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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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Warmest frame at 0z 

Hour 78.

 

- 4 at 850

- 1 at 925

BL 34.

 

The Euro sees 34 as R, I don't, its probably sleet.

Hell you could snow through that if the rates are hard.

 

But I have said a mix all the way to JFK from the beginning and I am staying with that. 

 

By hour 80, its back to 32.

 

My rain line is a little further S 

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20201214_020649.jpg

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

And if I lose 25% to R I am fine

 

But I will show you where its prob sleet in Monmouth not R as per the Euro at hr 78.

I think we both will lose some to sleet. Our best bet if for the low to shift east .

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Warmest frame at 0z 

Hour 78.

 

- 4 at 850

- 1 at 925

BL 34.

 

The Euro sees 34 as R, I don't, its probably sleet.

Hell you could snow through that if the rates are hard.

 

But I have said a mix all the way to JFK from the beginning and I am staying with that. 

 

By hour 80, its back to 32.

 

My rain line is a little further S 

20201214_020705.jpg

20201214_020649.jpg

20201214_020634.jpg

20201214_020336.jpg

I think a good call right now would be 6-10 for the south shore of NYC. I dont see higher amounts due to mixing unless this storm shifts east.

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I think a good call right now would be 6-10 for the south shore of NYC. I dont see higher amounts due to mixing unless this storm shifts east.

It seems like you’re underestimating the cold air in place and overestimating the amount of precip that will fall as a mix.

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
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