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Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution


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While there's reasonable agreement on a -AO and -NAO persisting into early January, there is some uncertainty WRT whether or not the Pacific side offers any help or not. The EPS develops a +EPO into e

I'm starting to get a little more excited for early-mid December. It looks like the Pacific jet will retract significantly, which is the real reason for the retrograding Alaskan LP. Upper level diverg

I think that we are going to see a pretty impeccable 500mb pattern after January 10th.    The -NAO originally forced by wave breaking (which is occurring in the very near future) will become

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What destroys the PAC is the retrogression in the means. 

Screenshot_20201230-175711_Chrome.jpg.2d81f1e08b9199789a591d073fd68398.jpg

 

As a massive positive rolls back towards the DL it completely overwhelms the PAC.

 

 

The improvements are a by product of the block. 

 

 

Screenshot_20201230-175702_Chrome.jpg.da79c20a5d3a1efc3b7f436fbfd206a7.jpg

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Simply put the block is such a 

Massive anomaly in the Hemisphere it gets into position by said date Jan 10.

 

And hopefully we will firing for more than 30 days. 

@Webberweather.

 

Since the models see " no snow " before the 15th let me forecast at least 4 inches of snow at KNYC between Jan 10 thru Jan 15.

 

And that's before my period.

 

So now at least we now have something to argue about. 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

As @CCB! and a few others talked about, you are starting to see the EAMT relax which will allow the pna to improve mid month. 

42A73EC0-8C60-4479-9DB3-152C673B658C.png

Correctamundo. This is what is driving the slowdown of the Pac, which in turn, allows the block to press west. Good stuff fellas.

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4 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

I still remember the days when we all thought the Atlantic was the primary driver of our Winter weather. Further from the case that could not be.

I don't know how long you have been doing this, but there was a time that the thought process was that ENSO was the only driver of winters in the Eastern US.

How did that work out?

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6 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

I still remember the days when we all thought the Atlantic was the primary driver of our Winter weather. Further from the case that could not be.

Yep. It’s.not all about pretty red colors in southeast Canada. Now a true west base block can off set a mediocre pac but not one on roids. 

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I have always been Pacific driven in my downstream ideas, however this is the only year when something so massive retrograded so forcefully coupled with a SSW lining up from 50 mbs all the way to 500 mbs that  for me it pushed the pattern in the N Hemisphere.

 

I am sure when that block goes I will be Pacific driven again. 

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