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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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I’ve seen these situations before, and I think regardless of where the actual sfc low and mid levels will track, the front end will overperform with overrunning. We are crashing a ton of moisture into a 1040 mb high, and there will be lots of precip along the warm front. I don’t see a reason why the front end won’t thump I-95 and points NW.

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Do NOT know if this was posted but the GEFS did not cave as hard as the OP - mean shifted North yes but not as drastic - could be S members skewing this still looks good here. Time will tell.

 

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Just now, wxmd529 said:

Fugly. Only piece of good news if there is any there is that if this was just an over correction would only take a slight tick SE to be back in business for many 

A foot is like 5 miles from me.

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5 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

Fugly. Only piece of good news if there is any there is that if this was just an over correction would only take a slight tick SE to be back in business for many 

Yeah. We will have 24-32 hours left of corrections. That being said, hopefully we can grab 3-6 along the coast. That will be the best December event in years. This won’t be the last System we track as the long range looks good imo 

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If the NW tracks do verify to be true though don’t be shocked if you get 3 or so inches of snow and then pound sleet for a while near the coattails. Could be some sneaky warm layers in there with everything tracking so close. We’ve seen it time abs again. The dry airmass could also help the thump. 

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3 minutes ago, WxLover said:

Euro run should hopefully makes things a little clearer.

With the UKIE looking like that, I don't expect the EURO to look much different from the consensus down below with LP track.

 

12z4.png.ddd6b399281a0254ea3ec46929ac6fe

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Just now, CCB! said:

Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reasoning other than "it always does this, happens every time... so see, i knew it" then you should consider reigning in those types of sentiments. 

 

There's always going to be a degree of weenie-ism on wx forums, it's what we live for. But this particular core group is objective. There were no snow blinders on... I for one have been attacked when I don't expect a system to dump snow for days, or when I don't like the pattern. It is what it is. I gave my reasoning as to why I figured this would be less amplified & have led to some of the earlier modeled solutions & it looks like I'll be incorrect with the axis of heaviest snow. But we still need to see how it all shakes out. Many others on here did the same thing, spending days trying to figure out the eventual evolution providing fantastic, granular reasoning & discussion as to why. All I'm saying is, don't sully that work that was volunteered here & assign labels if you just want to play contrarian. It's just weather after all. Thanks & back to the show.



👏 

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14 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

With the UKIE looking like that, I don't expect the EURO to look much different from the consensus down below with LP track.

 

12z4.png.ddd6b399281a0254ea3ec46929ac6fe

 

Kudos on the overlay, nice work. 

 

The question still is when does the storm "feel' the press, and how does that impact the mid level vorts.

 

Yes trends went NW - but we still have a relatively strong chance at 3-6" across a good portion of the area, with some lollipop higher amounts.  

 

And again, I think this gives credence to the lack of sampled data with the incredible changes still occurring on the models. 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jake Stofman said:

Really gotta start talking about this more. Places are going to thump for hours and thump hard at 1-2 inches per hour. I expect very little virga with this and it goes straight to heavy precip 

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Yes. And with the high over the top we should be able to hold the mix line pretty far south for a while, IMO. Even the most disastrous models are missing the thump potential I believe. 

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
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