Jump to content

February 9, 2021: Northeast Overrunning Light Snow Event


Recommended Posts

RGEM is pretty amped, but also has a stronger press from the high near Maine. It gives precip (mix to rain) to Southern areas unlike NAM, and shows snow in NNJ: image.png.cb95762a5b9467690cf28ed29bbf1f8f.png 

That high near ME/Canada is our cold source, let's watch how it trends. Surface temps are trending down across most models. I think this could be another overperformer for NNJ (2-4 inches) honestly. Snow is on the ground to help with low level cold, plus we have a frigid day beforehand (Monday). Models have been trending South with the precip as well over the past 24 hours. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 315
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Closing in on 5”

I understand the dewpoints will rapidly increase once the winds turn E/SE late tonight into tomorrow morning.    However, I think it is interesting that even though the RGEM and NAM converge

I am going to make one comment on this storm, after evaluating all meteorological data. I find it very hard to believe that anyone north of I 195, unless on the immediate coast, is going to see p

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, Oglem said:

RGEM is pretty amped, but also has a stronger press from the high near Maine. It gives precip (mix to rain) to Southern areas unlike NAM, and shows snow in NNJ: image.png.cb95762a5b9467690cf28ed29bbf1f8f.png 

That high near ME/Canada is our cold source, let's watch how it trends. Surface temps are trending down across most models. I think this could be another overperformer for NNJ (2-4 inches) honestly. Snow is on the ground to help with low level cold, plus we have a frigid day beforehand (Monday). Models have been trending South with the precip as well over the past 24 hours. 


RGEM didn’t give anyone more than 3.5” today, trash model. Garbage 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, amugs said:

Watch it be right on this. Just have that feeling. 

It might be.  It's a very simple system.  This is the kind of system you'd think the GFS could be good at handling

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DualJet said:

HRRR has it starting even earlier.  Just not sure to trust it yet.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

Definitely understand the concern after its handling of today's storm. But the dynamics are different so . . . . maybe?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mophstymeo said:

Definitely understand the concern after its handling of today's storm. But the dynamics are different so . . . . maybe?

It actually didn't do that bad with this storm.  We need to stop relying on snow maps.

Liquid equivalent was actually predicted very well by the models.

Ratios were much higher than the snow maps predicted.  That's where it went wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, DualJet said:

HRRR has it starting even earlier.  Just not sure to trust it yet.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

Wow, that is a huge shift for Southern areas. I think the earlier start is what places like SEPA, SNJ, need to get in on this. Also, for CNJ and NNJ, keep in mind the ratios will be high with this one. Temps in the teens to 20s during the start, rising throughout however. Looking forward to seeing what comes out at 00z from NAM. Fingers crossed HRRR can lead the way on this one. It is quite good, and if anything it was too warm in spots today.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 33andrain changed the title to February 9, 2021: Northeast Overrunning Light Snow Event
  • 33andrain unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...