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Good morning gang. With the overload of model data available and being analyzed, I thought this morning would be a good time to take a step back and re-analyze this setup from a birds eye view. Often

Give it up for @brooklynwx99 y'all. fairly sure he hasn’t slept since Wednesday!

Any weather-related reason to post right now?     Classic 95 1-2 footer coming IMO. ❄️

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1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

It still gives us that extra band that rotates back down.  ANOTHER reminder of 1996.  I remember waking up at 8 AM to two feet on the ground and thinking it was totally over, then we ripped again and got five extra inches!

I’ve said this already, these back side potential can produce when you have a stalled and occluded low.  Yes.  Akin to 96.  Just extends the duration and pumps the totals.  

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Here in Liberty I think I can lock in 10-18 inches, anything above that is gravy; same with Lynbrook LI; so I'm glad I stayed up here.

 

Love LONG duration events ( 24-36 hours ) not 6-8 hour events

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2 minutes ago, deform98 said:

I’ve said this already, these back side potential can produce when you have a stalled and occluded low.  Yes.  Akin to 96.  Just extends the duration and pumps the totals.  

yes and I buy it this time, because that low is still at or south of our latitude.  When models show wraparound and the low is by ACK and moving away, I generally don't buy it.

But that low is still off the NJ coast and not moving fast.

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2 minutes ago, deform98 said:

I’ve said this already, these back side potential can produce when you have a stalled and occluded low.  Yes.  Akin to 96.  Just extends the duration and pumps the totals.  

Being 9 years old for 96 I never thought I’d see a return... yet here we are 25 years later.

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Love seeing the Para just about in line with the OP GFS considering how different they were back in December. 

when first introduced two winters ago, the para would have shown 40-60" for this, area wide. lmao

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Para has been locked in for 3 days. 
 

for LI folks, Consensus seems to be 12-16” from nassau out to central Suffolk. Less east of there. Maybe a few higher amounts, so nice storm coming, but not an all timer for us. 
 

mix line seems to be William Floyd parkway or so, which is pretty common 

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Just now, DemonDeacons said:

Am I correct in reading that metro Boston is going lower due to changeover early on GFS?

Looks like it. Tucked in scenario isn't helping eastern areas of SNE. Sucks.

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  • dmillz25 changed the title to 2021 Blizzard Discussion/Obs (Northeast/Mid Atlantic)
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