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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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A heavenly couple of hours resulted in 4.5 in . Rest of storm was sleet.

Well done NAM on the warm nose idea but no model predicted that NYC would be 4-8 in. Sadly,  an underperformed but , big picture we got more in 1 storm than avg monthly snowfall in December & more than last winter combined. 

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Collingswood NJ....

 

Flurries, dropped to 23 degrees here in the last hour!!! Was only forecast to be a low of 29!

 

Wish this cold came earlier when there was that big blob of rain here...

 

The roads out there must be treacherous!!! The street im on looks like an ice rink!

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Sleet mixed with a little rain rn, current temp is 34.5 but when we refreeze here in sw suffolk, roads are probably going to get pretty bad, especially the side streets. It was lightly snowing the past couple hours, but any accumulation is probably less than a tenth of an inch

 

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5 hours ago, ru848789 said:

Things slowed down a lot here.  Only up to 6" with only 1/4" the last 2 hours, due to lack of precip and sleet; up to 27F.  

 

So after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy.

Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had.

And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter although maybe it's not quite done there yet. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30").

Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once...

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2 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

 

So after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy.

Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had.

And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter although maybe it's not quite done there yet. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30").

Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once...

The Park should be at about 8” or so since that measurement was at 1am

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39 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The Park should be at about 8” or so since that measurement was at 1am

The models who had more accumulating snow overnight were right  

 

All in all , not a bad storm considering the track of the storm. No one should be complaining. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

The models who had more accumulating snow overnight were right  

 

All in all , not a bad storm considering the track of the storm. No one should be complaining. 

Yeah think I got about 8-9” here

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