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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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Check out where the OP was at 0z.20201214_022428.jpg.e17b2eef5eb1c478bddf7dfe04b1e4a2.jpg

Now look at the mean. 

 

 

20201214_022439.jpg.afac0ec0d94e8074e5d6a5c103fae2f4.jpg

 

Now look at now many members will not mix to JFK.

 

20201214_022520.jpg.1d9e314cf4a96eb8f6b2c18547cfd0b0.jpg

 

20 off the coast and 10 inland. 

 

66% chance the 0z solution is a bit warm for now.

 

Look at the cluster at 12z and see if we can improve our odds.

 

But as I suspected the OP was one of the further W members and it still gave me 10.

 

Now let's hold this here pls.

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The real screw zone in this is Toms River on South where its almost all rain. 

NE winds into Monmouth County have the benefit of crossing Long Island coming down off SNE.

 

The reason you see the natural cut off down in Brick and Toms River is because even their NE flow comes off the Atlantic , so in December, its akin to an east wind in January.

In this case the coast front torches them.

 

I hope those guys could eek a few inches out, I am in the Euro camp and think the GFS will adjust N

 

The Euro is mixing to JFK now and that's what I argued about in here 2 days ago. 

 

A 50 mile east OP adjustment would be nice, 20 of the 30 members have it.

I would like that increase at 12z.

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Just now, PB GFI said:

The real screw zone in this is Toms River on South where its almost all rain. 

NE winds into Monmouth County have the benefit of having cross Long Island coming down off SNE.

 

The reason you see the natural cut off down in Brick and Toms River is because their flow comes off the Atlantic , so in December, its akin to an east wind in January.

 

I hope those guys could eek a few inches out, I am in the Euro camp and think the GFS will adjust N

 

The Euro is mixing to JFK now and that's what I argued about in 2 days ago. 

 

A 50 mile east OP adjustment would be nice, 20 of the 30 members have it.

I would like that increase at 12z.

Do you think Morris county is going to be in the jackpot zone?

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29 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Warmest frame at 0z 

Hour 78.

 

- 4 at 850

- 1 at 925

BL 34.

 

The Euro sees 34 as R, I don't, its probably sleet.

Hell you could snow through that if the rates are hard.

 

But I have said a mix all the way to JFK from the beginning and I am staying with that. 

 

By hour 80, its back to 32.

 

My rain line is a little further S 

20201214_020705.jpg

20201214_020649.jpg

20201214_020634.jpg

20201214_020336.jpg

 

Unless I missed it, if you don't have a warm layer aloft, how are you getting sleet with temps below 32F in the column down to 925 or so and then 34F at the surface?  Seems like either snow or rain.  

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11 minutes ago, WxLover said:

Do you think Morris county is going to be in the jackpot zone?

 

NEPA into NWNJ.

Sussex.

I think you will do really well here .

Congrats.

 

The low getting to the DE bay coast will lay the 700 fronto right up the coast and the best forcing is W of the coastal plain.

 

The coast has 2 issues, the initial BL before SLP heads east and the light rates as they sink until they can rise again 

 

But if I rain and sleet for hours and then go bang and flip get 10 with 65 mph wind gusts I will consider that a great storm.

 

Unfortunately the 15 to 25 inch amounts will be no where near me in N Monmouth 

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8 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

 

Unless I missed it, if you don't have a warm layer aloft, how are you getting sleet with temps below 32F in the column down to 925 or so and then 34F at the surface?  Seems like either snow or rain.  

 

Not sure if there's a warm nose, I didn't see the skew.

I only pulled those 2.

 

-4 - 1  and heavy rates at 34 i would snow , if I sink its light rain.

I am assuming a warm nose somewhere due to the coastal front

 

I am assuming 33% of my 2 inches of liquid are lost at the beginning.

 

I mean I guess I could get away with 50% but I really don't want to 😀

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
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