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Good morning gang. With the overload of model data available and being analyzed, I thought this morning would be a good time to take a step back and re-analyze this setup from a birds eye view. Often

Give it up for @brooklynwx99 y'all. fairly sure he hasn’t slept since Wednesday!

Any weather-related reason to post right now?     Classic 95 1-2 footer coming IMO. ❄️

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1 minute ago, Wxman0578 said:

The outcome from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast will be determined on how far north or south the primary tracks through the OH valley/Mid South and how quickly the transfer takes place to the VA capes. The high looks to be in a good position for CAD at least with the waa thump. Sooner that primary weakens and tracks over/dies over KY, the better it is for the Mid Atlantic as there would be little to no lag time between the end of the waa and to the CCB. 
 

Models are just that...models...it’s guidance. It’s a simulation of how these pieces will come together several days out and some of the pieces have yet to enter the CONUS. Throw off the initialization and you throw off other things. This explains the variance between the euro, gfs, cmc, ukmet, icon. I believe by 12z runs Thu 1/28 we will see better consensus at 72 hr prior to onset. Overall synoptic features in better place minus the usual nuisance details of where the r/s line sets up, accumulations etc. 

 

if we do see a tuck/stall like the euro, tidal flooding and onshore winds may be a real problem from DE to NJ, NY to RI and MA. Interesting setup evolving. 

Terrific post, thank you for dropping in! While many of the members here are obviously interested in snow, it's an astute point with regard to the last sentence here. Legit coastal flooding threat growing as well.

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3 minutes ago, DemonDeacons said:

It will be interesting to see how/when/where all that WC energy migrates across the Sierra, Great Basin, and Central Rockies 

Yes indeed. Welcome to the madness. Pull up a seat, kick back & relax.

 

giphy-downsized-large.gif

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Mt. Holly AFD remarks. Keeping it general for now, but open to the high ceiling solutions.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system
Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic 

What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update.
Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the
low, but even with the minor differences, could result in
significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for
the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a blend of guidance.

Timing: There are still some large differences between models
with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as
early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday,
depending on how progressive the system is. 

Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big
factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with
regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our
region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region.
If the track is further south, as some of the operational models
are trending, it could be more snow. 

Precipitation amounts: We won't have a better idea on
precipitation amounts through this event until at least
Saturday.

Other hazards: As is often the case with coastal lows, winds
could be a concern, especially near the coast. given the
differences in timing and tracks, a blend of guidance will tend
to smooth out the peak gusts in these situations, so have gone
above guidance with winds, primarily on Monday which looks like
it could be the peak of the winds. For now though, this is still
below wind advisory levels.
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3 hours ago, George said:

It’s the gfs, with now good the navy european guidance and Canadian guidance look Gfs can be ignored in my opinion. Garbage model

Even after 25 years of tracking on the models I find I still learn something new everyday. Even from the newbies. I thank you. I will make a note, GFS sucks, GO NAVY!!! ;)

 

3 hours ago, earthlight said:

It’s as if many of you have never tracked a possible “big one” before. We’re almost at the classic time frame when every global model loses (or almost loses) the storm entirely and mass panic ensues 😀

Is that still a thing? It has been so long since we had a legit shot at a MEC/KU to track I have no idea. I remember the good old days where like clockwork right around day 5 everything went to hell and Ji on American Weather would have his epic melt down canceling winter. Of course with Ji that was every other day so nothing new there.

 

33 minutes ago, COD player said:

Man I need a JEB walk in blizzard like conditions with my dog. It’s been a while. Wait....do people still say JEB walk? 

JEB's doing his walking down in Texas now.

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1 minute ago, ZachF103 said:

Hate to ask stupid questions but ehat is a KU?. I know what HECS, and MECS are but have no idea what a KU is

A kucini storm I think..an old dude they named these historic esk storms after bc he came up with the ingredients that you need when you have these..or something like that lol

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Just now, ZachF103 said:

Hate to ask stupid questions but ehat is a KU?. I know what HECS, and MECS are but have no idea what a KU is

Not stupid at all :) - All fall under the same umbrella. I think the weather world just has a thing for acronyms sometimes, lol.

 

KU is short for Kocin-Uccelini, two of the more renowned meteorologists who literally wrote the book on big-league northeast snowstorms.

 

9781878220646: Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and Volume 2 Set. (Volume 32)  - AbeBooks - Kocin, Paul J.; Uccellini, Louis W.: 1878220640

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1 minute ago, BrandonAsbury said:

A kucini storm I think..an old dude they named these historic esk storms after bc he came up with the ingredients that you need when you have these..or something like that lol

Hahahah KUCINI. That made me laugh so hard 

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  • dmillz25 changed the title to 2021 Blizzard Discussion/Obs (Northeast/Mid Atlantic)
  • 33andrain changed the title to **1/31/21-2/2/21 - MECS**
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