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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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6 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

The other models had the same track and it showed snow over the area.

 

Let's hope the Euro comes to the GEFS.

I have a hard time believing the ensemble would head S if the trend was N

 

The lobe got sampled by RAOBS if the Euro is to go S it would be this run. 

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Looking at CIPS analogs for this storm. One stands out pretty well. Dec. 2003. 500mb looks similar and snow map does not look bad at all for I-95 folk N of Philly.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/RTIME/2020121312/F084/EC_084/gfs215_4pSYN1b_F084.pngimage.png.5e0807a5517a900e9802d05b06169c32.pngimage.png.26c32f314ce28227045dfa28b1b071dd.pnghttp://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/24HR/2003/20031206_024_total.png

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43 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It'll be curious to see which one blinks first...

 

EPS 6in.png

GEFS 6in.png

 

We know what may cause changes: The confluence / high pressure ahead of the storm, and associated cold air damming should limit how warm this storm can get unless it trends weaker, and will still influence the northern extent somewhere in Upstate NY or New England. The trough with the storm itself can still trend more or less amped, which can still result in a more Euro-like solution if it's amped enough. Also need to watch the interaction between our storm and the shortwave behind it, as they're close enough to each other to potentially have an influence. 

 

EPS 78.png

 

I'm guessing the GFS is too far south and the Euro is a bit too amped...but to what extent each corrects is uncertain. Either way, Philly, Baltimore and DC all will probably be on the gradient in snow totals, but seem quite likely to get a fair amount of wintry precip. How much is snow and how much is a sloppy mix is very up in the air though. I still think NYC is mainly or all snow and is on the snowier side of the gradient. 

 

We'll see if either the GFS and Euro blink today! 

Based on models and track I expect NYC & Li to mix and possibly rain 

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
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