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Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution


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1 minute ago, ModRisk said:

And Forky did to me

 

I think 3/18 and 2/10 look better. 

 

I like the negative off the WC running SW trapped under the block with a jammed up Atlantic

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While there's reasonable agreement on a -AO and -NAO persisting into early January, there is some uncertainty WRT whether or not the Pacific side offers any help or not. The EPS develops a +EPO into e

I'm starting to get a little more excited for early-mid December. It looks like the Pacific jet will retract significantly, which is the real reason for the retrograding Alaskan LP. Upper level diverg

I think that we are going to see a pretty impeccable 500mb pattern after January 10th.    The -NAO originally forced by wave breaking (which is occurring in the very near future) will become

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Not that I’m forecasting this but Jan 2011 is the best match. 
 

I can find lots of analogs with west base blocks 

 

The @brooklynwx99/pb March 2018 analog looks good right now too.   Even if it doesn't produce.  

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Just now, PB GFI said:

 

I think 3/18 and 2/10 look better. 

 

I like the negative off the WC running SW trapped under the block with a jammed up Atlantic

Nothing is showing negatives off the west coast. The trough is in the west, unless that’s what you’re forecasting it to become 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Not that I’m forecasting this but Jan 2011 is the best match. 
 

I can find lots of analogs with west base blocks 

 

You don't see 3/18 - 2/10 match up there?

 

It doesn't mean you're getting 30 inches of snow in 3 weeks but those 500s with a strat warm in both years  are as close as you're going to get IMO.

 

It's why I love the period. 

 

Doesn't have to happen, but that's a smoke show waiting to happen. 

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Just now, Archerdude44 said:

May the weenie gods give us the model suite we have been waiting for tonight!

 

I'm more interested in what happens day 10+ at this point.  

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7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Nothing is showing negatives off the west coast. The trough is in the west, unless that’s what you’re forecasting it to become 

 

In 3/18 the trough was leaking on to the WC

 

image.png.75f124e5e3812701d0f188035d422dd1.png

Screenshot_20210111-165003_Chrome.jpg

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1 minute ago, ModRisk said:

 

I'm more interested in what happens day 10+ at this point.  

 

I took a 15 to 15 timeframe here.

 

I didn't even think 3/18  until Brooklyn showed us.

 

That's the same map 6 weeks earlier in the means. 

 

So I honked 

 

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EPS

 

Here is the Jan 20th - 27th mean 

 

This is where you are going to see threats come and go on op runs because that's just the nature of modeling.

 

But I am not concerned about individual dates yet I think they will show up inside this period and beyond 

 

The control run of the EPS AO/NAO go into the abyss with these 2 teleconnections.

 

 

 

image.png.8592ad64a14b2eea335b32af1f0af5c5.png

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Now you can see why the control run of the EPS  was seeing

 

This is a 13 day mean the deepening of these anomalies are rarely seen at this distance.

 

The W/E trough will set up from the 20th on and hopefully the main action can maintain itself as it gets funneled through. 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20210112-065433_Chrome.jpg.bb37f6920ce1de329b1c0d792e7e4451.jpg

 

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The EPS control also show a - 4 to -6 SD AO/NAO.

 

It's just showing you that there are members that are really robust during this period. 

Screenshot_20210112-065851_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20210112-065843_Chrome.jpg

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Back on Dec 28th I believed , 

 

By the time we get to the 20th - 30th as the pressures rise in Alaska a better - EPO takes hold and if you can hold the block through HB , you will be looking at coastals.

 

By this time you have a chance for the vortex to develop underneath.

 

1610409600-TC2QuVRBBok.png

 

 

I firmly believe the vortex will make it`s appearance either side of the 25th. 

I will take my chances that the cold bias GEFS is right here. 

 

 

1611727200-GeSkCZAMY10.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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