Jump to content

Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

While there's reasonable agreement on a -AO and -NAO persisting into early January, there is some uncertainty WRT whether or not the Pacific side offers any help or not. The EPS develops a +EPO into e

I'm starting to get a little more excited for early-mid December. It looks like the Pacific jet will retract significantly, which is the real reason for the retrograding Alaskan LP. Upper level diverg

I think that we are going to see a pretty impeccable 500mb pattern after January 10th.    The -NAO originally forced by wave breaking (which is occurring in the very near future) will become

Posted Images

9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) Tweeted:
GFS 12Z with a 384h banana vortex. Technical term. https://t.co/faiG16A5vI

 

This should morph into a classic - NAO east coast to Europe negative NAO after the 15th. 

 

 

Look at how fast this is.

 

This is a full week faster than I thought. 

 

Incredible.

 

Screenshot_20201231-045505_Chrome.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

Why am so early with the snow in here before others ? One because this is coming in hot ( I mean cold ).

And the models will only start seeing the colder air as we get closer. 

Jan 10th , no delays. 

 

 

Screenshot_20201231-045518_Chrome.jpg.ce298405fd75f84253dead38a07afa69.jpg

 

Two take a look at how fast we are coupling @Webberweather and @CCB! who pointed this out in here. 

 

This is the 10th - 15ths 5 day mean.

 

Screenshot_20201231-045529_Chrome.jpg.25d8364093f95b7ead0b93fa09d10c6f.jpg

 

And how are the mid level cooling as this blasts in ?

Bang, right away. 

 

Screenshot_20201231-045705_Chrome.jpg.5bea76ad862af431a40ad9ccc3f43650.jpg

 

Finally the GEFS has its 4 inch mean into NYC by the 15th. 

 

 

But the EPS now sees this over the back 7 days.

This will firm up.

 

 

Screenshot_20201231-050055_Chrome.jpg.fa275df49c33b93a6d44cd9a9a9c7849.jpg

Jan 10 is the arrival into the US, there's no delay 

Temps will be cold enough to snow between the 10th and 15th.

 

The 15th - The 15th remains the focal point with a pattern that will be conducive for snow on snow.

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20201231-045518_Chrome.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nick Psomaras said:

I mean come on now...Are we serious?

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-31 at 4.30.35 AM.png

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-31 at 4.30.28 AM.png

 

Yeh, this is the real deal 

This is anywhere from a 3 day loading pattern to the 2 week mean for snowmaggedon

 

20201219_125339.jpg

20201219_125403.jpg

Screenshot_20201231-045505_Chrome.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

This is why we're winter weather psychos...Pattern shifts like these 

 

floop-eps-2020123100.500h_anom.nh.gif

 

That's why I told @Sundog you aren't wasting anything, there's no real- NAO now.

 

There's pressure differences but it doesn't morph into a massive mature Hemisphere block until the 8th -10th and clearly beyond. 

 

That's dynamite to the atmosphere.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Webberweather said:

Weren't we supposed to be torching in this time frame?

 

Lol so much for that

 

ezgif-7-b165b60daa9e.gif.8e694c0d22fd35a474440923494c1b7b.gif

 

Toggle through the EPS 2 meter run to run change from day 8 on and you will see an unbelievable correction thru day 15.

 

Now the models see the cold air.

( and it's still not cold enough )

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Webberweather said:

Of the storms I showed in an animation yesterday, this is the most quintessential example of what many would deem a crappy/garbage N Pacific pattern coinciding w/ a historic east coast blizzard.

 

Seems like I've been beating a dead horse here but, you'll virtually always have a legit chance to get a really big storm on the I-95 corridor when there's a giant west-based -NAO involved.

 

compday.lwq9ElFspi.gif.4898bc0ed84d133d7f7e8ab14cfdd019.gif

 

19780205-19780207-5_78.jpg.bc0a9a059600f7b20f964437bdadbfef.jpg

 

Nah, you've been spot on. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

The Canadian ensembles are the coldest in the suite after the 10th and @wdrag doesn't really bite until the GEPS sees it.

 

 

Screenshot_20201231-054623_Chrome.jpg

You're correct... and also in part heading down a little closer to climo because of climo. I'll accept every threat as it's more than last winter after Dec 2 and before the spring 2020 event. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the jet now.

Screenshot_20201231-074322_Chrome.jpg.d5fc93871054415b685eb79efaefbfc5.jpg

 

Here is the jet by the ensembles for the 12th.

Notice how the dominance of the jet remains intact except for the fold near NAMER

 

Screenshot_20201231-074331_Chrome.jpg.331c06d75c4c83e553fa86e84e0f3e8f.jpg

 

If we start like this. 

Screenshot_20201231-074442_Chrome.jpg.96d48dc034179a03e00c6c1350cf97ea.jpg

 

And are like this by the 12th.

 

Screenshot_20201231-074453_Chrome.jpg.3ae8160823996f303a39f6b1a1db4feb.jpg

 

It is clear this really is a help in the change in the PAC for us.

 

This is such a Massive block it's setting up the pattern in the entire Hemisphere

 

Screenshot_20201231-045518_Chrome.jpg.c7f659f70805a5cd775edc620bf6ae32.jpg

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Here's the jet now.

Screenshot_20201231-074322_Chrome.jpg.d5fc93871054415b685eb79efaefbfc5.jpg

 

Here is the jet by the ensembles for the 12th.

Notice how the dominance of the jet remains intact except for the fold near NAMER

 

Screenshot_20201231-074331_Chrome.jpg.331c06d75c4c83e553fa86e84e0f3e8f.jpg

 

If we start like this. 

Screenshot_20201231-074442_Chrome.jpg.96d48dc034179a03e00c6c1350cf97ea.jpg

 

And are like this by the 12th.

 

Screenshot_20201231-074453_Chrome.jpg.3ae8160823996f303a39f6b1a1db4feb.jpg

 

It is clear this really is a help in the change in the PAC for us.

 

This is such a Massive block it's setting up the pattern in the entire Hemisphere

 

Screenshot_20201231-045518_Chrome.jpg.c7f659f70805a5cd775edc620bf6ae32.jpg

 

 

PB what’s your opinion on the EPO that looks like it’s starting to go in our favor I’m just a little cautious about the PNA it looks like it’s going to be hovering right around neutral maybe to the plus a little bit

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, bird said:

PB what’s your opinion on the EPO that looks like it’s starting to go in our favor I’m just a little cautious about the PNA it looks like it’s going to be hovering right around neutral maybe to the plus a little bit

 

It's a very strong 70/90 vortex and the retrograting block is going to be able to displace it enough so that we get a PNA rise.

That's a cold signal in Jan. Throw I a coupled SSW and sht that happens quick.

 

Those 2 are going to fight it out over Alaska and I think the EPO can head towards Neutral by mid month. 

 

But I don't want zero Fahrenheit here because if you kill the PAC , you're stuck waiting for crap SWs from over the pole to dive in once a week.

You may very well end up with a goldilocks pattern for a bit here.

 

A Strong enough PAC ejecting SWs into NAMER under a block where the PNA helps bring the height falls all the way up the coast and doing so under a west based block at the coldest time of the year. 

 

Everything I just wrote is what every snow lover and pattern recognition forecaster would want it or drawn up IMO.

 

Let's hope.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...