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The 2020 Election -- Election Day is November 3rd


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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

 

Are the 50M+ in person or absentee voting?  In NYS for example you can request an absentee ballot, fill it out and mail back, then change your mind and vote in person instead.  So you can change your vote.  That's why I am curious if these are in person or mail-in, since other states may be similar to NYS.

 

In case any is curious, here's NYS's site:

 

https://www.elections.ny.gov/votingabsentee.html

 

You Can Still Vote in Person if You Request an Absentee Ballot

Even if you request or cast and return an absentee ballot, you may still go to the polls and vote in person. The Election Law recognizes that plans change. The Board of Elections is required to check the poll book before canvassing any absentee ballot. If the voter comes to the poll site, on Election Day or during early voting and votes in person, the absentee ballot is set aside and not counted.

 

The numbers I had looked at it were a mix of early in person voting and RETURNED mail in ballots. (not requests) - Ironically NY and HI  is not included in the data at all, and that may very well be why. 85M have requested ballots. 

 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

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All those people with the "GIANT METEOR 2020" shirts are to blame.

Great moderator. Much better debate. Hate Trump. Biden is bought and paid for. Neither of these people care about you and me at all. It’s just so hard to watch. So embarrassing. 

Ready - get ready - as a lowly town councilman last year, I convinced the entire council to vote to ban any township elected official from holding any paid township position for five years from their

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4 minutes ago, fireguy286 said:

 

The numbers I had looked at it were a mix of early in person voting and RETURNED mail in ballots. (not requests) - Ironically NY and HI  is not included in the data at all, and that may very well be why. 85M have requested ballots. 

 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

 

Thanks, shows 16.2 in person & 36.3 absentee.  Wonder if other states are like NY with absentee voters being able to show up in person and change their vote, should they wish.  Doubt anyone does that though.

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8 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Thanks, shows 16.2 in person & 36.3 absentee.  Wonder if other states are like NY with absentee voters being able to show up in person and change their vote, should they wish.  Doubt anyone does that though.

Interesting, 16 states + DC will let you vote provisionally in person if you requested a mail in ballot and never returned it (few different details in the process). NY is alone in appearing to let you vote by mail, send it in, vote again on election day to change your mind. The rest - if it's received, you're done. 

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Not to stir the pot on this stuff but I’m genuinely interested objectively knowing what the deal is but...doesn’t seem to hold together. 

 

So if I’m reading this right: No deal, no money, no actual involvement? ...and this was 2017 so not in office? Where’s the fire?
 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions.amp

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11 hours ago, fireguy286 said:

Not to stir the pot on this stuff but I’m genuinely interested objectively knowing what the deal is but...doesn’t seem to hold together. 

 

So if I’m reading this right: No deal, no money, no actual involvement? ...and this was 2017 so not in office? Where’s the fire?
 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions.amp


 

There is nothing there related to Joe Biden. It’s a losing argument to try to lower his very high favorables. 

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So I read a bit about election night timelines and I’m trying to figure out what the best path to 270 is for each. Much has been written about North Carolina because they count reliably and quickly. Basically if Biden puts away NC shortly after the polls close, the polls are all right & he’ll be declared the winner at 11pm. Trump’s best path is a little murkier, because it comes through states that are slow to count. 
 

Here is the most likely path to victory for each, IMO. There aren’t any paths that result in an early election night for Trump. The blue map assumes current polling is correct. The red map assumes my Trump surge voter idea is correct. 
 


 

 

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