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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that block is super stable as well

 

there’s a very well defined 50/50 ULL that’s feeding into the block; it’s the absolute opposite of transient 

 

not trying to sound too many alarms here, but the more this moves up in time, the more this pattern looks like March 2018/January 2011

These are for the entire run. It looks active to say the least 

31515768-1973-440B-9417-97554A1DA259.png

52A9DD66-0ADD-4FC7-97A8-74EB5A136965.png

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This is bullshit..

 

image.png.6a95f75a8477ab171ddd391485f7b050.pngYou throw runs like this in the garbage 

 

You don't run lows into 3 SD blocks.

 

When you see this you have to ignore the rest of what the run spits out. 

 

 

 

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Just now, PB GFI said:

This is bullshit..

 

image.png.6a95f75a8477ab171ddd391485f7b050.pngYou throw like this in the garbage 

 

You don't run lows into 3 SD blocks.

 

 

 

 

It digs the souther energy really far west at starting at like hour 168-180 

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3 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

It digs the souther energy really far west at starting at like hour 168-180 

 

This comes up east of the mountains not west. 

 

The model just sucks theres no nicer way to say it. 

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

This comes up east of the mountains not west. 

 

The model just sucks theres no nicer way to say it. 

Lol you can see it try to correct moving the low from Lake Ontario due east to the Gulf of Maine

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Just now, Nick Psomaras said:

Lol you can see it try to correct moving the low from Lake Ontario due east to the Gulf of Maine

 

Yeh, it's absurd.

It tries to phase with a piece of the N branch and it deepens in west of the Mountains.

The EPO is negative so the natural Arctic front is east of the Mountains.

 

The Para and all the ensembles see it, it's just a waste of an op run .

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4 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Lol you can see it try to correct moving the low from Lake Ontario due east to the Gulf of Maine

It looks one of the eps members for the end of next week. A few of them try to cut. It’s amazing how this run looks similar to that. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It looks one of the eps members for the end of next week. A few of them try to cut. It’s amazing how this run looks similar to that. 

All options are on the table but its a big change compared to 12z.

 

Ensembles  will paint the picture 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that block is super stable as well

 

there’s a very well defined 50/50 ULL that’s feeding into the block; it’s the absolute opposite of transient 

 

not trying to sound too many alarms here, but the more this moves up in time, the more this pattern looks like March 2018/January 2011

March 2018 was Epic up here in Northern Vermont!!

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5 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

All options are on the table but its a big change compared to 12z.

 

Ensembles  will paint the picture 

Yep. Another reason this run was poor was because  the -epo completely vanished. 

C548396B-ED2C-40F1-B7FA-A6443593111B.png

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