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December 24-25, 2020 -- High-Impact Weather Event


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19 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

I will take a 2013 - 2014 repeat 

We all will but what I'm saying is that there is no correlation between warm temps during the start of winter and an active and snowy winter later on. As much as it floats around on this board, it just isn't true

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Good Thursday morning everyone,  Just a quick cut and paste edit.   HIGH IMPACT wind damage and flood potential event by this time Christmas morning. Strongest winds in NJ/ne PA/se NYS rough

Here are some NAM forecast soundings for this upcoming event, compared to some soundings for April 13th of this year, when parts of the NJ shore gusted over 70 and 50+ gusts occurred all the way to Sc

12/24-25:  I think the wind damage potential is the largest threat from this rapidly deepening 980s surface low moving northward up the front into NYS predawn Christmas. SVR's possible (in my mind lik

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27 minutes ago, Sundog said:

12z NAM for the NYC area doesn't have the line of showers/storms coinciding with the strongest overhead winds. I'm really hoping that disjointed timing prevents the winds from mixing down as well as they could.

best winds in these situations are in any dry slot before the main area of rain, the heavy rain will stabilize the surface and limit mixing (outside of convection).  I almost always see the best winds right before the heavy rain, its fairly rare the biggest winds are actually around the forced line of convection (November storm was the exception)

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1 minute ago, AspiringMet said:

We all will but what I'm saying is that there is no correlation between warm temps during the start of winter and an active and snowy winter later on. As much as it floats around on this board, it just isn't true

But  comparing a one-day warmup to a whole period of warm weather is not accurate at all.

A one-day warmup is not indicative of an overall pattern.  That's why a winter like 2013-14 can be used here.  

It got warm for a day in December in an overall cold and snowy pattern.  When you start talking about a warm week or two, like 2011 or 2001, that's more indicative of a bad overall pattern, rather than a storm that took a different track in an otherwise cold and snowy pattern.

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3 hours ago, Analog96 said:

But  comparing a one-day warmup to a whole period of warm weather is not accurate at all.

A one-day warmup is not indicative of an overall pattern.  That's why a winter like 2013-14 can be used here.  

It got warm for a day in December in an overall cold and snowy pattern.  When you start talking about a warm week or two, like 2011 or 2001, that's more indicative of a bad overall pattern, rather than a storm that took a different track in an otherwise cold and snowy pattern.

thats a great point

 

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-240400-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0005.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.
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True flash freeze events are extremely rare, and even in this crazy setup, SEPA and all of NJ might avoid one on Christmas Day w/ guidance trending a little slower with the front and daytime heating offsetting cold air advection slightly. Christmas is going to be cold, but in order for a flash freeze, you need the temps to drop below freezing a few hours after precip ends. And there's going to be wind too to dry things out quickly.  Further west, I think you're going to get the flash freeze. We'll see how this pans out, but I'm feeling a little better that this aspect of the storm might not be a major issue at least where I live here in Bucks County, PA. 

nam3km_T2m_neus_fh34-53.gif

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3 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

True flash freeze events are extremely rare, and even in this crazy setup, SEPA and all of NJ might avoid one on Christmas Day w/ guidance trending a little slower with the front and daytime heating offsetting cold air advection slightly. Christmas is going to be cold, but in order for a flash freeze, you need the temps to drop below freezing a few hours after precip ends. And there's going to be wind too to dry things out quickly.  Further west, I think you're going to get the flash freeze. We'll see how this pans out, but I'm feeling a little better that this aspect of the storm might not be a major issue at least where I live here in Bucks County, PA. 

nam3km_T2m_neus_fh34-53.gif

Where in Bucks are you

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