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December 24-25, 2020 -- High-Impact Weather Event


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Unless we get temps into the 60s, we will be inverted.  You are seeing the LLJ strength on top of the inversion, the inversion would act to strength the jet, that’s what we are seeing on the models as the inversion trends more stout.  Best chance is your climo areas, immediate coast and the island

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Good Thursday morning everyone,  Just a quick cut and paste edit.   HIGH IMPACT wind damage and flood potential event by this time Christmas morning. Strongest winds in NJ/ne PA/se NYS rough

Here are some NAM forecast soundings for this upcoming event, compared to some soundings for April 13th of this year, when parts of the NJ shore gusted over 70 and 50+ gusts occurred all the way to Sc

12/24-25:  I think the wind damage potential is the largest threat from this rapidly deepening 980s surface low moving northward up the front into NYS predawn Christmas. SVR's possible (in my mind lik

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1 minute ago, NorEaster27 said:

Unless we get temps into the 60s, we will be inverted.  You are seeing the LLJ strength on top of the inversion, the inversion would act to strength the jet, that’s what we are seeing on the models as the inversion trends more stout.  Best chance is your climo areas, immediate coast and the island

There will be a degree of inversion, just not convinced it'll be terribly strong right now as the pack dwindles this week. Though agree for the climo areas.

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

 

Not usually to the extent the models like to portray in their output. 


yes, you knock off a few mph. Generally, we haven’t had a wind event bust in a very long time. The warm ocean waters kill any inversion later in the year. Different story further west 

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7 minutes ago, WxLover said:

Wowzers

ecmwf_full_2020122212_066_40.75--74.75.png

1608897600-6oEqgc8gfXA.png

If there’s going to be any kind of significant thermal inversion, I definitely don’t see it on any of these soundings. Then again, I’m not too familiar with if inversions are usually well modeled with these kinds of synoptic events at this lead time, so maybe somebody else can touch up on that.

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3 hours ago, NorEaster27 said:

Unless we get temps into the 60s, we will be inverted.  You are seeing the LLJ strength on top of the inversion, the inversion would act to strength the jet, that’s what we are seeing on the models as the inversion trends more stout.  Best chance is your climo areas, immediate coast and the island

Most of the guidance has I 80 south and west of the Hudson River very near 60.

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10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Let's see if PSV gets gusts to 80 mph. 

 

Commack appears to be around 70 mph based on that map, ISP is 80 mph.  I should see upper 60s mph gusts based on that map at my house & my parent's house.  I doubt that actually happens but can see gusts into the 50s mph possibly.

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I think the make or break for the high-end wind gusts to be realized lies with the QPF & if we see the tinge of instability that some of the CAMs have been showing... The heavier rates will mix down some of those strong winds at 925/850 down to the surface as the squall line pushes through, and perhaps a bit before its arrival. Assuming it's a weak inversion, it most likely can't withstand that downward momentum. With PWATs running between 200%-350% of normal, thx to a fetch stretching all the way back to the Pacific, I'd take the over on this one. When I say over, I'm not referring to those gust maps... But I'm thinking 40-50mph gusts inland & closer to 65mph at the coast. That's nothing to sneeze at, but we'll see.

 

namconus_mslp_pwata_eus_48.png

gfs_mslp_pwata_atl_11.png

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
349 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

CTZ011-012-NYZ075-078>081-176>179-231015-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.201225T0200Z-201225T1400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
349 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
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4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Let's see if PSV gets gusts to 80 mph. 


Euro wind maps are always overdone. If it’s showing 80, we are good for 65. If it shows 70, 55-60 range. November 15 event verified really well. Actually last few events FRG has gusted at times past guidance

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1 hour ago, Psv said:


Euro wind maps are always overdone. If it’s showing 80, we are good for 65. If it shows 70, 55-60 range. November 15 event verified really well. Actually last few events FRG has gusted at times past guidance

That's about right, you deduct about 20%.  

But everything has some value.  You can still use that to determine maximum gust potential if a thunderstorm mixes it down.

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We are doing our Santa Run tomorrow evening, but the guys and I agreed to do a Severe Storm checkl early because it will end up being a mad dash to the firehouse Friday morning, if necessary.  Not what I was looking forward to for the day of the festivus. 

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