves slowly over the Gulf. However, the storm seems to be in a favorable atmospheric environment for intensification, so tonight/tomorrow should be interesting, as we'll see what factors win out. Hopefully we don't have another landfalling RI hurricane on our hands.
23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
Even as a strong cat 1, surge will be an issue considering the angle of approach & long duration. Combine that with copious rainfall amounts & this has the potential to be a high impact event for a large portion of the Gulf coast. In addition, the ceiling is obv high for potential significant strengthening being situated in the GOM with minimal shear & weak steering currents.
From @Logan Giles
Gfs is about 20 mb stronger than the 12z run
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