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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wave 1 and 2 mostly miss and if Sunday trends warmer they could easily see less than an inch for the week 

And if wave 1 and 2 trend north, and bring a combined 3 or 4 inches and Sunday is a big snowstorm, it could easily be over 15".

That has just as much chance of happening.

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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

CFC79B3B-53A2-4DB4-B36D-193AB1394369.gif

Similar depiction as the GEFS which was definitely improved today.

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5 minutes ago, CooL said:


agreed, hopefully the euro throws us weenies a bone today with a blizzard 

I'd be happy if it showed a SECS, TBH

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1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

You really think that is the most likely scenario?

The PV has been trending west  and the blocking breaking down. 

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Just now, CooL said:

fwiw the cmc ens like Sunday and Wednesday 

They might be the single best piece of guidance we have in the medium and long term.

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't say that the TPV has been trending in any particular direction. if anything, the blocking has gotten more potent as lead time has decreased

 

the ULL in the Atlantic has trended stronger as well

 

I know that the metro has gotten a bit unlucky with the last couple of storms, but downplaying this pattern doesn't make much sense to me. the same exact thing happened before the blizzard, where people were talking about how much the blocking sucked. now, instead, it's that February isn't that good anymore and that the metro won't get much more snow for the month

 

I would let the pattern play out before there are any judgements on how effective it was or not. even since this month began, there has been a blizzard, an overperforming coastal storm, another small storm for NNJ/LHV, and a probable crusher for the Mid-Atlantic. even if none of the numerous future threats don't work out, it still sounds like a pretty loaded pattern to me, and one that has produced

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh66_trend.gif

I agree, just joshin around here. There are too literal posts going around about whats to come, meanwhile they just got dumped on Sunday and the models were lost in that said town. 

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4 minutes ago, DualJet said:

I agree, just joshin around here. There are too literal posts going around about whats to come, meanwhile they just got dumped on Sunday and the models were lost in that said town. 

Yeah I thought you were better than that.  I didn't see the sarcasm.  If anybody thinks they "know" exactly what's going to happen beyond even 36 hours in this pattern, I have beachfront property to sell them in Kansas!

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pressure couplet produced leads to strong baroclinicity, so there's a lot of precip even with a weak SLP

 

it's easily cold enough down to AC and Montauk as well

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.pnggfs-ens_apcpn24_us_28.png

Some decent hitters in there. Some warm, some mix, some real nice ones. What a 2 week period we entered..l (basically whole month). The fatigue is real lol

 

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B66C1DDB-8E0D-40CA-BC5F-4629950C5E12.png

CDAF19B9-E6E7-4871-9414-A0E3B7EE9C61.png

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Random Question:  is it right to say storms under or over perform.  Imo they really don’t.  They are always going to do what they are/were going to do.  It’s the forecasts/models the under or over perform. Thoughts? 

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Just now, Adam said:

Random Question:  is it right to say storms under or over perform.  Imo they really don’t.  They are always going to do what they are/were going to do.  It’s the forecasts/models the under or over perform. Thoughts? 

It's a misinterpretation of the definition.  Of course, the weather is going to do whatever it is going to do.

But performance of a storm is based on forecasts and modeling going up into the storm vs reality.

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