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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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Looks like a classic tale of two biases here. The GFS progressive bias, and the NAM amplified bias.
 

At hour 54, the GFS has the s/w holding a positive tilt.

Inkedgfs_z500_vort_us_10_LI.jpg.0167c610ba1c6c256ca24df90cfa9f9a.jpg

 

Meanwhile, the NAM 06z already has the s/w taking on a slight negative tilt. This begins to pump heights out ahead of it and results in a more northerly track in the end.

Inkednamconus_z500_vort_us_44_LI.jpg.caf130e8149f1a2a799b064c36403ac1.jpg

 

I'd like to see this iron itself out today, but I'm thinking we end with a compromise between these two models that looks more like the euro or cmc.

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

There's a reason why Sparta averages more snow than Colts Neck.

 

This storm will be a prime example.

 

 


I don’t know.  I’d say 6-12” between my house and yours, with someone getting 18 depending on banding and feel good about that forecast. 
 

No clue who gets the 6 and who gets the 18.

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
  • 33andrain unpinned this topic

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