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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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11 minutes ago, Stealyourface86 said:

Yah, i was just gonna post this! It’s very confusing with the maps having multiple systems totals all in one!

 

Gonna be interesting to see if they make a thread for each one and how

I think we'll have one thread for Thu-Fri started tomorrow.

Then a separate thread for Sunday started Friday.

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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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16 minutes ago, Jake302 said:

 

That would be perfect to track another potentially significant snowstorm while it's snowing for 48 hours

Agree 100%. I've always wanted to track a snowstorm in the short-range as a snowstorm occurs. Some interesting stats relating to the frequency of our snowfalls:

Philly's record (1967) for # of days with >0.1 inches of snowfall in Feb: 11

NYC's record for # of days with >0.1 inches of snowfall in Feb:  Also 11 (Central Park, 1964)

DC's record for # of days with >0.1 in inches of snowfall in Feb: 10 (2003)

 

Philly's current # of days with >0.1 inches of snowfall in Feb: 4

NYC's current # of days with >0.1 inches of snowfall in Feb: 4 (Central Park). 

DC's current # of days with >0.1 inches of snowfall in Feb: 3 (Reagan airport)

 

We have a legit shot to break these records. Tomorrow could get NYC another day, and with the possibility of Thurs-Fri for all three cities, then weekend storm, then midweek storm next week. We will be within reach of this record. Pattern does not look to shift anytime soon, I genuinely think at least one of these cities will break this record unless we are very unlucky. Fingers crossed this storm on Thurs-Fri-Sat dumps snow from Mid-Atl to NYC region.     

 

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Looked through the next 384 hrs of GFS, only 2 slides showed above freezing temps in NYC and only 6 for Philly. I believe none of these above-freezing slides were above 45 degrees either, and most were in the 30s max. GFS shows a long cold stretch, below freezing from DC to NYC from Feb 15 up to Feb 21.

 

Edit: Actually none of the slides were even above 40 in NYC or Philly. Max temp for Philly for the entire run is 35, NYC is less than that (maybe 33, tt didn't show temps at that time). Just a wicked cold run. 

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6 minutes ago, Jake302 said:

We probably have about 50 miles or so of wiggle room in either direction. Maybe 100. 

That would bring decent snows up to Middlesex/Monmouth!!

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