Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution

[Allsnow 34,849]

If that 11-15 day look happens I’d be shocked if we missed out 

[Superstorm93 22,420]

 

[Snowman11 13,824]

10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Seems like we are in an EL Nino .

[Allsnow 34,849]

@CCB!

 

 

[Dsnowx53 11,794]

Getting pretty close to cross-polar flow at the end of the EPS. Not quite there yet, but the links are being built from the Arctic through Western Greenland, into the bigger trough in the Eastern US. With an amplifying WHEM H5 pattern, this would theoretically translate to a bigger -EPO cold dump at around day 20. This is why @OHweatherhas mentioned the second or third week of December as the more exciting window, especially if we maintain the active STJ, which the EPS does show occurring.

 

 

 

Admittedly somewhat anecdotally, while the first week of December does offer potential, there is a pretty wide pendulum of solutions, and the rolled over ridges and cutoffs could either favor the SE US, or when there is a phase, you slingshot a storm inland. Timing of features will be important for supporting snow in the NE US. But I think the December 8-20 window is likely the better opportunity for SECS threats. Sometimes in the immediate pre-loading states for SSWs, the pattern can become warmer again, so that combined with perhaps a return towards a La Nina/SE ridge base state could mean a warmer close to December, before perhaps a colder start to January depending on the MJO and SSW.

[Allsnow 34,849]

8 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Getting pretty close to cross-polar flow at the end of the EPS. Not quite there yet, but the links are being built from the Arctic through Western Greenland, into the bigger trough in the Eastern US. With an amplifying WHEM H5 pattern, this would theoretically translate to a bigger -EPO cold dump at around day 20. This is why @OHweatherhas mentioned the second or third week of December as the more exciting window, especially if we maintain the active STJ, which the EPS does show occurring.

 

 

 

Admittedly somewhat anecdotally, while the first week of December does offer potential, there is a pretty wide pendulum of solutions, and the rolled over ridges and cutoffs could either favor the SE US, or when there is a phase, you slingshot a storm inland. Timing of features will be important for supporting snow in the NE US. But I think the December 8-20 window is likely the better opportunity for SECS threats. Sometimes in the immediate pre-loading states for SSWs, the pattern can become warmer again, so that combined with perhaps a return towards a La Nina/SE ridge base state could mean a warmer close to December, before perhaps a colder start to January depending on the MJO and SSW.

[PB GFI 37,674]

8 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Getting pretty close to cross-polar flow at the end of the EPS. Not quite there yet, but the links are being built from the Arctic through Western Greenland, into the bigger trough in the Eastern US. With an amplifying WHEM H5 pattern, this would theoretically translate to a bigger -EPO cold dump at around day 20. This is why @OHweatherhas mentioned the second or third week of December as the more exciting window, especially if we maintain the active STJ, which the EPS does show occurring.

 

 

 

Admittedly somewhat anecdotally, while the first week of December does offer potential, there is a pretty wide pendulum of solutions, and the rolled over ridges and cutoffs could either favor the SE US, or when there is a phase, you slingshot a storm inland. Timing of features will be important for supporting snow in the NE US. But I think the December 8-20 window is likely the better opportunity for SECS threats. Sometimes in the immediate pre-loading states for SSWs, the pattern can become warmer again, so that combined with perhaps a return towards a La Nina/SE ridge base state could mean a warmer close to December, before perhaps a colder start to January depending on the MJO and SSW.

 

 

Yeh Dough good point, look at where that air is originating out at day 15 and where it is pointed.

 

 

 

 

Just a wider view of your map

 

 

 

 

[33andrain 61,338]

[Analog96 7,572]

Just now, 33andrain said:

My eyes did get bigger looking at that map, that's for sure!

[Jake302 755]

Sorry guys. This is WeathermanB but on a new account because I couldn't remember my password/didn't write it down. 

 

Things have changed since my last visit. I'm 18 now, and I wasn't expecting an El-Nino like pattern showing up in the LR so suddenly during a moderate Nina. I ain't so sold on the beginning of the month being too good for snow/cold but I may be wrong. Have to flush out the pacific garbage first

[OHweather 2,020]

20 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Getting pretty close to cross-polar flow at the end of the EPS. Not quite there yet, but the links are being built from the Arctic through Western Greenland, into the bigger trough in the Eastern US. With an amplifying WHEM H5 pattern, this would theoretically translate to a bigger -EPO cold dump at around day 20. This is why @OHweatherhas mentioned the second or third week of December as the more exciting window, especially if we maintain the active STJ, which the EPS does show occurring.

 

 

 

Admittedly somewhat anecdotally, while the first week of December does offer potential, there is a pretty wide pendulum of solutions, and the rolled over ridges and cutoffs could either favor the SE US, or when there is a phase, you slingshot a storm inland. Timing of features will be important for supporting snow in the NE US. But I think the December 8-20 window is likely the better opportunity for SECS threats. Sometimes in the immediate pre-loading states for SSWs, the pattern can become warmer again, so that combined with perhaps a return towards a La Nina/SE ridge base state could mean a warmer close to December, before perhaps a colder start to January depending on the MJO and SSW.

I fully agree with this. I’m relatively excited for the middle two weeks of December. I think we pull back as forcing moves across the Indian Ocean again later in the month, favoring a SE ridge, but think the combination of a weaker stratospheric vortex and next MJO could bring some legitimate “goods” at some point in January. Still pretty far out but I think things might line up. 
 

This will be my third winter in NJ. Hoping it’s the best one yet...I like the early signs. 

[Analog96 7,572]

1 minute ago, Jake302 said:

Sorry guys. This is WeathermanB but on a new account because I couldn't remember my password/didn't write it down. 

 

Things have changed since my last visit. I'm 18 now, and I wasn't expecting an El-Nino like pattern showing up in the LR so suddenly during a moderate Nina. I ain't so sold on the beginning of the month being too good for snow/cold but I may be wrong. Have to flush out the pacific garbage first

Pacific garbage gets flushed out with Monday's system.

[Allsnow 34,849]

 

[Analog96 7,572]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

When you can get it to stretch and even allow pieces of it to break off, it matters less how strong it is.

The problem last year is not just that it got strong, but it went to AK, got stuck up there, and just lodged in.

It never even allowed little pieces to break off SE into Canada or the CONUS.

[33andrain 61,338]

Honestly 33andrain'ers...how great is it to see @Dsnowx53 posting again? It is so exciting to perhaps have a real December Winter around here. Seems like it has been forever. Lock and load ladies and germs! Buckle up. Winter is coming!

[Jake302 755]

5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Honestly 33andrain'ers...how great is it to see @Dsnowx53 posting again? It is so exciting to perhaps have a real December Winter around here. Seems like it has been forever. Lock and load ladies and germs! Buckle up. Winter is coming!

 

Would be very fitting for 2020 to finally have our El Nino response during a moderate la nina after waiting a few years. Delayed but not denied.

[Analog96 7,572]

5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Honestly 33andrain'ers...how great is it to see @Dsnowx53 posting again? It is so exciting to perhaps have a real December Winter around here. Seems like it has been forever. Lock and load ladies and germs! Buckle up. Winter is coming!

I think 2013 was the last good December around here...

[Analog96 7,572]

Just now, Jake302 said:

 

Would be very fitting for 2020 to finally have our El Nino response during a moderate la nina after waiting a few years. Delayed but not denied.

I think there is some component of leftover atmospheric state.

The atmosphere has been in a ESNO+ for 4out of 5 years, one of which was a super Nino.

I think that's why we're not seeing an automatic Nino response.

[Allsnow 34,849]

8 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Honestly 33andrain'ers...how great is it to see @Dsnowx53 posting again? It is so exciting to perhaps have a real December Winter around here. Seems like it has been forever. Lock and load ladies and germs! Buckle up. Winter is coming!

Just seeing a post from him brings back very happy winter weather memories. 

[Allsnow 34,849]

4 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

I think 2013 was the last good December around here...

2017 wasn’t horrible.