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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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1 minute ago, SnowBoy said:

It’s a shame schools are online now or else this would make me even more excited 😝

If those winds verify with the snow, a lot of people are gonna be out of power.  My school said if a good percentage of people are out of power it is a snow day.

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7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I am much more comfortable now.

One more confluence tick and the 10 inch mean will run up I95 


you will be fine, I don’t see any flaws in the setup 

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7 minutes ago, CooL said:


you will be fine, I don’t see any flaws in the setup 

 

The late in the game jump N gave me fits this morning because I kept saying Mondays would bump N and it kept coming my way 

 

But in fact the stronger that got the deeper it drew the flow south which helped depress the heights on the EC.

So the starting point is better. 

 

Now it's a matter of can the confluence hold ( if it builds more then its not even a consideration)  because even if the low kisses AC it will rain in Toms River for a while but the confluence will kick it east of AC and whole thing CCBs.

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Now I'm a little wary of sending a deterministic run of a model this early, but the change during the 00z GFS is definitely something interesting to remark on.

 

So, one big thing to watch with for this storm is... Monday's storm. That storm will be close to what will become this storm's 50/50 low and the extent of its interaction will change some things with this one.

 

During this run, the GFS caused the 50/50 low to be significantly more amped up. The more circular rather than E/W elongated low means that between this storm's upper trough and the 50/50 low, there is a bit more ridging that can form. This means there's a little bit more traffic in the western Atlantic and so Thursday's storm is a little slower. This also happens at the surface where the surface ridge becomes a little more "aggressive" in this storm's way and keeps it from moving as quickly.

 

132549195_5050lowmoreamped.gif.34d3164254e98bc1e54186f65f3ea462.gif

 

1637665342_blockinghigh.gif.e54b9c3e7a85f8b3ba6fdaf26f9288ca.gif

 

The west trend is quite clear here, where in the newest run the low jerks the low west into the coast. It seems that another effect of this is the snow part of the precip shield being a little more "clumped up" rather than mostly elongated.

 

2123492443_bigstormtrendingwest.gif.18be45802dacb6d5f56258a5d09c1262.gif

 

Why does this happen?. Well, it's because of Monday's storm. During this run in particular, the shortwave reached more NE and actually phased with the 50/50 low, which evidently had upstream consequences. Given that there has been a trend on this model for Monday's shortwave to be closer to the 50/50 low predecessor, it's very possible (imo) that we end up seeing a phase between the two (or an attempt) which could push back this storm a little bit

 

550015430_phase5050low.gif.1a021a22111123401c473731b8712cf5.gif

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  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
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