hot December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread

[amonte1219 278]

2'-3' in the PHL-NYC corridor wow, though id say that scenario has the same likelihood as the 6z nam

[WxLover 2,612]

GFS!!!!!!!!

[Jake Stofman 2,279]

GFS definitely took a step towards the euro here by backing the flow and not letting so much energy escape. It’s a better look for many. 

[bird 677]

Just put it in perspective how bad the Nam is On Saturday it was predicting for me to have 6 inches of snow today  

[33andrain 65,031]

6z RGEM

[33andrain 65,031]

6z GFS

[PB GFI 42,858]

Ignore the NAM the storm is not moving to Brooklyn.

No use looking at it.

 

RGEM / GFS / EUR0 all lpok great 

[33andrain 65,031]

1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

6z GFS

 

[PB GFI 42,858]

1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

6z GFS

 

It has printed out 15 inches 3 runs in a row here. 

[33andrain 65,031]

5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

6z RGEM

6z RGEM

[33andrain 65,031]

3z SREFs... as useless as they are ... the ARWs look like the NAM and the NMBs look like the rest of the guidance. 

[Superstorm93 24,592]

6z NBM 

 

Really not much change since yesterday 

 

 

[33andrain 65,031]

29,000 page views yesterday. Let’s cross 30,000 today!!

[SHARPCUTOFF 135]

11 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

6z GFS

omg talk about a sharp cutoff in the hudson valley

[Thundersnow3765 2,669]

10 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

6z RGEM

Woah. NAM and RGEM on the opposite extremes.

[Rtd208 3,556]

Today's 12z runs should be interesting to say the least. 

[Rtd208 3,556]

Mt. Holly pulled the trigger pretty early on Winter Storm Watches. Upton still has nothing issued. 

[Superstorm93 24,592]

Vortmax should be crossing over Vegas in a few hours here now. 

 

Really interested to see if we continue to observe any ticks N today 

 

 

[Thundersnow3765 2,669]

Looks like a classic tale of two biases here. The GFS progressive bias, and the NAM amplified bias.
 

At hour 54, the GFS has the s/w holding a positive tilt.

 

Meanwhile, the NAM 06z already has the s/w taking on a slight negative tilt. This begins to pump heights out ahead of it and results in a more northerly track in the end.

 

I'd like to see this iron itself out today, but I'm thinking we end with a compromise between these two models that looks more like the euro or cmc.

[NJwxguy78 26,625]

3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

There's a reason why Sparta averages more snow than Colts Neck.

 

This storm will be a prime example.

 

 

I don’t know.  I’d say 6-12” between my house and yours, with someone getting 18 depending on banding and feel good about that forecast. 
 

No clue who gets the 6 and who gets the 18.