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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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Just now, Robert said:

Good riddance to the GFS

Yep. Navy performed best with this storm, always had the low way south. Euro also did great never showing the low coming north like the garbage gfs. Canadian was too far north and too powerful with the low which fits its bias. Gfs was just garbage it kept flipping back and forth.

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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

Posted Images

Something to keep in mind. I was finishing up college in Boston in 2015. We had very little snow (less then NYC thus far) and we had one of the most epic months on record that rivaled the western mountains and the snow belt. While that its self is an exception. Winter is far from over. Especially if the blocking holds up. Your getting a good number of storm threats. Thats not the case in a lot of the really awful winters.  

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4 minutes ago, George said:

Yep. Navy performed best with this storm, always had the low way south. Euro also did great never showing the low coming north like the garbage gfs. Canadian was too far north and too powerful with the low which fits its bias. Gfs was just garbage it kept flipping back and forth.

I wouldnt give credit for the navy for anything lol.  It still has no precip for NYC for the first storm.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_fh60_trend.gif

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6 minutes ago, IsaacWxObserver said:

I wouldnt give credit for the navy for anything lol.  It still has no precip for NYC for the first storm.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_fh60_trend.gif

I know many here dislike the navy but for the second storm it looks like it had the right idea, being as far south as it was, though it’s definitely too weak for the first one. 

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8 minutes ago, George said:

I know many here dislike the navy but for the second storm it looks like it had the right idea, being as far south as it was, though it’s definitely too weak for the first one. 

What is with this ridiculous obsession with the navy?

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10 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Something to keep in mind. I was finishing up college in Boston in 2015. We had very little snow (less then NYC thus far) and we had one of the most epic months on record that rivaled the western mountains and the snow belt. While that its self is an exception. Winter is far from over. Especially if the blocking holds up. Your getting a good number of storm threats. Thats not the case in a lot of the really awful winters.  

Yeah that winter was epic, I remember at this point in the winter we had even less snow than this winter (Boston is around 17 inches, 2015 at this point in the winter was about 10 inches). We then proceeded to get hammered with multiple blizzards, with feb alone delivering more snow than most entire winters. What started as a mild and snowless winter ended up being the most epic winter I have ever experienced in my life, and will likely remain that way. After this point in the winter, Boston got 100 additional inches of snow. Winter isn’t even close to being over, and if anything what the models are showing for feb and March are closer to 2015 than last year, I think based on what they are showing we have a decent chance at getting something like 50%-75% of that winter

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1 minute ago, amonte1219 said:

What is with this ridiculous obsession with the navy?

He joined the forum at a time where people liked what the navy was showing for a storm and has been obsessed with it since 

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36 minutes ago, George said:

It’s a useful piece of guidance like the european and Canadian are, not saying it’s better than them (it’s not), but that doesn’t make it useless. I am definitely more obsessed with the navy than most here, and rely on it for my model analysis. Maybe I do a bit too much, I’m not sure yet. I’m going to keep my navy Canadian european blend for my model analysis for the next few storms, and will reevaluate then and see if I should make changes or stick with it. The reason why I started viewing the navy to begin with is there is an admin on another weather board I saw that uses the navy to do his analysis a lot and he has been fairly accurate over the past few years. One thing I don’t understand is why people are obsessed with what the gfs shows, it’s not a good model. I don’t even look at it when doing my model analysis

The gfs is a trash model but the navy is still worse. Until tonight's 0z run it had almost no precip for NYC metro

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7 minutes ago, IsaacWxObserver said:

The gfs is a trash model but the navy is still worse. Until tonight's 0z run it had almost no precip for NYC metro

I never see a meteorologist  use the Navy.

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And snowmaggedon jr did show up

 

20 inches for Boston over 9 days from 3 storms. 

 

Can't see the BZ  from a distance. 

 

Good Night.

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7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

And snowmaggedon jr did show up

 

20 inches for Boston over 9 days from 3 storms. 

 

Can't see the BZ  from a distance. 

 

Good Night.

Uh?

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6 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Uh?

I assume he's looking at the GFS, which has 22" for Boston over the next 9 days, while the CMC has 17" and the Euro about 5".  Regardless, I like that all 3 models are showing significant snowfall in the d7-d8 range for big chunks of the NE US, even if only the Euro is showing a big hit IMBY.  Nice to just see "consensus" on a major winter storm.  

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36 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

 

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Considering what happened with the modeling and the pattern for this week I won't begin to take this seriously until after the 12z runs on Thursday. Do you blame me?

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