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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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So basically we want the energy down in the SW to move off the west coast? To not Cause a full lat -pna? Also I started seeing some blues pop up to Alaska starting yesterday which made me worried as well. Hopefully the block can hold tough for us for a couple more weeks 🤞

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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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15 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

So basically we want the energy down in the SW to move off the west coast? To not Cause a full lat -pna? Also I started seeing some blues pop up to Alaska starting yesterday which made me worried as well. Hopefully the block can hold tough for us for a couple more weeks 🤞

PNA still negative, but it works out with the strong block and negative EPO

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6 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

So basically we want the energy down in the SW to move off the west coast? To not Cause a full lat -pna? Also I started seeing some blues pop up to Alaska starting yesterday which made me worried as well. Hopefully the block can hold tough for us for a couple more weeks 🤞

 

I myself think the prime spot for the SW energy is just off the coast of roughly San Diego. But it can work as well further east into the CONUS southwest. Generally the positioning between these two locals provides a good setup for where the convergence of all the elements occurs in a prime spot for our snow chances in the east. The concerns with a full latitude trough in the west (-PNA) revolve more around having additional energy from the mid-latitude and northern stream dump into the weakness created by the energy in the southwest. And this is where the positioning (east/west) of the Southwest energy can play a part. The farther west this feature is, the less attractive it becomes to any energy streaming to its north, hopefully allowing this energy to pass by with little to no interaction. Conversely, the further east it goes the more attractive it becomes for energy to dump in. Hence my preference for this feature to be farther west as the odds increase that interaction is kept at a minimal. Of course this is all my opinion, others may feel differently.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I myself think the prime spot for the SW energy is just off the coast of roughly San Diego. But it can work as well further east into the CONUS southwest. Generally the positioning between these two locals provides a good setup for where the convergence of all the elements occurs in a prime spot for our snow chances in the east. The concerns with a full latitude trough in the west (-PNA) revolve more around having additional energy from the mid-latitude and northern stream dump into the weakness created by the energy in the southwest. And this is where the positioning (east/west) of the Southwest energy can play a part. The farther west this feature is, the less attractive it becomes to any energy streaming to its north, hopefully allowing this energy to pass by with little to no interaction. Conversely, the further east it goes the more attractive it becomes for energy to dump in. Hence my preference for this feature to be farther west as the odds increase that interaction is kept at a minimal. Of course this is all my opinion, others may feel differently.

Thanks it makes a ton of sense bc when we had the big run two days ago at 12z. The energy wasn’t Far East but also came out a lot quicker. Now that we see the energy staying there the better runs had it interacting with less northern vorts. So like you said either staying further west away from

them or having the first energy eject east quicker to not pool down in the SW 

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3 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

Thanks it makes a ton of sense bc when we had the big run two days ago at 12z. The energy wasn’t Far East but also came out a lot quicker. Now that we see the energy staying there the better runs had it interacting with less northern vorts. So like you said either staying further west away from

them or having the first energy eject east quicker to not pool down in the SW 

 Ejecting that Southwest energy is also an option as well, which could possibly be a strong signal as well. But as always that would involve timing and a little luck as well. But once that energy gets ejected we are looking at a one and done deal as it changes the overall pattern. Keep that cut off planted there with little to no interaction and it possibly sets us up with multiple opportunities as energy continually streams through the various jets around that feature. In the coming days everything will be contingent on how the models handle that SW energy and any interaction between it and the mid-latitude/northern streams. As we have seen, we have had multiple and varied solutions pop up on the models recently. Expect that to continue until such time as the models resolve that issue. 

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Probably one of the more unique h5 setups I've seen...You got some amazing continental tellies in your favor along with some what seem to be brutal ones. -EPO domination seems to be the trend with a -NAO keeping the trough embedded across the CONUS. SE ridge trying to nose itself into the party and with the -PNA it'll try to push the storm track north, only to be counteracted by the block in Greenland. So much resistance that the pattern has no choice but to remain active  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-14 at 9.55.58 AM.png

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2 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Probably one of the more unique h5 setups I've seen...You got some amazing continental tellies in your favor along with some brutal ones. -EPO domination seems to be the trend with a -NAO keeping the trough embedded across the CONUS. SE ridge trying to nose itself into the party and with the -PNA it'll try to push the storm track north, only to be counteracted by the block in Greenland. So much resistance that the pattern has no choice but to remain active  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-14 at 9.55.58 AM.png

 

That isn't a bad look at all. The higher heights in the south are as you want to see them, flat and spread across the se, gulf and into Texas. The influence from the 50/50 is in a good spot with lower pressure anomalies running from it into the east. Strong -EPO dumping cross polar flow into the CONUS. The overall look is one of overrunning events running west to east with the possibilities provided with the 50/50, of amplification up the coast as these systems reach the east coast.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

That isn't a bad look at all. The higher heights in the south are as you want to see them, flat and spread across the se, gulf and into Texas. The influence from the 50/50 is in a good spot with lower pressure anomalies running from it into the east. Strong -EPO dumping cross polar flow into the CONUS. The overall look is one of overrunning events running west to east with the possibilities provided with the 50/50, of amplification up the coast as these systems reach the east coast.

Yup this screams over running. Nice write up earlier btw. 

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17 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Probably one of the more unique h5 setups I've seen...You got some amazing continental tellies in your favor along with some brutal ones. -EPO domination seems to be the trend with a -NAO keeping the trough embedded across the CONUS. SE ridge trying to nose itself into the party and with the -PNA it'll try to push the storm track north, only to be counteracted by the block in Greenland. So much resistance that the pattern has no choice but to remain active  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-14 at 9.55.58 AM.png

I would think this pattern wouldn’t produce a huge snowstorm, maybe more like several moderate ones which I’m good with 

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4 minutes ago, Vitaliy Goldin said:

I would think this pattern wouldn’t produce a huge snowstorm, maybe more like several moderate ones which I’m good with 

 

Though this setup doesn't offer the dynamics you would expect in a wound up storm (unless it explodes of the coast) don't under estimate the snowfall you can receive from weaker systems that have ample moisture to tap into from the Gulf to run over the colder air to the north. Many of our bigger snow storms have occurred in such a fashion.

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2 minutes ago, Vitaliy Goldin said:

I would think this pattern wouldn’t produce a huge snowstorm, maybe more like several moderate ones which I’m good with 

Only argument to that is when you have such a tight barometric and thermal gradient centered across the Central-Eastern US you increase your chances of seeing moisture enhanced rogue lows...These aren't your MECS pressure readings of sub 990 mb, but could still pack one hell of a punch

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2 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Only argument to that is when you have such a tight barometric and thermal gradient centered across the Central-Eastern US you increase your chances of seeing moisture enhanced rogue lows...These aren't your MECS pressure readings of sub 990 mb, but could still pack one hell of a punch

 

I really like seeing all the confluence converging in the mid-Atlantic states. It's a prime look for MBY (my back yard). I am not so sure those in the NE would be particularly fond of this look though as this would suggests snows would be confined to the south of them unless something can amplify off the coast.

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16 minutes ago, Vitaliy Goldin said:

I would think this pattern wouldn’t produce a huge snowstorm, maybe more like several moderate ones which I’m good with 

 

For those in the enhanced colder boundary zone this over running set-up could yield several snow on snow events, unheard of for years in the Northern mid Atlantic. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I really like seeing all the confluence converging in the mid-Atlantic states. It's a prime look for MBY (my back yard). I am not so sure those in the NE would be particularly fond of this look though as this would suggests snows would be confined to the south of them unless something can amplify off the coast.

Yup this targets the snowmaggedon region...Not saying the amounts will be the same at all but those types of storm tracks are more likely 

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13 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Yup this targets the snowmaggedon region...Not saying the amounts will be the same at all but those types of storm tracks are more likely 

 

I approve of this post.

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2 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

There is no shortage of energy around.  We just need a phase. Seems like it is so hard to get one .

60006cd84e288.png

You only need a phase for big snows but we will take small or any size!

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2 minutes ago, rossi said:

You only need a phase for big snows but we will take small or any size!

Very true, you can get 10" or less snowstorms with little or no phase.

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