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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I saw some of the pix the past two pages - pretty cool. Unsure if this was posted already...if so please remove. Here is a visual multiplatform analysis of snow for this 18-24 hour nor'easter. 

 

By the way: is there a preliminary NESIS analysis available? 

Screen Shot 2020-12-18 at 8.57.09 AM.png


I haven’t seen the prelim NESIS analysis for this yet - thought it might be out today. I’ll keep my eyes peeled.

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On 12/16/2020 at 7:29 AM, Allsnow said:

Final call

 

Knyc 6-12

Kewr 6-12

Kjfk 4-8

Klga 6-12

 

IMBY 6-10

@33andrain6-12

@CCB! 6-12

@NJwxguy78 12-18

@Superstorm93 8-12

@ModRisk 5-8

 

KPhl 4.2

Sharp gradient in Monmouth county. 1-3 south and 3-6 north 

Not a bad call. 
 

Knyc 10.5

kewr 11.4

klga 10.1

kjfk 7.2 
phl 6.6

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Overall impact maximized nw of I84 where you're seeing a top 20 event historically. 

 

Amazing how locked in some of these events in Nov - Dec have been, 7-11 days in advance. That is all the worlds modelers improving physics via research-more observation platforms contributing (satellite, radar, aircraft etc) and computers. The oldsters among us  know. 

 

NESIS prelim MAY??? be available early next week. 

 

This graphic below from the WPC web site.  

Screen Shot 2020-12-18 at 12.15.39 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Overall impact maximized nw of I84 where you're seeing a top 20 event historically. 

 

Amazing how locked in some of these events in Nov - Dec have been, 7-11 days in advance. That is all the worlds modelers improving physics via research-more observation platforms contributing (satellite, radar, aircraft etc) and computers. The oldsters among us  know. 

 

NESIS prelim MAY??? be available early next week. 

 

This graphic below from the WPC web site.  

Screen Shot 2020-12-18 at 12.15.39 PM.png


Thanks Walt! That 44” is incredible. Watching the LE amounts, have to wonder if there’s a 50” hiding in a remote area. Just incredible. 

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8 hours ago, Analog96 said:

Has to be a high end 3 or low end 4 at least, based on the widespread nature of snowfall.

Guessing 3, since not enough population hit with 10" or more, although NYC and Boston both being above 10" helps and Philly more than 4" helps, but DC/Balt being less than 4" hurts.  

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  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
1 minute ago, Newman said:

According to the NESIS page, the storm has come in at 43rd on the list and is ranked as a 2

43  2020-12-14 2020-12-18 3.21 2

Significant

 

20201214-20201218-3.21.jpg

 

Lower than I would have ranked it, but they put more emphasis on the big cities than I do.

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