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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II


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I think it's safe to say "here we go" for Sunday - Tuesday in the Midwest and Northeast!   The pattern features a west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, large shortwave, confluence ahead of it over New

the fact that we have the signal for an Arctic jet-infused Miller A while a historic blizzard is ongoing and before a highly anomalous blocking pattern resets is totally astounding   LFG

Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right?    The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Que

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4 minutes ago, Jake302 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_45.png

Edit: Just look at these winds, wow. This would be blizzard conditions verbatim if you are snowing.

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_41.png

 

There are deeper members on the ensembles.

If the S branch can come out 12 hours earlier and phase earlier the look could get even better. 

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7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There are deeper members on the ensembles.

If the S branch can come out 12 hours earlier and phase earlier the look could get even better. 

Better phase and capture we could have really a long duration event too

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Just now, Adam said:

Better phase and capture we could have really a long duration event too

 

It would just bomb it out earlier hvy snow would get back to 84.

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The Mean dropped this run. 

E621907E-630D-4B5E-AD18-F73D04DD74CC.png

70424EF6-0490-4725-B496-235B33D8F6A1.png

Then there was lucky p 13.  Mailed from my back yard to yours. Oh how we pray. 

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2 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Then there was lucky p 13.  Mailed from my back yard to yours. Oh how we pray. 

19 would of been great if it gained a little more north 😂

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Honestly, not worried about a cutter one bit.  With a block like that and living up here in coal country NEPA I’m worried about suppression more so than anything 

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1 minute ago, RoaDawg said:

Honestly, not worried about a cutter one bit.  With a block like that and living up here in coal country NEPA I’m worried about suppression more so than anything 

It’s not going to cut correct. Question should be how far north does the primary get west of the mountains. The west based block will be strong.

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4 minutes ago, Vitaliy Goldin said:

It’s not going to cut correct. Question should be how far north does the primary get west of the mountains. The west based block will be strong.

There's a limit to how far south and north this can go given the pressure gradient. The threat zone in my opinion has the Mid Atlantic right in the middle but not always does a storm take that median track...Might need a cone of uncertainty for snowstorms now hahah

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I keep on telling myself don’t bite keep your expectations low But it’s been such a long time that we seen a storm like that show up on the models

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