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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Nice artic high!!!!

436D198D-A118-4B15-89EE-CCF5E6BF003B.png

Working its way into the source region here nicely. CMC has it further east. Good to see its presence on those two.

 

 

ecmwf_T850_us_fh192_trend.gif

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1 hour ago, CCB! said:

Quick $0.02 to my prior post (again, relating to the 21-22nd possible event) Conversely... Oscillate that configuration just a little bit ^^ with the NAO block repositioning just a bit more favorably (W/S) & you could thread a primary, or re-developing LP, riding the SE ridge (SWFE) & work something out that way, though thermals are questionable in that scenario. The op GFS wasn't that far off. So no reason to toss entirely, just noting some ens trends here.

12z Euro basically does this with the little bit of SE ridge being a help, not hindrance.

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Just now, DualJet said:

Come on everyone should be thrilled to see this showing up 

Oh yeah of course but things tend to be more delicate down there and we have posters down there. It’s a great run! 

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15 minutes ago, BL74 said:

Gfs: 

 

0AFA103F-FA75-4906-9E5C-C2FB00389322.png.c6ce1900c014a116332b54ecf4e17004.png

 

euro:

 

B05074EC-9EAA-4125-84BE-61E123F70F6E.png.a5f8af30ccad17561f9aee0e9611e369.png

 

more of what you expect to see underneath a block on the euro. 

To be more specific, more of what you'd expect to see with a stronger block thumbing into the Davis Strait vs a vortex curving the block across Greenland (More west w/the former [ECMWF], east w/the latter[GFS]) It'll be interesting to see if/how this trends on the EPS here for this all important feature vs the GEFS trends.

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Nice to see (finally) the Euro realize what the hell is going on in the North Hemisphere. And I’m not saying that as a weenie on a snow run, but in its handling of how the pattern should work down. 
 

We are getting ready to rock and roll, folks. Time to get excited. 

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