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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition


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Here's a nice surprise for everyone. I know we're all busy tracking the next few threats approaching, but please take a moment to welcome retired Meteorologist and NWS forecaster Walt Drag (@wdrag) to

Hello everyone and Happy New Year. I hope you're all doing well and have managed to stay safe and healthy.    Greenland is not the dividing line of a west based or east based NAO and there i

The weather models are running just as quickly and as often as they can. Outputting nothing. Outputting snow. Outputting rain. Back and forth. Life and death. Snip snap! The fingers are typing and pos

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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

YOU HAVE 10 INCHES OF SNOW MAN. 

33% OF N with 12 weeks to go.

 

You live in Brooklyn not Dover VT

I was going to say I’m at 9” in Northern MD in December which is way above average. People forget how hard it is for it to snow on the coast in December....

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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

You needed an extra day to get the front to sag S.

 

If it came on the 5th you would have snowed.

 

The waver spacing hurt us 

Exactly! I remember @Dsnowx53 was discussing the wave spacing issue all the back to last week when the GFS was slinging the NYE storm through very quickly (progressive bias) and leaving room for a coastal to take place...CMC/EURO package argued against that and soon enough the GFS followed. This favored New England from the start

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

YOU HAVE 10 INCHES OF SNOW MAN. 

33% OF N with 12 weeks to go.

 

You live in Brooklyn not Dover VT

PB I am confident we will be buried in Monmouth wir

thin the next month.

 

ha

 

Happy New Year big guy!

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There was never supposed to be  a snowstorm before the 10th.

 

The 5th was seen as the only chance in the middle of a period where its suppose to be plus 8 for 10 days. 

 

Guys didn't see that until 3 days ago

That idea was out for 7 days.

 

Not sure why we are talking about the front 10 days. The arguments have been from the 10th on.

 

I  am happy people now see it too 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

There is not enough cold air around.  The coast already had 4 coastal and 3 were rain but its way too early.

 

 

 

That happens when the trough was forecast to go back into  Alaska on December 20th from back in early December.

The trough gets kicked out by Jan 10th

 

So don't worry that will not happen after that.

This period was expected

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The SE bias in this thing is going on 20 years. 

At least it is a usable correctable bias. Better than, say, the icon, where you don't even know what the bias is.

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Just now, djdude2122 said:

Pardon me for asking but if the 540 line is south of you, shouldnt everything above it be snow??  Cause the gfs in that animation shows rain above the 540 line...

The 540 line is a very crude approximation. You're better off using 850 temps. That said, some of that could be snow. Because that algorithm shows anything that falls at 33 degrees at the surface to be rain.

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