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Reposted From 2019:

 

I believe it has been more than half a decade since @earthlight brilliantly composed "A Day in the Life of a Forum."  It was so good that I saved it.  Of course, in those days, it wasn't this forum, and some of the actors have changed, but I thought it might be time for an update. I have left some of @earthlight's absolute best lines untouched.    Enjoy!

 

6:30am: I wake up to 12 angry PM's from people upset about warmth vs cold and mod previews.  Ten are in British and I can't understand them. Two are from @Snowman11 asking why he can't post.

7:00am: Someone whines about seeing a whole bunch of borderline x-rated ads.  We have to gently remind them that the ads they see are based on their preferences and browsing history, not ours.

8:00am: People are still posting about last nights 00z models which were great... @ru848789 is asking about the algorithms on snow maps and why they can't be consistent.

8:10am: @PB GFI posts a rally monkey picture in the technical Long-Range thread. I immediately get seven texts from @33andrain guaranteeing me five feet of snow.

8:15am: @donsutherland1 rounds up the record highs from the previous day. @Allsnow makes 20 solid posts that are quickly buried by weenie snowmaps.

8:35am: @Psv logs in to complain about ads.

8:36am: @33andrain is texting me old NAM images that are also being posted in five forums and on twitter.  Guarantees the entire NYC metro area will see minimum 24" of snow in 6 days.  Asks me why the rest of the staff isn't excited.

8:45am: NAM starts. @Analog96 posts about how you can already see the CAD signature showing up, much different than the last run.  @Henry thinks he's getting six feet of snow in New England, but asks if we think it'll be closer to 71" or 73".

8:46am: I look at the NAM. It is literally the same down to every intricate detail.

9:20am: NAM is now out to hour 12. @PB GFI makes a perfectly reasonable post about where we are going.

9:21am: Someone posts about how the ICON and JMA were huge hits.  @Dsnowx53 makes a reasonable post about everything and it is quickly buried.

9:22am: @ru848789still arguing about snowmap algorithms.  @uncle w posts stats from 1947.

9:23am: @MesoBanding reminds everyone about "the guidelines."  Says things are "weast, right on track."

9:24am: @CCB! posts a screenshot of a great tweet that he just shared which effortlessly explains 6,587 data points but nobody in forum will read it because @Snowman11 just posted a NAM snowmap.  I quickly retweet it from 33's tweeter.

9:26am: NAM now looks significantly worse. Everything is de-amplified. It has a twelve 960mb lows on an area of thunderstorms in Florida. @PB GFI posts about how the NAM is notorious for this, and he called it. 

9:27am: @Superstorm93 logs in and logs out.  Texts the rest of the staff a quick piece of brilliance and we wonder if he will return.

9:30am: NAM now shows 0.05" QPF for NYC. I post it.

9:32am: @Colin says all is going as he expected.

9:40am: @snywx says the NAM has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows. 

9:50am: A lull period. People analyze NAM soundings even though they don't show any precip. @brooklynwx99 posts a brilliant round up of model analyses.

10:00am: @ModRisk posts the super secret high resolution RGEM graphics that nobody except for him and tmagan can find, which are also a huge whiff.

10:15am: @Snowman11 posts the rest of the NAM clown maps which show 19" for the middle of the ocean.

10:21am: @antmasiello_HM makes a great thread about the medium range and talks about the solar activity and blocking. @Snowman11 is the first to reply within 3 seconds and says "great write up".

10:30am: GFS starts

10:32am: GFS immediately looks worse. People are panicking. @NorEaster27 says he was right. @33andrain now has 50 posts. 

10:35am: GFS is out to hour 60. @ChineseFood4Snow has already posted the snowmaps to our facebook page, and now we have 50 soccer moms and dads logging in to see if little junior's game will be cancelled.

10:38am: GFS is now out to sea.

10:39am: GFS shows precip over our area in response to the upper level low. @Snowman11 posts about it. Says "GFS shows flakes from ULL"

10:39:30am: @Henrysays the GFS has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

10:40am: @Superstorm93 posts every radar and satellite image imaginable and available on the entire internet in a tracking thread.

11:00am: HPC releases their morning discussion. They say that the storm is going to come inland. Nobody knows what is going on.

11:25am: GFS shows a HECS at hour 240. @ModRisk posts large images of all four panels as shared on other forums. I want to fork my eyes out.

11:45am: GGEM is now running.

11:50am: Nobody can find the GGEM.

11:55am: @DualJet says the NOGAPS is inland and warns everybody that it is a good model and we should be careful and talks about red flags or something. Also says it's ensembles are inland too.

12:00pm: Ukie is out to hour 72. Looks like the GFS. Nobody knows what it actually shows though, because it only runs at 6, 12, 72 and 240 hours and shows no precip data. I start wondering what that model is really worth.

12:15pm: GGEM now shows a 957mb low over Cleveland with +18 850mb temperatures over NYC.

12:15:30am: @Psv says the GGEM is colder for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

12:16pm: @Colin says that this solution is viable and long island climo is very very bad for snow.

12:16pm: @NorEaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely on the front end and then a transition to rain like climo would suggest.

12:18pm: Somebody comes in and posts that that was the old run of the GGEM and the new run actually shows 200mm of snow for PHL and NYC.

12:19pm: Everybody is insanely happy.

12:20pm: @OHweather tells that poster to clear their cache and the new run is actually over Cleveland.

12:21pm: Everybody is pissed.

12:22pm: @NorEaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely and that climo suggests the storm won't bring snow to our area.

12:25pm: @Dsnowx53 makes a good post with solid reasoning and quality images which gets buried instantly(again).

12:30pm: Millions of young kids start posting terrible analysis and models with awful graphics that nobody can understand. There are also 500 posts talking about Henry M.s forecast and JB's big dog winter weather discussion.

12:45pm: Euro has initialized. @Weathergun makes a solid post with facts and data that gets buried quickly.

12:46pm: People are already asking how much QPF euro gives them.

12:48pm: @Snowman11 posts GFS ensembles which show no surface reflection.

12:50pm: Euro is out to hour 12 and looks terrible.

12:55pm: Euro is going east. 8 different people post intricate QPF data for every station on the east coast.

1:05pm: Euro has the storm, just barely out to sea.

1:07pm: @MesoBanding says it's still good because it's a graze and "that's where we want to be at this range"- "according to the guidelines."

1:08pm: That one guy from Baltimore comes in and asks how much QPF it gives Baltimore.

1:30pm: Another weenie hour begins. With no models for the next few hours, most people don't even bother posting.

2:30pm: Euro ensembles are posted. Shockingly, they look exactly like the Operational down to the exact intricate detail. @33andrain  posts about how reliable the Euro Ensembles are. 

2:35pm: @MJOP8 posts the ensembles 10 minutes earlier than everybody else. Says they moved south and east.

2:45pm: Everybody else sees them and says they got a little worse. @amugs says Jim Witt said it will snow.

2:50pm: @Nchaboy asks if we should wait for the individuals because some members always skew the mean

2:55pm: NAM is running.

2:57pm: @Colin says this storm is boring because it isn't a 970mb bomb off the NJ Coast.

3:10pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

3:15pm: NAM looks more amplified.

3:20pm: @Webberweather makes some highly technical post about something that three people can understand. 

3:25pm: NAM is going nuts. Has a huge bomb off the coast. @33andrain has to fill out a support ticket because the forum keeps crashing.

3:26pm: Twelve people post mother of god images. @thatJohann logs in to ask if NYC will rain

3:27pm: Everybody posts the same image from different sources (NCEP, PSU, etc). Fifty posts per minute are being moved to banter, including multiple "Why was my post deleted" posts.

3:28pm: NAM shows an inverted trough developing over the coastal low and gives NYC 3.5" QPF.

3:30pm: @33andrain says this could be a historic storm for Long Island.

3:35pm: @CCB! says look at 925mb warm layer. It shows sleet for everybody.

3:40pm: @ModRisk posts the 18z RGEM which now shows tons of QPF as rain in NYC. Everybody ignores it because it's bad.

3:50pm: Everybody posts soundings and posts their opinion on what the soundings say, most of them are wrong.

3:52pm: The "dynamic cooling" talk begins. I log off.

4:30pm: The thread is growing at 100 posts per minute. The staff have all logged off and given up.

4:35pm: GFS is out. Everybody says they think it looks more amplified.

4:45pm: GFS is still out to sea by 300 miles.

5:54pm: Uptons discussion is out. They say the storm might go out to sea but might come inland. Might be rain,might be snow. Might be warm, might be cold. Might issue watches, might not.

5:56pm: @Snowman11 posts the Upton snowfall map 10 times.

6:00pm: Awful weenie hour. With no models until 8:45, the next two and a half hours are spent analyzing old model runs and looking at data which is completely irrelevant.

8:45pm: NAM starts.

9:50pm: 12z Ukie is still out to hour 72.

9:15pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

9:20pm: NAM is going south and east again. Has 15 960mb lows on a line of convection over Tampa, FL.

9:25pm: Everybody says it's convective feedback..even though nobody truly knows what that is.

 

10:15pm:  I text @33andrain because I notice he hasn't logged in for the past hour.

 

5:15a.m.:  Receive text back from @33andrain telling me to wake up and log in because there are 12 angry PM's.

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Hey guys.  I live in a different corner of the world than nearly all of you - Israel.  I'm part of the forum as I grew up in the northeast US (Long Island) and still keep up with the weather there at

there’s only so much tracking we can do before we get yelled at by our spouses for neglecting our kids.   replace any of the nouns with school/work/chores and I think it works for most. lol 

I feel like an ass now, cause I ended up getting 11.5 inches of snow, not counting some of the compacting that occurred in-between Sunday night's snowfall and Monday afternoon's changing back over to

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, Thundersnow3765 said:

The stronger Monday storm only helps to build a stronger 50/50 low. The trend in Monday's storm has actually been the same reason the ceiling for Wednesday has been going up as I see it. The stronger 50/50 low is increasing confluence and strengthening the high over SE Canada.

Agree there - just waiting for the shoes to drop. 🧐

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Just now, user13 said:

It isn't a snow storm without the model shuffle. I honestly can't ever remebet a storm where there weren't off model runs. Trends are what matter. If we start seeing more of this over the 18 hours, then its an issue

 

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