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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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For some real long range. This will likely cut for us 

 

 

Screenshot_20210122-043337_Chrome.jpg.797f14024f1137b97528779c0e1caf23.jpg

 

And then maybe we have to watch the backside 3 days later around the 8th so.

The airmass could be an issue tho.

 

Just a shot in the dark the pattern has wanted to do that this year. 

 

Screenshot_20210122-043501_Chrome.jpg.b0e1f26d86545d163c955cab5775091f.jpg

 

We need some good vibes today the EPS depresses me.

 

Maybe the rally monkey will show up later. 

We will see.

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Good morning this Friday Jan 22: Think consensus is developing that most here will enjoy a significant plowable snow event late Monday-Tuesday.  My take below based on 00z/22 ops and EPS/GEFS/NAEFS, and 06z GFS op. 

 

Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 22. Focus shifts from the Adirondacks today to the region from I84 to NC next week, then back north to the I84 corridor northward the first week of February. This may be as good as it gets for our membership this winter who like snow. One event at a time follows.
 
Today: I84 corridor particularly the Poconos, nw CT hills and nw NJ---though tonight a few flurries, but dustings up to an 1" of snow possible high terrain in isolated heavier snow showers late today-this evening. Might even see a flurry NYC?
 
Travelers into the northeast USA Noon Monday- 6PM Tuesday the 25th-26th: While still some uncertainty, if you have travel plans into the I84-I80 corridors or I95 Baltimore to NYC-New Haven Monday Night-Tuesday morning, prepare for delays due to snow, except snow-ice I78 southward in NJ to Baltimore. Expecting amounts to range from ~1" or less I90 in Mass (could be zero if the storm stays south), to an uncertain 1-5" CT with the least in northeast Connecticut (Ashford) and a less than certain forecast there, to between 4-7" se NYS, and 5-9" ne PA, nw NJ. The high side 9" amount is no guarantee but it's in some of the modeling. Best chance of 9" in ne PA is along I80.  LI/NYC my expectation this early is 1 to maybe as much as 6"??? with the best chance of 3"+ western LI/NYC. I expect plowing will be needed most of our area except maybe n CT/MA/ and the region along or just southeast of I95 BWI-NYC. Temps will be subfreezing throughout the event except if it starts Monday afternoon when it will take an hour or two to drop below freezing. Baltimore-Philly is in the ice-snow zone so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will get slippery there for a time, possibly as early as Noon Monday. Finally: the end of this event should be Tuesday afternoon, but it's possible that it could linger into the wee predawn hours of Wednesday?
 
Thursday Jan 28th: some sort of snow or ice will occur from NC to central NJ with focus either Baltimore or NC for several inches of hazardous snowfall. 
 
Two or three more events are expected between the 31st and Feb 7, though the snow and ice may be reserved mostly for the I84 corridor northward as it starts warming up a bit in the northeast.
 
Attached a NWS graphic ensemble 30+% chance of 3+" of snow Monday into early Tuesday. Blue is 50+%. This gives an idea of the focus only through 7AM Tuesday and it will snow beyond 7AM Tuesday- so this is conservative. Also the NAEFS qpf for the 24 hr period ending 00z/27 with .4" = to the 10MM line, and also the sfc temp for near 00z./27 which shows 0C along I95. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 5.24.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 6.13.19 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 6.13.44 AM.png

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These usually trend north as we get closer in time. Look at 2016. Models lost the storm for a couple days, they came back in a big way. We know how this ends.

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19 minutes ago, Jake302 said:

These usually trend north as we get closer in time. Look at 2016. Models lost the storm for a couple days, they came back in a big way. We know how this ends.

Depends on how far north though. Some do and some don’t. Mid Atlantic DC region may benefit this time if there are northward adjustments.  

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Storm signal definitely exists for late next week in the mid-atlantic. I would not really try to forecast anything more then that there is a signal until Monday. Just for some perspective. I'm going to show the GFS model output for the Monday/Tuesday storm a week out versus the output for the storm from 06z this morning. I know most of you know this I just think it is always helpful to really see how much models can change. 

 

00zjan19.png.7b235b3f733754f105df905e93ae5ea8.png

 

06zjan22.png.7270008d3cd780c815986738d60b41d3.png

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Overall my last 2 posts are really meant to just highlight that I expect pretty significant shifts in the evolution of the storm for the 29th over the next few days

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