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December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread


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Little note... If you're going to try to take a dump on the people that have tried to forecast this system who have provided their reasoning for days on end, just don't. If you didn't provide any reas

One thing I've begun to notice is the upstream LW trough, which will likely be a key component to how the downstream height response (e.g. Intermountain west ridge --> impacts ultimate s/w trough a

Hey guys, I know this might be slightly off topic (and slightly on topic as well) but I just wanted to announce that I DID infact pass my Dynamics 1 course! It’s been a stressful past two weeks for me

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2 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

Here are my early thoughts for the upcoming storm. Feedback and different opinions are welcomed 

snowfall map first thoughts DONE.png


Nice map -

 

I would just caution that as others have said, the gradient will be tight.  I would be very careful with the big amounts over 6”until we are within 48 hrs

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3 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

Here are my early thoughts for the upcoming storm. Feedback and different opinions are welcomed 

snowfall map first thoughts DONE.png

You are too far north with the northern extent of your expected precip shield.

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13 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

Here are my early thoughts for the upcoming storm. Feedback and different opinions are welcomed 

snowfall map first thoughts DONE.png

Decent map. A north trend in these upcoming days would lead to those heavy amounts in Central CT

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19 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

Here are my early thoughts for the upcoming storm. Feedback and different opinions are welcomed 

snowfall map first thoughts DONE.png

Looks decent.  Matches most of the current guidance well.  

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41 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Eerily similar setup to the Presidents Day blizzard of 2003. Miller B track from NC, just east of Cape May and eventually southeast of benchmark...Continental similar  too with a 1040 HP in Quebec and sub 960 lp south of Greenland (ours is even more favorable)...Just food for thought, happy tracking

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-13 at 5.44.19 PM.png

HP further south I remember this storm incredible 2’ amounts wide spread 

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1 hour ago, RAllen964 said:

Per 18z GFS - 30/40mph gusts. 

 

Gotta believe though that's gonna end up a little low based on thermal gradient. (I am assuming 50-55 in gusts) 

 For where? The coast will gust 50+

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  • Superstorm93 changed the title to Dec 16-18: Major EC Storm Obs & Model Thread
  • 33andrain changed the title to December 16-18, 2020 -- SECS/MECS Mega Thread
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