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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

The real screw zone in this is Toms River on South where its almost all rain. 

NE winds into Monmouth County have the benefit of crossing Long Island coming down off SNE.

 

The reason you see the natural cut off down in Brick and Toms River is because even their NE flow comes off the Atlantic , so in December, its akin to an east wind in January.

In this case the coast front torches them.

 

I hope those guys could eek a few inches out, I am in the Euro camp and think the GFS will adjust N

 

The Euro is mixing to JFK now and that's what I argued about in here 2 days ago. 

 

A 50 mile east OP adjustment would be nice, 20 of the 30 members have it.

I would like that increase at 12z.

I remember you argued the mixing and people were not having it.

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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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While the NAM at 75 is “special” there is still room for wiggles North.  The High is so anomalous that getting its strength, position and movement right is crucial.  As a fringe tracker and observer here, the NAM woke me up and, coupled with the N movement of the EPS and Euro, reminded me of a couple of big ones. This is nearly the exact timeframe that the NAM blasted your area (mine too at the time) and remarkable held steady and the other models came to it in January 2016. I know, I know, blind squirrels and nuts. But March 2017 was another where folks discounted the extent of the northern movement and sleet making it all the way to an elated @NJwxguy78

 

I still love where most of you are right now and excitement is warranted. But there is ALWAYS heartbreak and elation with these storms starting at about 48 hours to the storms onset. Temper enthusiasm and enjoy the ride. It’s all part of the story that each “big one” has. Frankly, even if this comes north I can’t really count on too much - so I would prefer to see the RGEM be right and folks closer to the coast and city get the MAX. So if, conversely, a SE push happens at this point it only helps those who need it most. You all deserve it and we always get ours up here. The lakes are on FIRE for this time of year and we may see feet on feet of snow in January. 
 

Good luck and happy tracking today!!!

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3am update, Mt Holly doubles down for the N&W burbs.




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-142130-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1200Z-201217T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 12 inches possible

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and/or
  Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Heavy Snow could result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

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Just now, NJwxguy78 said:

3am update, Mt Holly doubles down for the N&W burbs.




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-142130-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.201216T1200Z-201217T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
308 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 12 inches possible

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and/or
  Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Heavy Snow could result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

Yeah. I miss my old house in Byram this week. Happy for you old neighbor.  

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7 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Smart decision by Upton.

I agree. I think Mt. Holly was to early on issuing watches especially since there is still a decent amount of uncertainty. 

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Just now, MesoBanding said:

Yeah. I miss my old house in Byram this week. Happy for you old neighbor.  


Thanks, but I have chickens now. That means I need to go outside every couple of hours and clear off the damn chicken run to keep the hens happy. Wtf. How did I end up with chickens? I’m not even here half the year.

 

(I’ll move myself to banter shortly).

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18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Vortmax should be crossing over Vegas in a few hours here now. 

 

Really interested to see if we continue to observe any ticks N today 

 

 

rapwvvor.20201214.09.gif


That’s a very pregnant map.

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2 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


Thanks, but I have chickens now. That means I need to go outside every couple of hours and clear off the damn chicken run to keep the hens happy. Wtf. How did I end up with chickens? I’m not even here half the year.

 

(I’ll move myself to banter shortly).

Well, given the guidance zeroing in on NW NJ as a bullseye, this is one time you CAN count your chickens before they hatch. 

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20 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:


I don’t know.  I’d say 6-12” between my house and yours, with someone getting 18 depending on banding and feel good about that forecast. 
 

No clue who gets the 6 and who gets the 18.

It’s called elevation

im in Warren co we get slammed usually.!!!👍

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Here is the way I look at it. If the storm continues to trend north and I go from expecting 18" down to 8" it will still be the biggest snowfall I have seen in the last few years. 

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3 minutes ago, Winterbird said:

It’s called elevation

im in Warren co we get slammed usually.!!!👍


Warren & Sussex certainly do get elevation dependent events at times when it’s raining in the rest of the state. But both counties are always on the fringe in storms like these. That’s a really strong high to our north and that’s a ton of cold, dry air funneling past our noses. Need to see what the @MesoBanding models say as we get closer. 

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
  • 33andrain unpinned this topic

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