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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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14 minutes ago, Jake Stofman said:

Yeah. Think it’s time for a Tuesday thread. 

F5D4490C-B64D-4C58-8E9B-5887722CB33F.jpeg

I agree but I’m gonna pump the breaks on my excitement for a massive snowstorm, The euro still brings a lot of ice (though it has more snow before the changeover than previous runs), navy has a late transfer and more warm air, and the Canadian doesn’t have a low. For the early feb blizzard the navy and Canadian especially had more warm air in Boston bringing down snow totals and I ignored them and got burned when I forecasted 20 inches of snow in Boston. I’m not going to make the same mistake again discounting the navy. Canadian looks weird though having no low, other guidance is split between a massive snowstorm and some front end snow before a changeover to sleet, ice, and then rain. That said, I’m going to keep an eye on it and not discount it just because it’s different. Right now im doing a 50/30/20 (european guidance navy Canadian guidance) blend) to try and see where we are at, and right now it looks good for a decent amount of front end snow then a changeover to sleet and then ice, which is a much better look than yesterday afternoons models.  
 

edit- didn’t see the new Canadian guidance before making this post, looks like the not having a low thing was just a blip run. Still the point remains this has the feel of a complicated setup with several different precip types rather than a pure snowstorm, now the big question is do we only get 1-2/2-4 inches of snow and then it’s ice the rest of the storm, or is it a colder solution with 6-12+ inches of snow before ending as some sleet or freezing rain? Or is it somewhere in the middle? 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nothing like +SN at 16 degrees at KJFK

 

gfs_2021021112_fh120_sounding_KJFK.png

Just making demdrites from 500mb down to just above the surface lol. 17’k feet of snow production ... filthy

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7 minutes ago, djdude2122 said:

 

WIll there be ratios with this storm like yesterday?

It will definitely start with high ratios, but if you transition to sleet,, obviously the ratios will drop rapidly.

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3 minutes ago, George said:

I agree but I’m gonna pump the breaks on my excitement for a massive snowstorm, The euro still brings a lot of ice (though it has more snow before the changeover than previous runs), navy has a late transfer and more warm air, and the Canadian doesn’t have a low. For the early feb blizzard the navy and Canadian especially had more warm air in Boston bringing down snow totals and I ignored them and got burned when I forecasted 20 inches of snow in Boston. I’m not going to make the same mistake again discounting the navy. Canadian looks weird though having no low, other guidance is split between a massive snowstorm and some front end snow before a changeover to sleet, ice, and then rain. That said, I’m going to keep an eye on it and not discount it just because it’s different. Right now im doing a 50/30/20 (european guidance navy Canadian guidance) blend) to try and see where we are at, and right now it looks good for a decent amount of front end snow then a changeover to sleet and then ice, which is a much better look than yesterday afternoons models.  
 

edit- didn’t see the new Canadian guidance before making this post, looks like the not having a low thing was just a blip run. Still the point remains this has the feel of a complicated setup with several different precip types rather than a pure snowstorm, now the big question is do we only get 1-2/2-4 inches of snow and then it’s ice the rest of the storm, or is it a colder solution with 6-12+ inches of snow before ending as some sleet or freezing rain? Or is it somewhere in the middle? 

Oh I agree. It’s tough to say right now who will see what. Regardless this seems to be impactful 

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