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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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not even sure if I have to show the precip here

 

massive banana high that remains firmly in place, the thermal gradient alone produces a nuke

 

this was all caused by the lobe initially hanging back

 

gfs_mslpa_us_fh144-168.gifgfs_z500_vort_us_fh144-168.gif

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Just enough offset in the H5 evolution to get a sneaky warm punch aloft, not by much though. Shortwave was stronger, and TPV took a touch longer to get overhead, so heights were allowed to rise a little more along the coast early on. Can swing either way.. but man, the source region over top is unreal, and the antecedent airmass is solid. Let’s see if it holds... 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

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Yikes! That would be a lot of ZR in some places. Interesting to watch the ZR show up on several storms going forward (weekend and this one now), pretty rare to see ZR around here, even virtual ZR lol. Either way it's a good sign that cold air is around, beats the cutters that were shown before, and I take it to mean we're just a couple steps in the right direction away from being an all or mostly snow storm for most of us. 

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There’s a possible sub-950 low spinning in the Bering Sea which spits out the Tuesday energy into the PNW - I’m guessing this (Energy cycling out of a major Alaskan storm) is not any models forte and so what and when hits the west coast will probably tell us a lot. 

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1 hour ago, Snowman11 said:

Feb 2010

Jan 2011

March 2018

Feb 2015, multiple Miller bs. Miller as are ok but the storms that deliver multiple feet at least where I live are often Miller bs. That’s why Feb 2015 was so great, I don’t think we have ever had a year with so many Miller bs like that. 

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